X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champs or Chumps - Chris Devenski & Andrew Toles

The 2017 season is still far too short of a sample size to conclude anything using numbers, but the human element of player deployment is beginning to come into focus. If a player's role differs drastically from what we thought it would be during draft season, his value could explode. Getting these guys on your roster for free is a great way to gain an advantage over your competition.

With that in mind, I would like to present two players who should be owned in nearly all formats but are currently owned in very few. Houston's Chris Devenski is primed to boost fantasy rosters more than a traditional set-up guy like Dellin Betances ever could. Andrew Toles is leading off most of the time for the Dodgers, a role that would give him significant roto value even if he lacked talent (he doesn't).

I have personally maximized my exposure to both of these players and suggest you do the same. Care to find out exactly why?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Chris Devenski (SP/RP, HOU) ADP: 338.7

Devenski received very little publicity last season, but his 2.16 ERA and 25.5 percent K% in 108.1 IP deserved your attention. There was talk of stretching him out as a starter or converting him into a traditional late-inning reliever in the offseason, but his first 2017 appearance suggests that he will occupy a fireman role.

Devenski entered a tied game in the 8th inning, ultimately twirling four full frames and striking out seven in his appearance. He did not walk a batter, allow a hit, or give up a run in that time frame. The Astros also had four chances to earn him a W, which is a lot more than most relievers get. If Devenski continues in this role, he should get plenty of vulture wins to go with outstanding ratios over a workload of around 100 IP. That would easily outproduce Betances, even if the latter's ratios are a little better.

Devenski lacks Betances's name recognition, so you may be wondering if he can keep up the sterling performance. He can. His Ks are the result of two elite offerings, a changeup (21 percent SwStr%, 47.1 percent chase rate in 2016) and a slider (23 percent SwStr%, 40.3 percent chase rate). Both pitches also posted excellent triple slash lines against (.193/.234/.240 and .079/.079/.079 respectively). His heater's 57 percent Zone% is enough to keep the walks away, and it wasn't bad when put in play either (.233/.297/.345). Devenski also features a knuckle-curve that shows some promise, but its .310/.310/.345 line against last season suggests that the 26-year old needs to refine it a little more.

The only downside with Devenski is homers allowed, as he is a fly ball pitcher in a hitter's park that somehow managed a 3.5 percent HR/FB last year. Regression would likely raise his ERA a little, but it would still be a fantasy asset. A guy eligible at both SP (five GS last year) and RP who can help in every single fantasy stat should be owned in far more than 13 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Verdict: Champ

 

Andrew Toles (OF, LAD) ADP: 367.5

One of my preseason columns endorsed Logan Forsythe largely on the basis of his presumed role as leadoff man for one of the deepest lineups in the NL. He is leading off against lefties, but Andrew Toles came out of nowhere to seize the gig against RHP. The role should produce plenty of PAs and runs scored no matter who occupies it, making it a sin that Toles is owned in only four percent of Yahoo formats.

Yet Toles is interesting regardless of his role. He hit .314/.365/.505 with three bombs and a steal in 155 MLB PAs last year, hinting at average upside if given a regular role. He had a .385 BABIP to produce those numbers, but Toles looks like a plus BABIP guy. His largest minor league sample produced a .402 BABIP in 552 PAs at A ball in 2013, and he also posted plus marks at Double-A (.355 in 190 PAs) and Triple-A (.340 in 59 PAs) last year.

Toles's MLB profile also suggests a plus BABIP. His plus legs should sustain most of his .333 BABIP on ground balls, while his slightly plus 22.2 percent LD% could reasonably become his baseline moving forward. He generally keeps the ball out of the air (29.6 percent FB%) and pops it up even less often (4.2 percent IFFB%). His BABIP is likely to regress to a degree, but not as much as some would expect. Considering that he always has the platoon advantage when he plays, a .290+ average is possible.

His 21.7 percent K% last year was fine on the surface, but his underlying 14.2 percent SwStr% and 38.7 percent chase rate were atrocious. Still, I don't think Toles will strikeout too often. He did not K in his brief samples at Double-A (15.8 percent K%) or Triple-A (13.6 percent K%), while his 88 percent Z-Contact% suggests a reasonable ability to put the bat on the ball. Even if plate discipline growth does not occur this year, his 56.3 percent Swing% should end PAs before he has a chance to strikeout.

Toles hit 10 homers last year across all levels, suggesting that he will not contribute much in the power categories. He makes up for it with SB upside, once stealing 62 bags in a single minor league campaign (2013). He swiped 23 last year, though the nine CS accompanying them were a bit much. Growth and experience could see him grow into a 20-30 steal threat. Toles lost valuable development time after taking 2015 off for "personal issues," making him even more raw than his 24 years of age would indicate.

