X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps: J.T. Realmuto & Gary Sanchez

Position scarcity has been a fantasy consideration since the game was invented. If you could get first baseman numbers from a shortstop, that shortstop was worth way more due to the relative lack of production at the position. With the rise of offensive middle infielders and the corresponding decline in great corner options, scarcity is not affecting 2017 drafts as much as it has in the past.

The one exception to this general trend is catchers. Catchers are almost uniformly terrible while recording fewer PAs due to the rigors of their position. Scarcity dictates that the few catchers who do not embarrass themselves at the plate be taken far earlier than their production alone warrants. Is this really the best course to take? Let's look at Miami's J.T. Realmuto and New York's Gary Sanchez to find out.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA) ADP: 130.3

Realmuto was unquestionably one of 2016's top catchers, as his .303/.343/.428 line with 11 HR and 12 SB will attest. The speed is unexpected from the C slot, and his success rate (four CS) and track record suggest that he should continue to swipe bags.

His .300 average does not seem quite so repeatable though. His .357 BABIP seems inflated, as there is no sane reason to expect a catcher to run a .310 BABIP on ground balls. He was also prone to pop-up, posting an IFFB% of 16 percent. Add in some liner luck (.738 vs. a career mark of .690), and Realmuto displays all of the signs of batting average regression.

Note that batting average regression does not mean a bad batting average. Realmuto rarely strikes out (18.3 percent K%), a feat supported by a solid 8.5 percent SwStr%. Realmuto therefore puts the ball in play more often than not. He also figures to sustain a slightly plus BABIP by generally avoiding fly balls (30.3 percent FB% last season), mitigating the BABIP damage his inflated IFFB% can do. This also limits his power potential, but his 8.2 percent career HR/FB suggests that he does not offer much pop anyway.

Overall, Realmuto should hit about .280 with a scattering of homers and steals. There are reports that he will platoon some at first base in addition to his catching duties, giving him additional PAs to rack up counting stats while making his batting average more beneficial in fantasy. Considering the fantasy landscape for catchers, Realmuto seems to be worth his current ADP.

Verdict: Champ

 

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY): ADP: 49.7

If you did not hear about Sanchez during the 2016 season, allow me to be the first to welcome you to planet Earth. He hit .299/.376/.657 with 20 bombs in just 229 PAs last year, earning Rookie of the Year consideration despite playing for only a third of a season. No one thinks he is going to maintain last season's 40 percent HR/FB, but he is projected to hit for plenty of power if his ADP is any indication.

Indeed, his power seems real. He clubbed 10 homers at Triple-A before his call-up last season, and hit 25 homers across three minor league levels in 2015. Statcast adored him too, as Sanchez led all of baseball by producing a barrelled hit in 18.8 percent of his batted ball events. He is a clear pull hitter in a stadium favoring power, so the homers should keep flying in 2017.

Sadly, his batting average figures to drop like a stone. Most of his damage was done in August, when Sanchez hit .389/.458/.832 with 11 homers on a BABIP of .413. September still saw Sanchez smash nine dingers, but his .225/.314/.520 line was not nearly as pretty. His .226 BABIP in September may seem like an over-correction, but I'm not sure it was. Sanchez pulls a ton of grounders, leading to plenty of shifts that held him to a .239 average last year. His 16.4 percent LD% was also significantly lower than league average, a troubling sign if it proves to be his norm. He has no wheels to speak of and seems destined to try to hit as many airborne baseballs as possible.

Add in a propensity to strikeout (24.9 percent K%, 13 percent SwStr%), and you get a guy who might struggle to stay above the Mendoza line. Sanchez is fine at C if you can handle the batting average risk, but he leaves the board so early that you cannot protect yourself from it before selecting him. The addition of Matt Holliday could limit his DH time on off days from catching too, biting into his counting stats. Don't waste a top-50 pick based on one hot month.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel8 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray8 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele8 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons10 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler11 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele11 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans11 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic11 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric11 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney11 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga11 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant11 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith11 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen11 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara11 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele12 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes12 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson12 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic12 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar12 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton12 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones12 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji12 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee12 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards12 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani12 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson12 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo12 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley12 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque12 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez13 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler13 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel13 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley14 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal14 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes15 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis15 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer16 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw17 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler17 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager17 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz17 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds19 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano20 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad21 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov22 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto22 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin22 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard22 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins22 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist22 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear22 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins3 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams3 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF