X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Dansby Swanson and Kurt Suzuki

Baseball Savant has added an "Expected Stats" tab to its Statcast Leaderboard, making it easier than ever before to look up a given player's xBA (Expected Batting Average), xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage), and xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average). These metrics use launch angle and exit velocity to predict how a given player should be doing without regards to actual results.

These stats have their uses, but they're not that valuable from a fantasy perspective. Variables such as defense, foot speed, and shifts can permanently separate a player's expected performance from his actual production, and most leagues don't care about expected anything. The site is also structured to favor xwOBA more than the other two statistics, but its inputs don't correlate that well with traditional 5x5 roto leagues.

The increased availability of these stats means they're likely to pop up in more fantasy articles moving forward, but remember that they are a tool rather than an end. Let's try using them to discuss Atlanta Braves Dansby Swanson and Kurt Suzuki below.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) 67% Owned

Swanson is off to a sizzling start (.342/.375/.553 with two homers) after accomplishing virtually nothing last year (.232/.312/.324 with six homers, three steals, and three CS). His ownership rate suggests that fantasy owners are willing to trust his performance to date. His peripheral stats suggest that you probably shouldn't.

Swanson is currently BABIPing his way to success with a .429 mark against last year's .292. His BABIP was elevated during his 145 PA MLB debut in 2016 (.383), but last year is by far the largest sample we have. His largest minor league sample also concurs, as he slashed a pedestrian .261/.342/.402 with eight homers, six steals, and a .309 BABIP over 377 PAs at Double-A in 2016. Double-A Mississippi is a pitcher-friendly environment (0.877 ballpark factor for scoring from 2014-2016), but his line was still uninspiring.

That said, batting average is probably Swanson's best chance at fantasy relevance. He looks like a high LD% guy (23% career) who rarely hits fly balls (31.6% FB% this year, 29.9% career) and pop-ups (5.7% IFFB% career), allowing him to project for a relatively high BABIP. He also brings raw speed to the table (29.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint speed this year, 28.7 ft./sec last year), theoretically allowing him to get more infield hits than most. His BABIP won't remain over .400, but .330 is possible.

He wasn't close to that last year, and Statcast didn't think he deserved to be. He hit very few Barrels (3% rate of Brls/BBE) with middling exit velocity on grounders (83.8 mph) and airborne balls (91.5 mph). His xBA last year was .233, a whopping one point better than his actual production. He also overperformed his xSLG (.332) by 10 points, so he was bad because he deserved to be.

His contract metrics are off the charts in 2018 (95.1 mph average airborne exit velocity, 88.1 mph on the ground), but nothing in his track record suggests that he can sustain Aaron Judge's contact quality. Even if he did, his xBA of .291 suggests that he's still performing over his head.

Swanson posted solid plate discipline numbers last year, but they're trending in the wrong direction. His K% is virtually unchanged (22.5% vs. 21.8% last year), but his BB% has plummeted (10.7% to 5%). The reason why is his eye. His chase rate has increased from a better than league average 27.2% last year to a worse than league average mark of 34.1% this season. Worse, his Z-Swing% was actually higher last year (66.6% vs. 64.3%). The season is still young, and it's possible he's trying to be more aggressive while he's hot. Still, this is not what you look for in a breakout candidate.

Swanson's FB% is too low to project much power, especially when his career HR/FB of 7% is considered. He has the raw speed to steal, but has never done so in a significant way (16 with three CS across three levels in 2016 is his personal high). Last year's four-for-seven in SB attempts may have earned him a permanent red light as well.

Finally, the Braves have Swanson buried in the sixth or seventh slot in their batting order despite his fast start. If they don't believe in him, why should you?

Verdict: Chump

 

Kurt Suzuki (C, ATL) 19% Owned

Like Swanson, Suzuki is off to a sizzling start (.311/.400/.578 with three homers) this season. Unlike Swanson, his breakout occurred last year (.283/.351/.536 with 19 HR in 309 PAs) and appears sustainable based on his peripherals.

Suzuki joined the air ball revolution in 2017, increasing his FB% from 38.5% in 2016 to 46.6% last season. He's kept it up so far in 2018, increasing his FB% to 48.9%. He's also pulling more of his fly balls (36% last year vs. a career mark of 25.8%), another trend that's continued into 2018 (50%). It's virtually impossible to pull half of your fly balls over a full season, but the point is that Suzuki is still doing what he did last year.

The fly ball approach has also improved his airborne contact quality. After averaging 90.2 mph on air balls in both 2015 and 2016 with pitiful Brls/BBE rates (2.6% and 1%, respectively), Suzuki shot up to 91.9 mph and 7.1% a year ago. His exit velocity this year is similar (91.6 mph), and while his rate of Brls/BBE has regressed a bit (4.4%) it's still double what it used to be.

SunTrust Park has a reputation for inflating power numbers, but FanGraphs ballpark factors didn't think it did for right-handed batters like Suzuki last year (95 HR factor). Nevertheless, Suzuki's newfound appreciation for pulled, airborne baseballs likely makes his current 13.6% HR/FB sustainable moving forward. His career mark is much lower (6.7%), while last year;s mark was higher (17.1%). His performance to date seems like a reasonable compromise between the two.

A 25 HR pace is more than enough for a catcher to be fantasy-relevant, but Suzuki's batting average should be plus too. If Suzuki's new profile had an exploitable weakness last year, it was a more aggressive approach that produced a high chase rate (39.3%) where it didn't previously exist (26.5% career). This year, he's managed to cut his chase rate to 31.7% while simultaneously becoming more aggressive in the zone (76.2% Z-Swing% vs. 71.1% last year). It's still early, but plate discipline is one of the fastest stats to become meaningful.

The result has been a BB% that has nearly doubled (5.5% to 10.9%) while his already strong K% (12.6%) declined to a minuscule 3.9%. Suzuki will probably K slightly more often moving forward, but he's always been a great contact hitter and his plate discipline is objectively better than it used to be.

Elite plate discipline is important because Suzuki's BABIP is terrible. His career BABIP is just .273, and last year's .268 failed to reach even that. The reason why is a pop-up problem (15.3% IFFB% last year, 13.6% this) that has only grown more significant with his fly ball approach. His fly ball BABIP fell to .065 last year, and more of the same is likely in 2018.

Suzuki also runs like the aging catcher he is, so last year's .217 BABIP on ground balls last year is probably a more realistic expectation than his .239 career mark. Incidentally, Statcast is buying into his current average with an xBA of .317, but he's unlikely to sustain that. A repeat of last year's .280 is far more realistic and perfectly playable in a catcher slot.

The Braves hit Suzuki fifth or cleanup most games, giving him ample opportunity to add RBIs to his power and batting average combo. Above average fantasy production in three categories is much better than most catchers provide, so why is Suzuki available in so many leagues?

Verdict: Champ

 

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel5 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray5 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele5 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons7 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler8 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson8 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele8 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle8 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans8 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic8 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney8 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga8 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith9 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen9 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara9 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele9 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes9 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson9 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic9 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar9 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton9 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert9 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones9 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji9 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee9 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards9 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani10 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson10 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo10 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley10 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque10 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez10 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler11 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel11 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley11 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal12 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes12 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis12 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer14 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw14 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler14 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager14 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz14 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds16 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano18 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad19 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov19 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto19 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin19 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard19 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins19 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist19 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear19 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More