There is a lot we don't know about Toles. His MLB experience is limited, and his minor league record has a gaping hole with no real explanation. He is leading off for a good team right now, though, and we know too much about his primary obstacle for playing time: Andre Ethier. He's 34 years old, hasn't accumulated 500 PAs since 2013, and doesn't have a recent track record of offensive excellence. The Dodgers, and you, should probably gamble on the unknown instead.

Verdict: Champ

 

More Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler O'Neill14 mins ago

Red Sox Place Tyler O'Neill On Seven-Day Injured List
Paul Skenes27 mins ago

Needs More Time At Triple-A
Nathaniel Lowe53 mins ago

May Need More Rehab At-Bats
Tyler O'Neill1 hour ago

Out Again Thursday
Randy Arozarena1 hour ago

Resting On Thursday
Rafael Devers2 hours ago

Will Undergo MRI On Knee
Andrew Wiggins3 hours ago

To Be On The Trade Block In Offseason
Damian Lillard3 hours ago

Expected To Log Full Practice On Friday
Kawhi Leonard4 hours ago

Clippers "Preparing" To Have Kawhi Leonard Available In Game 1
Sam Merrill4 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Game 1
Dean Wade4 hours ago

Unlikely To Play In Game 1
Alex Caruso4 hours ago

Doubtful For Friday With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Jimmy Butler4 hours ago

Feared To Have Suffered MCL Injury
Trea Turner12 hours ago

Extends Hitting Streak To Seven Games
Mike Trout12 hours ago

Hits American League-High Eighth Homer
Tanner Houck12 hours ago

Makes Quick Work Of Guardians
Cristopher Sánchez13 hours ago

Cristopher Sanchez Cruises Past Rockies
Bryce Miller13 hours ago

Dazzles Against Reds
Kyle Schwarber13 hours ago

Raps Two Home Runs
Robert Stephenson13 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of 2024
Dougie Hamilton14 hours ago

Could Have Returned For Playoffs
Nikita Kucherov14 hours ago

Reaches 100 Assists
Donovan Mitchell14 hours ago

"100 Percent" For Postseason
Auston Matthews15 hours ago

Fails To Score Goal No. 70 Wednesday
Tyler Herro15 hours ago

Leads All Scorers In Loss
Jimmy Butler15 hours ago

Has A Big Night On Wednesday
Joel Embiid15 hours ago

Logs 38 Minutes In Win
Daulton Varsho15 hours ago

Two Homers Not Enough In Loss
Esteury Ruiz15 hours ago

Goes Yard In Lineup Return
Juan Soto16 hours ago

Totals Seven Bases In Comeback Win
Ronald Acuña Jr.16 hours ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. Finally Homers Wednesday
Kodai Senga16 hours ago

Throws First Bullpen Session
Gerrit Cole16 hours ago

Plays Catch On Back-To-Back Days
J.K. Dobbins17 hours ago

Planning To Sign With Chargers
Tyler O'Neill18 hours ago

Unlikely To Return Thursday
Duncan Robinson18 hours ago

Active On Wednesday
Joel Embiid18 hours ago

Will Play On Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani19 hours ago

Collects Three Hits
Calvin Pickard20 hours ago

Getting The Start Wednesday
Matt Tomkins21 hours ago

Starting Regular Season Finale Wednesday
Luke Hughes21 hours ago

To Play For USA At World Championships
NYI21 hours ago

Ruslan Iskhakov Could Make NHL Debut Wednesday
Timo Meier22 hours ago

Dealt With MCL, Oblique Injuries In 2023-24
MON22 hours ago

Canadiens Exercise Two-Year Option On Martin St. Louis
Jontay Porter22 hours ago

Banned For Violating Gambling Policy
Ayo Dosunmu22 hours ago

Gets Shots Up Wednesday
Evgenii Dadonov22 hours ago

To Return Wednesday
Zion Williamson22 hours ago

Out For Two Weeks
Marc-Andre Fleury22 hours ago

Signs One-Year Extension With Wild
De'Von Achane23 hours ago

Looking Shredded
Brock Bowers23 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers
Spencer Rattler23 hours ago

Giants Visit With Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler
Adam Hadwin1 day ago

Too Volatile To Touch At RBC Heritage
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

A Boring Play At RBC Heritage
Tom Kim1 day ago

Heads To Hilton Head Looking For Consistency
Emiliano Grillo1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC Heritage
Chris Kirk1 day ago

A Safe Option For RBC Heritage
Adam Schenk1 day ago

Trending Up Ahead of RBC Heritage
Lucas Glover1 day ago

Looks To Reverse Fortune At Harbour Town
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Should Contend At Harbour Town
Max Homa1 day ago

