X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Sleepers and Busts - Closers

Where an owner drafts closers comes down to personal strategy and philosophy. Some owners are willing spend up for high-end closers like Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, while others are content to let closers fly off the board deep into the draft and scrounge for saves late.

For those of us unwilling to invest in expensive closers, we need to wade through the middle and late-tier reliever pool to get value.

Here are a couple of closers to target in the mid-late tiers, and a couple to avoid. ADP data is based on NFBC ADP as of 03/19/2018.

Featured Promo: Get your MLB Premium Pass for 50% off the regular price with any full-season pass. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Undervalued Relief Pitchers

Jeurys Familia, New York Mets – 170th Overall, 19th RP

Injuries limited Familia to just 24.2 innings in 2017, and he missed 3 and half months due to a blood clot in his right shoulder. This has caused the once upper-mid tier closer to tumble down draft boards. The good news is that unlike other scary injuries, such as forearm issues that have owners afraid of Mark Melancon and Kelvin Herrera, this blood clot issue shouldn’t linger and doesn’t foretell greater injury. In his limited 2017 action Familia wasn’t his usual self, with a 4.38 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, and 9.12 K/9. His walk rate also ballooned to 5.47 BB/9. This 2017 performance coupled with his poor spring training (7.11 ERA in 6.1 innings as of 03/18) may have people thinking he won’t recover.

There are reasons to be encouraged with Familia. First, despite the injury Familia’s fastball still clocked in at 97 MPH, and his sinker was 96.1 MPH. These are both slightly below his career averages, but he didn't have the stark velocity drop that is often seen in injured pitchers as they implode. Another reason to be optimistic is the context of Familia’s high ERA last season. He surrendered seven of his 12 earned runs in two appearances, the one just before he hit the disabled list, and his first game returning from the disabled list. In those two appearances Familia pitched 1.1 innings and gave up six hits, eight runs (seven earned), and four walks. If we eliminate those two games from his overall numbers Familia has a 1.95 ERA in 23.1 innings instead of the 4.38 he had in 24.2 innings. It’s not fair to totally disregard those performances, but it at least offers context to his ugly overall numbers. Out of all the injury bounce back closers, Familia is the one worth targeting late. The injury is less likely to recur compared to forearm injuries in other pitchers, and his skills haven’t deteriorated.

Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics – 175th Overall, 21st RP

It’s understandable why Treinen is going this late. His ERA was nearly four last season, he only had an 8.8 K/9, and he’s the closer on a team that’s been in the cellar for the past three seasons. Now that the bad is out of the way, let’s dig into the good. After being traded from Washington to Oakland, Treinen flourished as the full-time closer. In 38 innings, he had a 2.13 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 9.9 K/9 with the Athletics. He was everything owners look for in a closer. Of course, 38 innings is a small sample size, and Treinen was horrible in 37.2 innings with the Nationals before getting traded. He had a 5.73 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9 before getting shipped out west.

So how do we know that the second half Treinen is the real Treinen? His success was driven by a deadly sinker/slider combination that baffles even the games best hitters. In 2017, Treinen’s sinker averaged 97.4 MPH, giving him the second-highest sinker velocity in the majors among pitchers that pitched at least 50 innings. This sinker has allowed Treinen to have an elite 61.4% groundball rate throughout his career. That sinker pairs excellently with his nigh unhittable slider. Batters have hit .147 against with a 24.1% whiff rate against Treinen's slider over the course of his career.

After being traded to the Athletics Treinen ditched his four seam fastball for his slider. While in Washington Treinen threw his slider 19% of the time, and threw is four seam fastball 20% of the time. After the trade he upped his slider usage to 30.7% and more than halved his four seam usage down to 9.4%. The results in Oakland speak for themselves. This two-pitch mix is the stuff late-inning relievers are made of, and as the 21st closer off the board Treinen is a great upside pick.

 

Overvalued Relief Pitchers

Greg Holland, Unsigned – 167th Overall, 17th RP

Not only does Holland not have a guaranteed closer job, he doesn’t even have a team. It seems accepted that when Holland finally finds a home he’ll automatically slide into the closer’s role. A month ago that seemed likely, but we’re less than two weeks from opening day and he hasn’t even thrown a pitch in 2018 yet. He’s been linked to Arizona, Atlanta, and Texas recently by Jon Heyman of FanRag sports, though nothing seems imminent. With every passing day it seems more likely that Holland is not going to be a closer for one of the 30 MLB teams by March 29th. 167 is too high to speculate on saves.

