RADIO
Pitching is the name of the game in both real life and fantasy baseball. Rostering the wrong arms can put any team into a hole it's difficult to dig out from under, but overpaying for the right ones can leave your team exposed on the offensive side. What's a fantasy owner to do?
The best plan is to roster underappreciated arms in the later rounds while avoiding early round busts, but this can be challenging to pull off. Brad Hand is likely to fit the bill as an unheralded late-round addition, as he has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy reliever without the associated cost. Gerrit Cole may be somebody to avoid on draft day, as the name is worth more than the production at this point.
Here's a closer look at this duo of arms.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Brad Hand (RP, SD)
Hand followed up a strong 2016 with a fantastic 2017 campaign in which he posted a 2.16 ERA (2.90 xFIP) with 21 saves and a 33.4% K% over 79 1/3 IP. His innings total is likely to go down with a full season in the closer's role, but the accompanying spike in saves will be more than worth it in fantasy.
Some people are sleeping on Hand because they assume that the Padres aren't good enough to provide him with many save opportunities before the Trade Deadline, at which point he'll be flipped to a contender. Both assumptions are wrong. San Diego has to win 70 games or so, and they aren't good enough to win them by lopsided scores. Hand will see just as many opportunities as anybody on a contender.
Hand is also an excellent pitcher who could well keep earning saves if he is flipped at the deadline. His 4-seam fastball is elite, holding opposing hitters to a .183/.275/.352 triple slash line against despite a sky high Zone% of 58.7%. It also induces whiffs like a secondary pitch, boasting a 12.4% SwStr%. The secret to the pitch's success is an elite spin rate of 2,526 rotations per minute (RPM), 12th best in all of baseball minimum 100 fastballs thrown. For some context, 723 pitchers threw a 4-seamer last year.
Hand also discovered a slider in 2016, throwing it 30.5% of the time versus just 8.8% in 2015. He relied on it even more last season, upping its usage to 45%. This column often argues that pitchers should mix in their secondary stuff more often, and Hand is doing exactly that. The increased usage did not adversely affect the offering, which compiled a .105/.190/.188 line against, 19.3% SwStr%, and 35.8% chase rate last season.
Hand threw fewer sinkers (33.2% to 24%) and abandoned his curve (7.3% to 3.65) to make room for all of the sliders, and neither will be missed. His sinker did little to get Hand ahead in the count (50% Zone%), put batters away (5.6% SwStr%), or limit production (.360/.380/.533) last season. Hand's curve has never been much of a weapon, offering just a 8.2% SwStr% over Hand's career.
Hand also benefits from Petco Park as long as he remains a Padre. It limits singles for all batters (98 Park factor) while suppressing home runs (93 for RHB, 88 for LHB). Last year's 15% HR/FB was the worst mark of Hand's career, giving him room for positive regression on last year's stellar campaign. Take advantage of the weak surrounding cast to lock up one of the game's best RP at a discount.
Verdict: Champ
Gerrit Cole (SP, HOU)
Cole was a workhorse in 2017, tossing 203 IP in an era where that's increasingly hard to find. However, his ERA (4.26), xFIP (3.81), and K% (23.1%) all fell short of what most would consider an ace. Many see the move to Houston as an unmitigated good for his fantasy value, but it seems likely to play out quite differently.
Let's begin with an examination of Cole's raw stuff. His fastball lights up the radar gun (96 mph last year), but its 2,165 RPM spin rate placed him in the middle of the pack among MLB hurlers (469th out of 723). That's actually the worst possible position to be in, as high spin fastballs generate Ks and weak contact while low spin ones excel at keeping the ball on the ground. Cole's heater will never be as good as the radar gun says it should be.
Cole may have realized this last year, as he mixed in more changeups (5.4% to 10.5%) and curves (9.9% to 12.3%) at the expense of his disappointing fastball (50.1% to 41.9%). Sadly, he picked the wrong secondary pitches to focus on. His change doesn't generate enough whiffs (11.1%) to justify its 38.9% Zone%, while the curve ball isn't that good at anything (9% SwStr%, 41.4% Zone%, 32.3% chase rate). Cole also throws a sinker, but both its 3.9% SwStr% and 54.8% Zone% fell short of the 4-seamer's marks of 8.3% and 55.1% last year.
The most intriguing pitch in Cole's repertoire is a slider with a 17% SwStr% and 42.6% Zone%, but batters chased it less often last year than they have in the past (36.4% vs. 40% career). If batters refuse to swing at the pitch when it's out of the zone, it will quickly lose its effectiveness as a put away offering.
Another indicator that Cole's stuff might not be what it once was is the quality of contact he allowed last season. He posted the highest FB% of his career in 2017 (33.7%), a problem when you also have a career worst 15.9% HR/FB (10% career). The increased HR/FB was not a fluke, as his average airborne exit velocity allowed (91.3 mph vs. 89.7 in 2016) and rate of Brls/BBE (7.6% vs. 3%) both moved substantially in the wrong direction.
This newfound propensity for allowing harder contact will play poorly at Minute Maid Park. While Pittsburgh suppressed HR power for both RHB (90 HR factor) and LHB (96) last season, Houston provided a slight boost to each (102 for RHB, 103 for LHB). Cole will also need to face a DH as opposed to a pitcher, replacing an easy out with a legitimate big league hitter.
Cole is a ground ball specialist when he's on his game (47.4% career GB%), so you could make the argument that his homers allowed will calm down despite the park switch. If this proves to be the case, Cole seems likely to see last year's .298 BABIP creep up toward his career mark of .311. First of all, his 20.6% LD% last season was significantly below his career mark of 22.2%. More liners allowed will mean a higher BABIP against.
Cole's new infield defense may also disappoint him. Pittsburgh's infield defense was very strong last year, with 3B David Freese (eight DRS), 2B Josh Harrison (six), and 1B Josh Bell (also six) ranking well above average. Shortstop Jordy Mercer didn't fare quite as well (-1), but his reputation as a defensive wizard and the fact that he wasn't bad means that the unit overall was quite solid. Cole took advantage, posting a BABIP on ground balls (.215) that was slightly lower than his career mark (.221).
The Astros have a strong middle infield tandem in 2B Jose Altuve (three DRS last year) and SS Carlos Correa (four), but they are negated by questionable glovework from 1B Yulieski Gurriel (-5) and 3B Alex Bregman (-3). The resulting unit is only league average, unlikely to provide Cole with any substantial help in 2018.
To be fair, Cole himself is an above average defender (two DRS last year) and his new park is harsher on singles (98 for both RHB and LHB) than his old one (103 for RHB, 104 for LHB). Cole also managed to decrease the average exit velocity on his grounders allowed from 84.6 mph in 2016 to 81.3 mph last year. His 2015 number (84.5 mph) supports the 2016 results more than last year's, so it remains to be seen if last year's improvements end up being sustainable.
Houston played much better outfield defense than Pittsburgh did last year, compiling 11 Outs Above Average vs. -7 for the Pirates. Cole seems unlikely to make use of this though, as virtually anything he allows in the air is likely to be trouble.
Houston is also a forward-thinking organization with a dynamic bullpen, giving them little incentive to stick with their #3 starter beyond the fifth or sixth inning. This will likely prevent Cole from reaching 200 IP again, a fact that stings more if you need him to stay in the game to earn a win or QS.
That leaves us with an arm with underperforming stuff, a downgrade in the defense he cares about most, a more hostile ballpark, and a lower projected innings total. Cole is good enough to use in fantasy, but unlikely to be worth the ace price tag he's likely to command in 2018.
Verdict: Chump