Be Wary Of Max Homas At RBC Heritage
Rickie Fowler1 day ago

In Poor Form Heading To Harbour Town
Eric Cole1 day ago

Out Of Form Heading To RBC Heritage
Chris Paul1 day ago

Steve Kerr Hopes Chris Paul Remains With The Warriors
Sepp Straka1 day ago

Continues Maddening Run Of Inconsistent Play
Klay Thompson1 day ago

Warriors Want Klay Thompson Back Next Season
Malik Monk1 day ago

Unsure If He Can Return In First Round Of Playoffs
Onuralp Bitim1 day ago

Ruled Out For Postseason
Keegan Bradley1 day ago

Looking To Get Over The Hump At Harbour Town
KJ Martin1 day ago

Kenyon Martin Jr. Questionable Wednesday
Tony Finau1 day ago

Looking To Find Putting Stroke At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris1 day ago

Makes Return To Harbour Town
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston A Decent Leverage Play With Upside At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Brings Near-Perfect Course History To Harbour Town
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

A Perfect Fit For Harbour Town, But Take Caution
Jake Knapp2 days ago

In Solid Form Heading To Harbour Town
Nick Taylor2 days ago

In Bounce-Back Spot At Harbour Town
Justin Rose2 days ago

Searching For Form Heading To RBC Heritage
Lane Hutson2 days ago

Records First NHL Point Tuesday
ANA2 days ago

Cutter Gauthier To Make NHL Debut Thursday
WPG2 days ago

Jets Clinch Second Place In Central Tuesday
WAS2 days ago

Capitals Clinch Final Postseason Spot In The East
FLA2 days ago

Panthers Clinch Atlantic Division, Will Face Tampa Bay In Round 1
NHL2 days ago

Bruins, Maple Leafs To Meet In First Round
Royce Freeman2 days ago

Cowboys Sign Royce Freeman To One-Year Deal
Nick Chubb2 days ago

No Timetable For Nick Chubb's Return
Jet Greaves2 days ago

Making Fourth Straight Start Tuesday
Trevor Lawrence2 days ago

Feeling 100% Healthy
Spencer Martin2 days ago

Starting Regular-Season Finale
Anthony Stolarz2 days ago

Between The Pipes Tuesday
James Reimer2 days ago

Starting Must-Win Game Tuesday
Deshaun Watson2 days ago

Says He's "Throwing Full Speed"
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

"Nothing Imminent" Between Dolphins, Odell Beckham Jr.
Jaylen Waddle2 days ago

Dolphins To Pick Up Jaylen Waddle's Fifth-Year Option
Detroit Lions2 days ago

Taylor Decker Had Offseason Surgery
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Doesn't Report For Voluntary Workouts
Michael Penix Jr.3 days ago

Visiting With Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders3 days ago

Maxx Crosby Back To 100 Percent
Brock Bowers3 days ago

Visiting With Jets
J.J. McCarthy3 days ago

Patriots Visiting With J.J. McCarthy On Monday
Daniel Jones3 days ago

Plan Is For Daniel Jones To Be Fully Cleared For Training Camp
Aaron Rodgers3 days ago

Reports For Voluntary Workouts
Indianapolis Colts3 days ago

Colts, DeForest Buckner Agree To Two-Year Extension
Rashee Rice3 days ago

To Be Virtual To Start Offseason Program
CeeDee Lamb3 days ago

Not Expected To Attend Start Of Voluntary Program
Alex Pereira3 days ago

Defends Light-Heavyweight Title At UFC 300
Jamahal Hill3 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 300
Yan Xiaonan3 days ago

Unsuccessful In Bid To Capture UFC Title
Arman Tsarukyan3 days ago

Edges Out Competitive Decision At UFC 300
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Finishes Seventh At Texas Motor Speedway
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Earns Top 10 Finish In Backup Car At Texas Motor Speedway
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Emerges Victorious in Texas Race Riddled with Cautions
William Byron3 days ago

Finishes Third at Texas After Wrecking Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Gets Wrecked on Final Lap at Texas While Battling for the Lead
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Sees Dominant Day Slip Away at Texas Due To Loose Wheel
NASCAR3 days ago

Daniel Suárez the Luckiest Driver at Texas, Scores Top Five
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Late Spinout Costs Denny Hamlin Likely Second-Place Finish
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Had Speed at Texas, But Burnt by Pit Crew
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Was Best Ford Driver Until Wreck With Ryan Preece
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Earns Hard-Fought Fourth Place Finish At Texas
Austin Dillon4 days ago

Gains His Best Finish Of The Year At Texas
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Rounds Out Top Ten At Texas
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Ends Up Sixth At Texas
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Great Tournament Option At Texas
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Starts From the Rear After Texas Practice Crash
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Should Chase Elliott Be Rostered In DFS For Texas?
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Can Ty Gibbs Score His First Win At Texas?
Cody Brundage4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 300
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Quality Value Play For Texas
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 300
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Will Start 11th At Texas On Sunday
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Brings Continued Upside To Texas
Justin Gaethje4 days ago