Team situation aside, there is doubt surrounding Holland’s skills. He collected 41 saves for the Rockies in 2017, but it wasn’t pretty. Those 41 saves came with a 3.61 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, and 4.08 BB/9. Holland’s fastball also clocked in at 93.8 MPH, three MPH less than his 96.9 MPH peak in 2013. His fastball also got obliterated by hitters in 2017. Batters hit .303 against the pitch with a .236 ISO. Holland’s fastball was never his bread and butter, that was the slider, and the slider is still effective. However, the deterioration of his fastball leaves Holland with only one effective pitch.

There are ways to rationalize Holland’s 2017 struggles. It was his first season back from Tommy John Surgery, and he pitched his home games at Coors Field. Holland actually performed worse on the road (3.90 ERA, 4.58 xFIP) then he did at home (3.34 ERA, 3.56 xFIP). His .252 BABIP against was also unusually low given his .293 career BABIP against and the fact that he pitched in Coors field. Everything is trending downwards, and Holland’s days as a high-end closer seem long gone. Even if he finds a job as a closer, he might be a ratio killer. There are better options going later than Holland.

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays - 127th Overall, 14th RP

Colome broke out big time in 2016, emerging as the Rays closer and locking up 37 saves with a 1.91 ERA and 11.28 K/9. He followed it up by leading the majors with 47 saves in 2017, but his performance took a step back. In 2017 Colome had a 3.24 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, and 7.83 K/9, leaving doubts as to whether Colome can be the lights out closer we thought he was. There was an obvious cause to Colome’s struggles in 2017--his four-seam fastball. Despite gaining 0.4 MPH on his fastball, Colome lost all effectiveness with the pitch. Batters destroyed Colome’s four seamer, hitting .369 against it with a .246 ISO. This caused Colome to throw his four seamer just 32.7% of the time after throwing it 52.1% of the time in 2016. He was forced to rely on his cutter 67.3% of the time. Colome's cutter is elite and it’s the reason he broke out in the first place. But even with his amazing cutter Colome needs to at least have a usable fastball to recapture his 2016 performance.

Colome’s fastball struggled because it became straighter, and because he lost the ability to command it. He lost over an inch of horizontal movement from 2016 to 2017 on an already average four seamer. Colome also found himself unable to throw the pitch for strikes consistently. To demonstrate this, we’ll compare his fastball heatmaps against lefties from 2016 to 2017. These charts were taken from fangraphs.com.

 

He threw the pitch lower, out of the zone, and away from left-handed hitters significantly more in 2017 compared to 2016. It’s not that we expect good results from fastballs in the zone, but Colome needs to have a fastball he can rely on so he can mix it with that devastating cutter. This change resulted in a jump in walks against lefties. He walked lefties 8.3% of the time in 2016, and 12.1% of the time in 2017. He also surrendered 10.9% more hard contact in 2017 to lefties, giving up hard contact 35.9% of the time. Unless Colome can regain his 2016 fastball, we won’t see a performance like 2016. That makes him a low strikeout closer, who’s ERA will likely be north of three, on a team that lost several significant pieces during the offseason. This is not the mid-tier closer to buy.

 

More 2018 MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zac Gallen3 hours ago

Gets Opening Day Nod
Nolan Schanuel4 hours ago

Injury Isn't Serious
Isaiah Stewart5 hours ago

Injured Against Boston
Duncan Robinson5 hours ago

Doesn't Return On Monday
Jackson Chourio5 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Anthony Davis6 hours ago

Cleared To Meet Atlanta
Blake Snell6 hours ago

Heading To The Giants
Onyeka Okongwu6 hours ago

To Return On Monday
Bryce McGowens7 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Tyus Jones7 hours ago

Won't Play On Tuesday
Deni Avdija7 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Nick Martinez7 hours ago

To Open The Year In The Rotation
OG Anunoby7 hours ago

Set For Multi-Game Absence
Kyle Kuzma7 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday
Luka Doncic7 hours ago

Considered Probable For Tuesday
Matt McLain7 hours ago

Scratched With Shoulder Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly7 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of Season
Kenley Jansen7 hours ago

Scheduled To Make Four More Spring Appearances
Jackson Chourio7 hours ago

"In The Mix" For Roster Spot
Rudy Gobert8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Scoot Henderson8 hours ago

