RADIO
By now you've probably heard that Mike Trout will miss approximately 6-8 weeks after tearing a ligament in his thumb. This injury is worse than it seems if your fantasy roster relied on Trout, as most batters struggle to regain their power stroke after sustaining a hand injury. If you're in the tough position of trying to replace the best batter in the game, the key is to identify what aspect of Trout is most important to your roster.
If you took Trout primarily to acquire a strong average or OBP base for your club, a similar base is available on waivers in the form of Pittsburgh's Adam Frazier. If Trout was instead your primary power source, a slugger such as San Diego's Hunter Renfroe may be able to pick up the slack. Neither guy is as good as Trout--nobody is. They can replicate part of his game though, producing enough to help you remain competitive in the absence of your superstar.
Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Adam Frazier (OF/2B, PIT) 30% Owned
Frazier is making the most of his playing time, slashing .330/.409/.464 with three homers and a pair of steals (four CS) in the Show. The lackluster success rate on stolen bases was foreshadowed by a dreadful showing between the majors and Triple-A last year, during which Frazier went 21-for-37 on SB attempts. He might have SB upside going forward, but it shouldn't be counted on until Frazier becomes dramatically more efficient.
Frazier's batting average and OBP are the main reasons to roster him in fantasy. His current BABIP of .358 may seem high, but Frazier posted a .369 mark in 299 PAs at Triple-A last year and a .360 mark in 423 PAs at Double-A in 2015. Both minor league marks were the result of elevated LD% rates, as Frazier posted a 26.9% LD% at Triple-A and 25.3% at Double-A. Frazier's 23.5% LD% at the MLB level may seem unsustainable, but his minor league history suggests that he might be able to keep it up.
Frazier also has the batted ball profile of a plus-BABIP guy. He rarely hits the ball into the air (27.6% FB%) and barely ever pops it up (3.7% IFFB%). He also has plus legs that make his .271 BABIP on ground balls look realistic. His .826 BABIP on line drives is probably due for a little regression, but balls in play figure to be Frazier's friend all season long.
He sees that friend frequently, as he almost never strikes out. His K% of 11% is supported by both his minor league history and a minuscule SwStr% of 5.9%. Frazier also possesses an excellent eye (23.1% chase rate), suggesting that he has an advanced knowledge of the zone likely to produce batting average success. His current 10.2% walk-rate would be a professional best, but it was never a minor league weakness. Frazier has the skills to be a future batting champion.
If you want to add power to your roster, look elsewhere. Frazier's three homers are already a single season professional best, and all of his power indicators are poor. For example, his 4.1% rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event is around half of the league average mark. He rarely hits flies, and barely ever pulls them (7.4% Pull% on fly balls). Airborne baseballs off Frazier's bat only average 86.5 mph as well. There is just no power here at all.
That is absolutely fine if you hit .320+. The rookie has also played himself into the top of Pittsburgh's batting order, adding runs scored to a profile that includes an elite average and a few steals. He even has five games at second base this season, giving him 2B and MI eligibility in many leagues. If you relied on Trout to offset the low average of many sluggers, Frazier is the perfect replacement for your roster.
Verdict: Champ
Hunter Renfroe (OF, SB) 30% Owned
Renfroe is hitting .238/.297/.456 with 10 HR and a couple of steals this year. Renfroe's 10 bombs are a far cry from Trout's 16, but it prorates to roughly the 29 Trout smashed in 2016. That's all you were really counting on, right?
More importantly, Renfroe's power looks real. He gives himself plenty of opportunities to go yard by hitting the ball into the air at an impressive 44.9% clip. His HR/FB of 16.1% does not seem outrageous, especially if you consider his Triple-A performance last year (16.5% HR/FB) and above average Pull% on fly balls (16.1%). His average airborne exit velocity of 94.4 mph is more of a mixed bag. On one hand, that ties him with noteworthy sluggers Eric Thames and Jake Lamb. On the other, it also ties him with less noteworthy sluggers Francisco Cervelli and Max Kepler. Overall, Renfroe should be able to maintain his current 30 HR pace.
Renfroe's average is unlikely to help fantasy owners as much as his power. His .281 BABIP is a little on the low side, but it probably won't improve significantly. He does not hit many line drives (18.8%), a fact only reinforced by Renfroe's minor league career. His average exit velocity on ground balls is also only 80.4 mph, making it difficult to forecast positive regression for his .180 BABIP on the ground. Furthermore, he's pulling 76% of his ground balls, a rate that should make him shift bait even if it hasn't yet (.353 average vs. shift).
Like many sluggers, Renfroe also strikes out too much. His 26.3% K-rate is supported by a 13.6% SwStr% and 79.3% Z-Contact%, a combination suggesting that Renfroe can't always make contact on hittable pitches. His eye is average (34.2% chase), giving him a little room for BB% improvement (currently 7.7%) if pitchers learn to fear his power stroke. This will be little solace in batting average formats, though.
Renfroe has broken double digits in steals (11 in 2014) and hasn't been caught yet this year, so he should be good for a handful of bags to go with his power. The Padres also bat him fourth or fifth most nights, giving him ample opportunity to contribute in RBI as well. If you need power from your Trout replacement, Renfroe fits the bill.
Verdict: Champ
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