Gets KO'd At UFC 300
Max Holloway4 days ago

Scores Highlight-Reel KO At UFC 300
Zhang Weili4 days ago

Retains Strawweight Title At UFC 300
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 Dynasty Startup Blueprint - FFPC Draft Strategies and More

There's nothing quite like the feel of a new dynasty startup and the anticipation of your incoming draft slot as you decide which players you want to make up the cornerstone of your roster for years to come. While we still have to wait four months for some live NFL action, the good news about... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Mock Draft: First-Rounder with Trades

The 2024 NFL Draft is less than 10 days away. Yet, the next several days will feel like a lifetime for NFL Draft fans. While everyone wants to discuss the quarterback class and the first few picks, the NFL Draft doesn’t end after the first round. This year’s draft class will have several impact players... Read More


Ja'Marr Chase fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Who is the Top Wide Receiver in 2024 Fantasy Football?

It feels like just yesterday we watched Patrick Mahomes get showered in confetti, lifting the Lombardi Trophy for the third time. The NFL Draft is nearly upon us, though, and the fantasy football offseason is beginning to pick up steam. It's never too early to predict which players will sit atop the leaderboards at the... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Blockbuster Trade Ideas for the 2024 NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft is three weeks away, and the rumor mill is heating up. While the NFL Draft is full of chaos and excitement without trade action, everyone loves to see a blockbuster deal made. A few expected blockbuster deals are getting thrown around on social media, headlined by the Minnesota Vikings trading into... Read More


Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

Quarterback 2024 NFL Mock Draft - Projected Landing Spots and NFL Draft Analysis

Believe it or not, the 2024 NFL Draft is less than two weeks away. While we can never make a perfect prediction of which teams will select which players, we do have a strong sense of major areas of weakness for individual teams. With that in mind, we can explore some of the teams that... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Florio's NFL/Fantasy Football Scouting Report: Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze

Back in the day, there was a narrative about the “third-year breakout” for wide receivers. But in the last decade, we have seen more and more rookies make an immediate impact both in the NFL and in fantasy football. Two of the three-highest-scoring PPR seasons by a rookie WR have happened in the last three... Read More


DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Eagles Clash - A.J. Brown vs. DeVonta Smith for 2024 Fantasy Football

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have now played together in Philadelphia for two full seasons. The only major difference was at offensive coordinator. In 2022, it was Shane Steichen, while in 2023, it was Brian Johnson. In 2024, it’ll be Kellen Moore.  Brown was a second-round pick back in 2019, while Smith was a first-rounder... Read More


Drake Maye - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, QB, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft – Predicting First-Round Picks for the AFC East

The 2024 NFL Draft is less than 10 days away. Unfortunately, the next several days will feel like a year for NFL Draft fans. Caleb Williams will be the top pick in the draft this year. However, what will happen after the Chicago Bears select the USC superstar? Many believe at least two more quarterbacks... Read More


Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

2024 NFL Draft – Predicting First-Round Picks for the AFC West

The 2024 NFL Draft is nearly here. Fans only need to wait nine more days until the big event. Everyone knows the Chicago Bears will take Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. While many expect the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots to draft a quarterback with the second and third pick, no one... Read More


Anthony Richardson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL News

Offseason Injury Updates for NFL Quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, and Daniel Jones

Although the 2024 NFL season is roughly five months away, there's never a wrong time to keep up with the latest injury news, especially regarding key quarterbacks. The 2023 season was not kind to the quarterback position, so hopefully, the six players on this list can stay healthy after dealing with long-term ailments. We have... Read More


Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Re-Drafting The 2017 NFL Draft: Entire First Round Do-Over

With just over a week until the start of the NFL Draft, the buzz has become palpable. It's a time when football fans look to the future, pining over incoming rookies and crossing their fingers in hopes that their team will select its next cornerstone piece. While first-round picks are prized possessions, let us not... Read More


Is Ryan Tannehill a Free Agent? Top Landing Spots for Tannehill This Offseason

In 2019, the Miami Dolphins traded starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill to the Tennessee Titans. As part of the trade, Tannehill signed a one-year, $7 million deal with Tennessee to back up then-starter Marcus Mariota. The latter was eventually benched, and Tannehill took the opportunity and ran with it. After his stellar play, he was rewarded... Read More


Justin Herbert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Justin Herbert - 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

At times, the dynasty football marketplace can feel like the Wild West. Player values move up and down based on any significant (or insignificant) transactions, news items, or social media posts. With that said, we must always think about how certain players should be valued. What’s a player’s current value? Are they overvalued or undervalued... Read More