Returns To Starting Unit Without Restrictions
Matisse Thybulle8 hours ago

Available Again On Monday
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Monday
Lauri Markkanen8 hours ago

Returns To Action On Monday
Alex Caruso8 hours ago

Ready To Roll Monday
Coby White8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Kristaps Porzingis8 hours ago

Returns To Celtics Lineup
Jaylen Brown8 hours ago

Ready To Go On Monday
Jayson Tatum8 hours ago

Won't Play Against Detroit
Teuvo Teravainen9 hours ago

Misses Second Straight Game
Joshua Dobbs9 hours ago

49ers Reach Agreement With Joshua Dobbs
TOR9 hours ago

Mitch Marner To Miss At Least Two More Games
Jacob Markstrom9 hours ago

Could Return This Weekend
Rico Dowdle9 hours ago

Staying With Cowboys
Mikhail Sergachev9 hours ago

Skates On Monday
Dustin Wolf9 hours ago

Between The Pipes Monday
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Expected To Sign Chase Young
Alexander Mattison9 hours ago

Signing With Raiders
DJ LeMahieu11 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Opening Day
Buffalo Bills11 hours ago

Taron Johnson Re-Signs With Bills On Three-Year Deal
José Urquidy11 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Has Forearm Strain, Will Begin On Injured List
Justin Verlander11 hours ago

Expected To Face Hitters "In The Next Day Or Two"
Corey Seager11 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice Monday
Aaron Judge11 hours ago

Likely To Play In Four Of Final Six Spring Games
Garrett Crochet11 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Nolan Schanuel11 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness
Dallas Cowboys11 hours ago

Leighton Vander Esch Calling It A Career
DJ LeMahieu13 hours ago

Still Pretty Sore
Aaron Judge13 hours ago

To Return On Wednesday
Jhoan Duran13 hours ago

To Begin Season On Injured List
Bryan Battle13 hours ago

Bout Ends in Controversy
Ange Loosa13 hours ago

Fight Ruled A No-Contest After Accidental Eye Poke
Ovince Saint Preux14 hours ago

Wins Split Decision In A Back-And-Forth Fight
Kennedy Nzechukwu14 hours ago

Suffers Split-Decision Loss To Ovince Saint Preux
Gerald Meerschaert14 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Shohei Ohtani14 hours ago

Cleared To Begin Throwing Program
Bryan Barberena14 hours ago

Submitted In The Second Round
Kyle Manzardo14 hours ago

Sent To Minor-League Camp
Jackson Merrill14 hours ago

Wins Center Field Job
Denny Hamlin15 hours ago

Emerges Victorious For Second Bristol Win In A Row
Alexander Mattison15 hours ago

Visiting With Raiders
Dak Prescott15 hours ago

Cowboys Restructure Dak Prescott's Contract
Dmitry Orlov16 hours ago

Collects Four Points In Big Win
Tyler Toffoli16 hours ago

Dominates Against Columbus With Three Points
Lucas Raymond17 hours ago

Pots Pair Of Goals Versus Penguins
Kaz Grala17 hours ago

Finishes 19th At Bristol Motor Speedway
Bo Horvat17 hours ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Brad Keselowski17 hours ago

Exceeds Value In DFS At Bristol Motor Speedway
Pavel Buchnevich17 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Ryan Lindgren17 hours ago

Suffers Leg Injury Versus Islanders
Kyle Larson17 hours ago

After 5th at Bristol: "I Hope I Never Have To Run A Race Like That Again"
Chase Elliott17 hours ago

Earns First Top 10 Finish Of 2024
Justin Haley18 hours ago

Earns Best NextGen Short Track Finish for Rick Ware Racing
Ty Gibbs18 hours ago

Has Dominant Day at Bristol but Fades Late
John Hunter Nemechek22 hours ago

Found Speed At Bristol
Chris Buescher23 hours ago

Secures Top 10 At Bristol
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Late Charge to Fourth Masks Early Race Struggles
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Ran Well, But His Teammates Were All Better
Martin Truex Jr1 day ago

. Matches Career-Best Finish At Bristol
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Fades to 16th at Bristol After Handling Struggles
Russell Wilson2 days ago

Still Considered The Starter
William Byron2 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Bristol
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Starts 19th At Bristol After Damage In Practice
Justin Haley2 days ago

