X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Amed Rosario and Nomar Mazara

What Appears In This Article? hide

We are in the final stretch now, and the sad truth is that the fates of most fantasy teams have already been sealed. The players below are available in at least 30 percent of leagues, but our focus will begin to shift toward 2019 draft prep. With so much data available on so many players, you need all the time you can get if you want to have an information advantage.

Amed Rosario has elite speed, but hasn't shown any ability to translate it into stats fantasy owners care about. Nomar Mazara is one of the most polarizing players on the board, as his surface stats suggest an average performer while his backers always say that a breakout is around the corner.

Will either help fantasy rosters in 2018 and beyond?

Featured Promo: Get ANY MLB Premium Pass for 10% off the regular price with code BALLER. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Amed Rosario (SS, NYM) - 32% Owned

Rosario has slashed .255/.296/.382 with seven homers and 18 steals (against 10 CS) in 2018, numbers that don't do much to excite owners. He might have a little bit of batting average upside, but he seems destined to disappoint in the SB column for the duration of his career.

Rosario hit for a strong batting average on the farm, slashing .341/.392/.481 in his first significant exposure to Double-A in 2016. Unfortunately, he managed only two homers and six steals (two CS) over 237 PAs that year. His batting average was rooted in a .433 BABIP resulting from a 26.1% LD%, marks that are almost certainly unsustainable over a larger sample size. He might be a plus BABIP guy thanks to his legs (29.5 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed this year) and low FB% (29.7% for Double-A Binghamton), but not .433.

The performance earned Rosario a shot with Triple-A Las Vegas in 2017, where he slashed .328/.367/.466 with seven homers and 19 steals (six CS) over 425 PAs. His LD% regressed to 21.2% (his second highest professional mark), but he still managed a .377 BABIP thanks to how easy it is to hit in Vegas (1.089 ballpark factor for hits from 2014-2016). His 27.1% FB% also supported an elevated BABIP at the expense of power upside (8% HR/FB).

The Mets gave Rosario 170 PAs in Flushing toward the end of last season, but his plate discipline was atrocious (1.8% BB%, 28.8% K%). He wasn't that bad at Double-A (8% BB%, 21.5% K%) or Triple-A (5.4% BB%, 15.8% K%), so it was probably more of an overmatched by big league pitchers thing than a chronic flaw in Rosario's game.

Rosario's 2018 looks like a success in this light, as his plate discipline stats have improved substantially (5.1% BB%, 20.2% K%). Sadly, his peripherals suggest that his plate discipline is awful. While his 39.8% chase rate is better than last season's 45.5%, it's still really bad and way too high to support his current BB%. Likewise, his 12.4% SwStr% is too high for a slap hitter even if it is a substantial improvement over his 18.1% mark in 2017. Rosario's plate discipline improvements are not something you want to bet on.

You might think that Rosario's elite wheels make his .311 BABIP sustainable, but his .243 BABIP on ground balls is only league average production. Instead, his elevated BABIP is rooted in a .127 BABIP on fly balls and a .712 mark on liners that neither his average airborne exit velocity (90.3mph) nor his rate of Brls/BBE (3.8%, roughly half of the league average) support. It's possible that he figures out how to turn his speed into base hits at some point, but nothing appears imminent.

That's problematic, as Rosario offers little else from a fantasy perspective. Somebody with his wheels should have gaudy SB numbers on the farm, but Rosario has never swiped more than 26 in a single season. His success rate of approximately 64% this year would probably earn him a red light on a contending club as well. He'll contribute something in the category, but he's no game changer.

Rosario also has no power potential at all. In addition to the mediocre contact quality metrics cited above, Rosario rarely lifts the ball (30.4% FB%) and often pops it up when he does (11% IFFB%). Citi Field is far from a home run hitter's haven, so he's not getting any help from his environment either.

Some scouting reports suggest that Rosario is a strong defender, but his defensive metrics strongly disagree (-14 Defensive Runs Saved this year). That could force him out of the lineup if the Mets get good, while making a position change more likely in the future.

Rosario has served as the Mets leadoff man in each of his games since August 5, giving him some runs potential if you need an emergency SS down the stretch. However, that's about as good as it's going to get for this version of Rosario. He's only 22, but there are too many holes in his game to count on him in 2019.

Verdict: Chump

 
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX) - 72% Owned

It turns out that his age 23 season was not the big Mazara breakout that some projected, as he slashed .267/.328/.465 with 20 HR over 460 PAs. Most of his numbers are splitting images of his career production, so there's little growth to cling to if you want next year to be the one.

For example, Mazara has a .302 BABIP against a career mark of .297. He's somehow hitting more grounders (54.5% GB%) than he usually does (49.6% career), leaving him with relatively few batted balls for flies (26.2% FB%, 30.4% career) or liners (19.4% vs. 20.1% career). He's hitting his ground balls a little bit harder than usual (89.6mph vs. 85.6mph in 2017 and 86.3mph in 2016), helping to increase his BABIP on the ground to .266 (.242 career). He's also been aided by the willingness of other teams to deploy a shift against him (229 of 305 opportunities) despite it not working (.308 average, 52% Pull% on ground balls).

Mazara's 23.5% HR/FB is significantly higher than his 16.9% career rate, but none of his underlying metrics support the increase. His 94.6mph average airborne exit velocity is virtually unchanged from his performance in 2017 (94.9mph). His rate of Brls/BBE has increased from 6.5% last year to 8.9% this, but his decline in FB% probably negates any benefits from the spike. Mazara makes good use of his power-friendly home park (15 of 20 HR have come at home), but he just hits too many grounders for a sustained power breakout.

Mazara has hit third or fourth in each game since April 11, making him a nice addition for R+RBI if you need them. His plate discipline is also solid (7.8% BB%, 20.4% K% career). While you can always dream on a 23-year old's upside, Mazara would need to fundamentally alter his approach to reach the potential some see in him. Invest cautiously in 2019.

Verdict: Chump

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Onyeka Okongwu40 mins ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray49 mins ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano2 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole2 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz2 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon2 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco2 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad3 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov3 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto3 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin3 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard3 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins3 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist3 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear3 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop4 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels4 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado4 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer4 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman4 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent4 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford15 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White15 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl17 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon17 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter17 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic17 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio17 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday17 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton17 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid17 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray18 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert18 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James18 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez18 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis18 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Garrett Mitchell18 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green19 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson19 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman19 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres20 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard20 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson20 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer21 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia21 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen21 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers21 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers21 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers22 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar22 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark23 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers23 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB23 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels23 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB23 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby23 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith24 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds24 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti1 day ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga1 day ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain1 day ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More