Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have a full slate of baseball, with games all throughout the day. So kick back, relax, and enjoy one of the last Sundays without football, and let's hit some home run bets to build that account back up! We have a solid set of games that ends with a good rivalry between the Yankees and the Red Sox. The weather is looking good around the nation, with only some mild concern for rain and some favorable wind!
When finding the best home run props to target, several key factors are worth considering, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, BvP history, weather conditions, and park factors. It's also important to consider the pricing of the betting odds. In this article, we're looking for some home run bets that provide as much value as possible. Since I typically play these picks in a round robin format with a small unit size, I try to avoid obvious plays with short odds. Selecting a couple of value home runs gives your betting card an extremely high ceiling.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, August 24, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook as well as FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/24/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, August 24:
- Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox
- Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
- Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
- Zach McKinstry, Detroit Tigers
- Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel)
Montgomery has made quite the splash in his rookie season. He has stood out as a pivotal young piece going forward for this lowly White Sox team. In his first season, he has smacked 12 home runs, with nine of them being against righties, including one just last night. He has an elite .545 SLG and a .303 ISO against RHP. Colson is also putting out a 13.3% Barrel% and a 41.4% HardHit%.
The wind is blowing out like crazy in Chicago right now. We are looking at 15 mph winds going out to center field. This should benefit both sides of the game, but I like the data we have on likely starter Joe Ryan vs. Yoendrys Gomez.
The rookie delivers in GRAND fashion 🔥
Colson Montgomery hits a loud grand slam in Chicago!
(MLB x @DairyQueen) pic.twitter.com/Tt0BMNmx3q
— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2025
Ryan has been an elite pitcher this season, and that's probably not something you want to hear when going against him, but he does have some underlying metrics to keep an eye on. He has a 1.29 HR/9 to LHH this season and still has a pretty high Barrel% at 11%! That is the fourth highest on the slate. It might only take a long fly ball to get out of the park this time around.
Jo Adell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+260 FanDuel)
Jameson Taillon is an elite pitcher to target for home runs. He has nearly a 2 HR/9 this season all around. Those numbers jump to 2.33 against RHH! He has given up 12 of his 22 home runs to RHH this season, where he also is sporting a SLG of .526 and a wOBA of .349.
Adell has been hitting the ball crazy hard recently. He has an average exit velocity of 100.7 mph across his last five games, which is nearly 11 mph faster than his average this season. Adell has been great against RHP this season, with 22 of his 28 home runs coming off the righties. He has a solid SLG of .454 and ISO of .227.
The wind is blowing out at about 10 mph right now, which, combined with Adell's 50% HardHit% and a Barrel% of 16.9% makes for an elite home run cocktail against Taillon, who has been extremely home run prone this season.
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I don't love the odds here, as anything sub 200 for a home run is ridiculous, but Jake Irvin is the perfect home run target spot for the Phillies. He has been hammered by hitters this season, giving up 29 home runs, with 18 of them coming from the lefty side of the plate. Irvin has a 2.07 HR/9 against lefties this season. He is also putting up the third-highest Barrel% on the slate at 11.6% and a HardHit% of 47.4%.
The wind is blowing around 10 mph out to left center, which isn't great for us with the lefty Harper being on the mound, but Harper does sport a solid 27% Oppo%, which is second best of all lefties on the team. Harper is also sporting a 47.6% HardHit% and a 12.4% Barrel%.
Harper has 12 home runs off of righties this season and is putting up a .491 SLG and a .368 wOBA. Harper is also hitting the ball really hard right now with an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph across the last five games, which is four mph faster than his normal. With a bad pitcher on the mound in Jake Irvin, this is a great spot for all hitters on this red-hot Phillies team.
Zach McKinstry OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 DraftKings)
After some odds like that with Harper, let me introduce you to my longshot of the day at a crisp +750. McKinstry doesn't grade out extremely well, hence the long odds, but he does have some pop to the bat and finds himself in a great matchup against Seth Lugo, who has been a home run derby for lefties this season.
Zach McKinstry now has 11 home runs this season.
In terms of fWAR, he is above Riley Greene and trailing only Dillon Dingler as the Tigers' most valuable position player pic.twitter.com/yAC0YmDe8X
— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) August 22, 2025
Lugo holds a 2.21 HR/9 to lefties alone, where he has given up 19 of his 25 home runs. He has the fifth-highest Barrel% at 10.8% on the slate to go with a HardHit% of 45.1%. Now McKinstry has a fairly low HardHit% at only 30% but recently he has been hitting the ball well with two triples and a home run in his last three games.
McKinstry has an SLG of .428 and an ISO of .180 against RHP this season. With his recent hits and the dinger off of Ryan Bergert, I'm hoping we can get something similar from McKinstry off of Lugo. It's looking like the wind is blowing out to center field around 10-12 mph. If he can get something to fly, the wind might carry us to victory!
Take a look at Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, who both grade out as well, just at lower odds!
Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
Last but certainly not least, we have Marte on deck for us today. Marte has been crushing the ball recently with two home runs in his previous seven games. All of Marte's home runs this season have come off the RHP, where he has done the most damage all season long. Lucky for us, we get Zac Gallen on the mound, who has also been bad against RHH.
Zac Gallen has been a home run machine as he has given up 26 home runs so far this season, with 15 of those coming against RHH. He has a 1.72 HR/9 and also a SLG of .433. It is supposed to be blazing hot in Arizona with temps in the 110-degree range! Gallen might be in for a rough night as the balls are going to be cutting through the air like butter.
Noelvi Marte since August 1st:
.344 BA
.951 OPS
7 doubles
3 HR
13% Barrel%
39% Hard-Hit%
108.1 MPH EV90 (!)
18% Whiff% (27% on season!)The 23-year old now has a .306 BA & .863 OPS over his 57 MLB games, with ten home runs & seven SB.
20/20 candidate for years to come. pic.twitter.com/phV9kcKMBT
— LouisAnalysis (@LouisAnalysis) August 20, 2025
Marte has some crazy splits against righties, where he has a SLG of .606 and an ISO of .290! His HardHit% is only around 37% at the moment, but that has slowly been on the rise recently. His Barrel% is nearly up to 9% as well. Marte is locked in right now, and it's the perfect spot to take advantage of somebody like Gallen with the weather being the way it is.
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