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As the saying goes, you can’t win your league during the draft. The waiver wire moves owners make during the season are the ones that will determine who wins. The art to winning at fantasy baseball is being able to determine who should be added to a roster and should be bypassed. In order to do that, an owner needs to be able to tell if someone is for real or not.
This column will focus on some pitchers who have recently thrown their hats into the ring for consideration. Below are some pitchers who performed well in Week 20, as we look towards the waiver wire for Week 24 and beyond.
These pitchers are available in many leagues, and we’ll dig a little deeper to determine whether you should be picking these guys up or leaving them be.
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Coastal Elites
Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox
2016 Stats: 180.1 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 115 K (5.74 K/9), 62 BB (3.09 BB/9)
September 6, 2017 vs Toronto Blue Jays: 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9 K (11.57 K/9), 3 BB (3.86 BB/9)
Doug Fister was a Cy Young candidate from 2012 through 2014. His lackluster stuff didn’t hold him back while he baffled AL Central and NL East opponents for the Tigers and Nationals, and he capped it off with a wonderful 2014 season with the Nats where he posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 164 innings at the age of 30. His sub-par strikeout rate of just 5.38/9 indicated the fun wouldn’t last, and sure enough, 2015 brought a jump of almost two runs per nine innings and a poor 1.40 WHIP. He bounced through H-town before shipping up to Boston for the 2017 season. Injuries combined with a horrific couple of months in June and July to indicate that the end of his career was probably looming in the not-so-distant future, but then the calendar flipped to August. August brought love and affection for Fister as he pulled his ERA under 4.00 while pushing his strikeout rate to heights never seen before, finishing the month with 25 strikeouts in 26 and ⅔ innings pitched. The trend has continued in September, and here he is with the opportunity to be a fantasy playoff hero!
On September 6, Fister and the rest of the BoSox welcomed the Bluebirds From The North to town. Fister was coming off three straight quality starts, and the once-vaunted Toronto offense was floundering in the bottom six for runs scored this season in the MLB. It was a match made in heaven, and Fister took full advantage. He logged his fourth quality start in a row by throwing seven innings of one-run ball and striking out nine. He walked three, but he only allowed four hits to limit the damage. He drew a ton of ground balls, was able to strand the vast majority of the runners that reached against him, and he picked up his fifth win of the season.
To be successful in the majors, a starter needs some type of solid offspeed offering. It may be a slider, sinker, curve, or change-up, but no one can live by a fastball alone. Along that same line, very rarely can a pitcher survive without a decent fastball. That’s where Gibson’s career issues lie. Traditionally, Gibson’s fastball is…disappointing. It has little life, and while it sits in the low 90s, that’s not enough to make it a dependable pitch. This is why he often relies on his sinker instead. He throws it in the low 90s as well, and it gets driven into the ground regularly, leading to a high ground ball rate. For the season, Gibson’s carrying an elite 52% ground ball rate, but as his season stats show, that’s not enough to make him good.
The critical change for Fister hasn’t just been one of his secondary pitches but a combination of two of them. His curveball and his cutter. Fister is a sinkerball pitcher, and like most sinkerball pitchers, he’s reliant on it. However, Fister’s actually started moving away from it since the start of August. Instead, his usage of his curveball and cutter have shot up. As the season has worn on, Fister has raised his combined usage of the two pitches from 28.6% in July to 44.1% in September. Likewise, his K-rate has jumped from 6.14/9 in July to 9.00/9 in September. It’s no surprise his ERA and WHIP have plummeted in that time.
Verdict
Doug Fister has shown before that he’s the real deal when it comes to pitching intelligently, and his current iteration is for real. However, it’s likely a temporary thing. Teams constantly crunch numbers and adjust to pitchers’ own adjustments, so his newfound reliance on his cutter/curve combo will get out and be adjusted to accordingly. The good news is that the long-term doesn’t matter for those in their leagues’ fantasy playoffs, only this week does. And this week, Fister gets the light-hitting A’s on Wednesday. For the season, Oakland’s below-average in runs scored, and they’re taking the opportunity to try out a bunch of future bats right now. That means Fister should have another ripe chance for a quality start. Obviously, he’s no guarantee, but for fantasy playoff rosters, he’s a pretty good bet.
Erasmo Ramirez, Seattle Mariners
2017 Stats: 114.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 92 K (7.24 K/9), 26 BB (2.05 BB/9)
September 9, 2017 vs. Los Angeles Angels: 6.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 7 K (9.45 K/9), 0 BB (0.00 BB/9)
Erasmo Ramirez saw his hype build to a crescendo in 2012 when he made his major league debut with the Mariners. After getting off to a quick minor-league start in rookie ball and Single-A, Ramirez had developed into a mediocre minor-league starter before he had a strong season in Triple-A at the age of 22. Having broke camp as a reliever for the big-league club, he spent the middle of the summer at Triple-A getting stretched out to take on a more regular starting role. He performed well during that time, and upon his return to the majors in September, he four straight quality starts. In 2013, he started in the minors once again, but after dealing with some injuries, he posted a strong 3.09 ERA at Triple-A and got the call-up. This time, things didn’t go smoothly at the major league level. Ramirez was shelled, and though he showed more promise at Triple-A in 2014, he was shipped to the Rays in exchange for Mike Montgomery. Now, after a couple more forgettable seasons bouncing between spot starts and relief for the Rays, Ramirez was sent back to the Mariners in exchange for Steve Cishek. The change of scenery has worked wonders for him.
On September 10, Ramirez hosted the Angels. Ramirez was building on five straight quality starts, but the Angels are still vying for the second wild card spot in the AL, so they’re no slouch of a lineup. He would go on to earn a no-decision, but it wasn’t his fault. Ramirez logged 6 and ⅔ innings while his only surrendered runs were due to a pair of solo shots. He struck out seven, walked none, and only allowed five hits along the way. His work was thanks to some good old-fashioned luck and some soft contact.
While Ramirez has recently excelled at preventing too much hard contact from his opponents, the thing that really sticks out about Ramirez’s recent streak is his strand rate. In his last three outings, Ramirez has stranded 100% of the runners that have reached base against him. He’s thrown three straight 6+ inning performances while allowing two runs per outing, and all of those runs have come from solo home runs. That’s a massive fluke. To give up six home runs in three outings and have all of them be solo shots is nearly unheard of, and it throws lots of numbers out of whack. There will be corrections coming, but they’ll be coming in both directions. To begin with, he’s not going to keep allowing 26% of his surrendered fly balls to turn into home runs, so that would mean that he will actually get better in that area. Some of those fly balls will start to stay in the yard. Unfortunately, that’s more than offset by the fact that some of those home runs will start to occur with runners on, and most importantly, some of those runners will start to score regardless of whether it’s by home run or some other means. As a fantasy owner, it will simply be a matter of whether the correction for one will be enough to offset or delay the correction for another.
Verdict
Unfortunately, Erasmo Ramirez is not for real just yet. While he’s garnered some hype over the years and goes on little hot streaks, he hasn’t consistently posted the strikeout rate necessary to give him extended success. That said, fantasy owners at the end of a season will be looking for a hot streak over sustained success, and Ramirez is buried in the middle of one of those streaks. His success is not sustainable, but if an owner needs a starter for this week only, then it’s hard to argue with the streak. Understand that the streak is ripe to fall apart at any given time, but until it does, it’s the kind of risk that can determine the champions from the also-rans. Ramirez will catch an outing against the Astros late in the week, so he’s still only recommended if an owner is in desperation mode.
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