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Here at Rotoballer, we truly do believe in the "grand finale" concept--that's why you're getting MY bold predictions after all the other chuckleheads. By chuckleheads I mean my talented and respectable colleagues.
Be sure to check out just how wonky we all get this time of year with our entire Bold Prediction Series.
I didn't have a banner year with last year's predictions (sooooo much Byung-ho Park), but I'm feelin' real good heading into 2017. Onward, steadfast readers!
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Bill Dubiel's Bold Predictions for 2017
1. Max Kepler hits 30 bombs AND is a top-30 outfielder.
Double-dipping right out of the gate...*slides sunglasses onto face*...deal with it.
Kepler was a very pleasant surprise for the Twinkies and for fantasy owners in 2016 with his 17 homers and 63 RBI over 447 plate appearances. His batting average left a bit to be desired (.235), but I would point to his youth and terrible BABIP (.261) as indicators of future improvement. Ze German slugger has always adjusted well with every promotion he's received in his professional career, and I expect him to continue to figure things out in the majors in 2017. I think he's poised to provide his peak performance this year as a matter of fact, and I'm calling out a .270 average, 31 bombskis, 80 RBI and 10 steals. Put him in the Stephen Piscotty/Lorenzo Cain/Adam Eaton tier of outfielders.
2. Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP award.
I made this prediction last year and it ALMOST came to fruition. Cabrera was healthy for a full season after an injury-plagued 2015 campaign, and moseyed his way to a .316 batting average, 38 homers, 108 RBI, 92 runs scored...ya know, Miggy stuff. Cabrera will be in his age-34 season, and I'm certainly not declaring him "over the hill" yet. Assuming his health, Cabrera will be right up there duking it out with Mike Trout and Jose Altuve. And Josh Donaldson. And Mookie Betts. And Manny Machado.
Wait, why didn't this prediction hit last year?
3. Stephen Strasburg pitches 200 innings AND is a top-five SP.
Switching to pitching (heh) I'm going all-in on Stras this year. Is he made of glass? Probably. But if the scotch tape and rubber bands hold together for a full season, this dude has the stuff to be an easy top-five starting pitcher. 'Memba in 2014 when he actually threw 215 innings? I 'memba! All he did was strike out 242 batters and post a 3.14 ERA (and 2.94 FIP). The dude is one of the hands-down nastiest in the game, and I'm betting on him shutting people down for a full season. Go get 'em Stras!
4. Masahiro Tanaka finishes as a top-10 SP.
Tanaka is undoubtedly talented, so what makes this bold is who he'll have to beat out in order to get into the top 10. The Japanese import has been incredibly effective since debuting with the Yankees in 2014, posting an overall 3.12 ERA and averaging just 1.5 BB/9, which to me is a wildly underrated statistic. The Yankees are going to surprise some people, and Tanaka is going to lead the charge on his way to a top-10 season. Put it in the books.
5. Greg Bird finishes as a top-10 1B.
Yeah, I'm a Yankees fan, why do you ask? For real though, now that the perennial burden of Mark Teixeira is no longer an issue for the Yankee lineup, Greg Bird is going take off. This isn't (entirely) a result of his mash-tastic spring training either--I've been high on Bird for a while now, and I think we had already seen the beginnings of his breakout in 2015 before he missed all of the 2016 season. The slugger should mash in Yankee Stadium from the left side, and he could be the new thunder that this team needs. A Bronx bomber, if you will.
6. Wade Davis finishes as a top-five closer.
I kind of don't understand why Wade Davis is ranked so low in so many spots. Do people think the Cubs won't be in close games? Because they're going to win at least 100, and I don't see how Davis doesn't end up closing at least 45 of those. Just to throw it out there, the dude has posted a 1.00, 0.94 and 1.87 ERA in the last three seasons. Yes that was in KC and not all of it as closer, but still, let's give credit where credit is due. The main thing holding him back is his low K/9, but I think the save volume and, ya know, not allowing many runs is going to carry him into the top-five.
7. J.T. Realmuto finishes as a top-five catcher.
Like the Tanaka pick, this one is more about who he'll have to beat out to get into the top five. However, I'm rallying behind the young Marlin catcher in 2017 because of his combined skill set. Realmuto is behind some of his fellow catchers in the power department, but what he lacks there he makes up for with a speed bonus and better contact. He actually hit .303 last year, and while some regression is to be expected there (.357 BABIP proves he was a bit lucky) I still think he's a lock for .280 and at least a .300 OBP. He'll steal at least 10 bags for you, and he has 15 homers in him as well. Add that all up and pray that he continues to improve on his plate discipline and you've got a top-five catcher. Probably.
8. D.J. LeMahieu wins the NL batting title--AGAIN.
*Call me irresponsible,
D.J.'s so reliable,
Throw in, so dependable too...
Does that .388 BABIP scare you?
Well I'm not too clever,
I just adore LeMahieu.
BABIP's unpredictable,
Another batting title is impractical,
Rainbows, I'm inclined to pursue...
Call me irresponsible,
My predictions aren't reliable
But it's, undeniably true...
I'm irresponsibly mad for LeMahieu.
*original song by Jimmy Van Heusen with lyrics by Sammy Cahn...adapted by Bill Dubiel.
9. Chris Sale finishes outside the top-10 SP.
It's been all sunshine up to this point hasn't it? Let's get some negativity up in here! Chris Sale is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there is very little statistical evidence to indicate significant regression. HOWEVER...we ain't in the South Side anymore Chris. This is Beantown, and the MONSTAH IS WICKED HAHD TO DEAL WIT'. In all honesty, it's not like Sale is jumping from the NL to the AL or anything, but we've seen him be a bit...let's go with "temperamental" in the past, and Boston doesn't seem like a terrific fit.
Jeez, the questions again. YES I'm a Yankees fan, why do you need to know?
10. The NL MVP is NOT Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, or Paul Goldschmidt. It's Charlie Blackmon.
This is number 10, so let's end it with a bang. @Chuck_Nazty showed everyone what his ceiling could be in 2016, and boy is it a ceiling. He hit .324 with 29 bombs, 82 RBI and a whopping 111 runs scored. He also managed to swipe 17 bags, but if anything that should be considered a down year. That specific number should go up as the Rockies are planning to steal a bit more. Blackmon's batting average is certainly sustainable when his home field is Coors, and while his power numbers were well above his previous career highs he'll be perched atop a veritable murderer's row of a lineup. I say he KEEPS the power up, STEALS more bags, AND hits for a batting average above .320. Now if only the other three guys would all have an off year...
