RADIO
Baseball's offseason continues to trickle in moves as opposed to flooding us with them, but the latest batch seem interesting from a fantasy perspective. Joe Musgrove's 4.77 ERA last year may be a big reason prognosticators don't love Pittsburgh's side of the Gerrit Cole trade, but he may have the talent to replace Cole himself.
Likewise, Randal Grichuk's journey to Canada figures to let him see the field everyday. His power is the real deal and his warts aren't as bad as you might think, giving him some attractive sleeper appeal if your league mates forget about him.
Both of the above assertions are fairly bold, so here's the numbers to back them up.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Joe Musgrove (SP/RP, PIT)
Musgrove's 4.77 ERA in 109 1/3 IP wasn't great, but the underlying 4.03 xFIP suggests that he deserved better. He was particularly enticing over 31 1/3 IP as a reliever last year, during which he compiled a 51.9% GB% and 25.8% K% (44.9% and 21.2%, respectively, for the season). If he can translate his success as an RP to his anticipated starting role with the Pirates, he'll be worth owning in all formats.
Musgrove's raw stuff suggests that he can do it. His fastball was far too predictable last year (65.6% Zone%), but still managed an impressive 9.1% SwStr% thanks to a fairly high spin rate (2,351 RPM). Using it as a strike less often may cause a small increase in Musgrove's 6.1% BB%, but it might be worth it to get better results on balls in play (.335/.380/.608 line last year).
Musgrove also features strong secondary offerings. His favorite last season was a slider thrown 27.6% of the time. Its 13% SwStr%, 47.2% Zone%, and 38.3% chase rate make it a solid pitch in most situations. It's not a true put away offering, but Musgrove's change (19.8% SwStr%, 37.2% Zone%, 41.7% chase) and curve (17.7% SwStr%, 33.5% Zone%, 41.9% chase) are both great at ending PAs. Musgrove doesn't throw a ton of either (9.8% changeups, 9% curves), and when the change hangs it gets slaughtered (.395/.415/.658 last year). Still, the conversion back to a full-time starting role should force Musgrove to throw these pitches more often.
Musgrove's sinker will not help his K% (5.1% SwStr%, 48.3% Zone%), but its 70.7% GB% makes it the perfect weapon to induce a ground ball whenever Musgrove decides he needs one. The Pirates have the projected infield defense to capitalize on a high GB%, as 1B Josh Bell (six DRS), 2B Josh Harrison (six), and 3B David Freese (eight) all rank well above average defensively. Shortstop Jordy Mercer also has a strong defensive reputation even if last year's -1 DRS was more indicative of an average performance.
That group is considerably better than what Musgrove is leaving behind in Houston. Both 2B Jose Altuve (three) and SS Carlos Correa (four) were above average by DRS, but not by enough to negate questionable glovework by 1B Yulieski Gurrel (-5) and 3B Alex Bregman (-3). Musgrove himself is an excellent fielder (five DRS) who did not allow many hard-hit ground balls last year (80.9 mph average grounder exit velocity), so Pittsburgh's infield should have no problem getting the .233 BABIP Musgrove allowed on grounders last year under .200.
The outfield is a different story, as Houston's defense out there (11 OAA) ranked much better than Pittsburgh's (-7) a season ago. Musgrove's .204 BABIP allowed on fly balls suggests that it didn't help him that much though, especially considering that he limited the contact quality against him by both average airborne exit velocity (91.5 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (6%).
Those metrics also make Musgrove's 16.4% HR/FB difficult to swallow. His upcoming ballpark switch will help in this regard, as Pittsburgh limited homers from both sides of the plate (90 HR factor vs. RHB, 96 vs. LHB) while Houston provided a slight boost to each (102 for RHB, 103 for LHB). Between the new park and the fact that Musgrove wasn't hit that hard last year, a league average or better HR/FB seems like a safe projection moving forward.
With 15 GS and 30+ IP out of the bullpen, Musgrove should qualify as both a starter and reliever in all formats. The .315 BABIP and 16.4% HR/FB he allowed seem a little bit unlucky, while his stuff suggests a fantasy-friendly K% that he admittedly hasn't shown yet. Add it all together, and Pirates fans may be asking "Gerrit who?" by the end of 2018.
Verdict: Champ
Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR)
Grichuk's .238/.285/.473 triple slash line with 22 HR and six swipes in 442 PAs wasn't quite enough to move the needle in fantasy, but prorating it to 600 PAs gets you to 30 HR. That's a pretty good start.
Prorating power numbers like that doesn't always work, but Grichuk has the raw power and approach to get it done. Statcast loves him, as his average airborne exit velocity (95.2 mph) ranked 40th in the league (min. 100 BBEs) while his rate of Brls/BBE (15.7%) ranked 9th. These numbers aren't new for Grichuk, who averaged 95 mph and 9.8% in 2016 and 97.9 mph and 17.8% (!) in 2015. When he hits the ball, it goes very far.
Many guys with this type of profile fail to lift enough of their batted balls, but Grichuk is not among their number. Last year's 42.7% FB% was a hair below his career norm (43.1%), ensuring that he hits enough flies to make the most of his power. He also pulls plenty of his flies (27.5% last year, 29% career), enabling all of his raw power to travel the path of least resistance to the cheap seats.
Grichuk's new home park will also increase his power production. Toronto played exactly neutral for right-handed power last season with a HR factor of 100, but St. Louis curtailed it with a factor of 90. Toronto's factors are all over the place, sometimes inflating right-handed power significantly (105 in 2015, for example). Grichuk might lose a couple of singles to his new park (1B factors of 102 vs. 99), but overall it should be a boon for his fantasy value.
The knock against Grichuk has always been his K%, and indeed last season's 30.1% K% was difficult to stomach in fantasy. However, it masked a career-best SwStr% (13.6%, never previously below 15%) and only slightly worse than average 35.4% chase rate. Grichuk's 51.2% Swing% is likely high enough to end most PAs before he has a chance to K as well. Grichuk is still likely to strikeout too often, but he shouldn't be 30% K% bad in 2018.
His BABIP is another story. Last year's .293 mark depended on an elevated LD% (21.4% vs. 18.6% career), career best 8.3% IFFB% (10.3% career), and .297 BABIP on grounders. His career .285 BABIP on grounders may lead optimists to believe that he will maintain an elevated figure, but he won't. He was only shifted in 69 of 259 possible PAs last season despite a 74.3% Pull% on the ground, and fared well in the small sample (.324). Grichuk offers above average footspeed (27.8 ft./sec according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric), but there is no way somebody who pulls that many grounders can beat the shift long term.
His average exit velocity on ground balls also cratered last year, declining from 89.5 mph in 2016 to just 81.6 mph last season. Grichuk's BABIP on grounders could fall by over 100 points without a significant change in approach.
That gives Grichuk a common fantasy profile: low batting average with tons of power. A 30-HR season is a conservative projection, with upside for 40+ if he has one of those magical years everybody with this profile seems to have at least once. There are a lot of worse bets than using a late pick to see if this is Grichuk's year.
Verdict: Champ
