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Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 12


Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.

Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need.

Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.

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Undervalued Players - Week 12

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

 

Nick Castellanos- OF, DET

80% owned

Castellanos recently came out and stated that he wants an extension. The Tigers have a tough choice to make in the next month or so, and it could result in Castellanos getting traded to a contender. Despite posting several above-average offensive seasons in Detroit, he does not fit their timeline for possible contention (not anytime soon). If Castellanos were to get traded, it is very likely that he would end up in a better hitter's park than Comerica with a significantly better lineup around him. His hitting, along with the counting stats that come along, could benefit greatly from this potential move.

Despite this being a matter of speculation, it would be wise to pick up Castellanos for free off of the waiver wire (even in some shallow leagues) if he is available. He has proven in the past to be a reliable, productive hitter, and could revert to one if dealt somewhere like Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Texas. Just eat the meager production provided in the meantime, then drop him after the deadline if he is still a Tiger. The move could truly come at any time over the next month-and-a-half given the hole Detroit is in.

 

Scott Kingery - 2B/OF, PHI

47% owned

Kingery Dingery Dong, where have I heard this song? A rookie comes up and is thrust into a near-everyday role then struggles? It happens a lot, especially with mediocre teams like the Phillies last season. Kingery was a highly regarded prospect and is finally showing signs of life in his sophomore campaign. He has now compiled eight home runs through 37 games and is batting above .300. His BABIP is a tad bit high, however, he shouldn't regress too far given his hitting acumen. The strikeout-to-walk ratio is concerning (especially for those in points/OBP formats), but shouldn't affect standard 5x5 and roto leagues.

Kingery has been rumored to potentially take a spot atop the Philly lineup with Cesar Hernandez's recent struggles, and if so, would benefit greatly due to the talented hitters behind him. He's a must-own player in 12-plus team formats for the league types I mentioned.

 

Ian Kennedy - SP/RP, KC

32% owned

Kennedy seems to be the closer for the Royals, which should be good enough for anyone needing saves. Closers are rare finds on the wire, but definitely pop up a few times a month. Kennedy has finally found some consistency and shown the skillset to produce while in the ninth inning. His 8.5 K/BB rate is pretty elite and while he may not have TOO many save opportunities come his way due to Kansas City's struggles, he should capitalize when given the opportunity and even throw in a few strikeouts for good measure. His ERA/WHIP aren't ideal for now but should drop given his 3.29 xFIP and 2.80(!!) SIERA.

Kennedy is worth owning in most leagues and can even be placed as an SP to maximize your reliever count if your league only allows a few RP/P slots. Kennedy may become a real-life trade candidate next month, yet should be valuable in the meantime.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 12

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped.

 

Blake Parker- RP, MIN

56% owned

It seems that he's been usurped by Taylor Rogers as the primary closer in the Twins' bullpen. Parker was never much of a long-term option, and now, with limited opportunities coming his way, his time as ownership-worthy may be up. Parker's peripherals were average at best and while he did hold the role previously in Anaheim, he was never that good. Even Trevor May had a save opportunity come his way this past week. The Twins closing role is not set in stone whatsoever.

It's pretty safe to drop Parker if you've got him. Be thankful for the saves he provided thus far and move on.

 

Miles Mikolas - SP, STL

73% owned

One of the bigger pitching busts this year. There really aren't any saving graces with Mikolas's pitching this year. His peripherals aren't too far off from his performance and he doesn't provide much if his ratios are bad. Mikolas might not be as good as the best pitcher in shallower waiver wires which makes him a streamer for now. Hitters have figured him out a bit more and are teeing off of his minimally deceptive stuff (juiced ball helps too of course).

Mikolas can still be owned in most formats but expectations should be lowered a ton. If you have league-mates who believe that he can return to his 2018 form, selling would be ideal. However, this is likely not the case in more competitive leagues.

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