Scores A Starting Position Of 32nd For Bristol
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Should Compete For The Win At Bristol
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

History Indicates Brad Keselowski Being A Favorable Bristol Play
Joey Logano2 days ago

Should Be Rostered With Caution At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is Tyler Reddick Worth Rostering At Bristol This Week?
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Could Work As A Tournament Play At Bristol
Alexander Nylander2 days ago

Totals Three Points In Saturday's Win
Sebastian Aho2 days ago

Leads Hurricanes To Victory In Toronto
Owen Tippett2 days ago

Delivers Three Assists In High-Scoring Loss
Steven Stamkos2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Four-Point Performance
Nick Schmaltz2 days ago

Records Three Assists In Win Over New Jersey
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Racks Up Five Points In Saturday's Win
Brady Tkachuk2 days ago

Sinks Islanders With Third Hat Trick
Pannie Kianzad2 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Macy Chiasson2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Isaac Dulgarian2 days ago

Suffers First Career Loss
Christian Rodriguez2 days ago

Overcomes Early Adversity At UFC Vegas 88
Tai Tuivasa2 days ago

Suffers Fourth Straight Loss
Marcin Tybura2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission
Justin Fields2 days ago

Traded To The Steelers
NHL2 days ago

Lukas Reichel Will Be In The Lineup Sunday
Cale Makar2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Zach Parise2 days ago

Likely To Return Saturday
Michael Gallup3 days ago

Panthers Bringing In Michael Gallup For A Visit
Mike Williams3 days ago

Panthers To Host Mike Williams On A Visit
New York Jets3 days ago

Jets Expected To Sign Tyron Smith
AJ Dillon3 days ago

Officially Re-Signs With Packers
Van Jefferson3 days ago

Steelers Signing Van Jefferson
Jakobi Meyers3 days ago

Raiders Restructure Jakobi Meyers' Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo3 days ago

Rams Agree With Jimmy Garoppolo On One-Year Deal
Gerald Meerschaert3 days ago

To Fight In Main Event Of UFC Vegas 88
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Kennedy Nzechukwu3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Ovince Saint Preux3 days ago

Set For 27th UFC Appearance
Bryan Battle3 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ange Loosa3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 88
San Francisco 49ers3 days ago

De'Vondre Campbell Heading To San Francisco
Dallas Cowboys3 days ago

Leighton Vander Esch Being Cut By Cowboys
Michael Gallup3 days ago

Cowboys Releasing Michael Gallup
Kenny Pickett4 days ago

Steelers Sending Kenny Pickett To Eagles
Pannie Kianzad5 days ago

Looking For Redemption At UFC Vegas 88
Macy Chiasson5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 88
Isaac Dulgarian5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 88
Christiaan Bezuidenhout6 days ago

Looking To Put It All Together At TPC Sawgrass
Eric Cole6 days ago

Rebounding Well In The Sunshine State
Brian Harman6 days ago

Playing The Dark-Horse Role Again At The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick6 days ago

Searching For Answers Thus Far In 2024
Sahith Theegala6 days ago

One Of The Tour's Fastest Risers To Start The New Year
Sam Burns6 days ago

Brings A Stellar Run Of Form Into TPC Sawgrass
PGA6 days ago

Sungjae Im Trending Up After Arnold Palmer Success
Jason Day6 days ago

Facing Iron Hiccup Heading To The Players
Tom Hoge6 days ago

Brings Strong Form And History To Sawgrass
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

Ready For Second Trip To Sawgrass
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Working Toward A Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2024)

The legal tampering period for NFL free agency begins on March 11 at noon EST, so news of signings will be flying in all week. Veterans like Russell Wilson and Jonnu Smith were released before their contracts expired, meaning they got a head start on free agency and have already reached agreements with new organizations.... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Coach Knows Ball: Rome Odunze NFL Draft Film Breakdown of Washington WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Winners and Losers of 2024 NFL Free Agency (Teams)

Well, strap in, folks, because the first week of 2024 NFL Free Agency was a rollercoaster ride. Some teams made power moves while others seemingly snoozed at the switch. The Houston Texans, for instance, came out swinging, pulling off some of the savviest deals that could very well tilt the scales in their favor this... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Next Gen Stats Review: 2023 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

A while back, we covered the Next Gen Stats for running backs, including rushing yards over expected and the percentage of plays with eight or more defenders in the box. Check out the running back review of the Next Gen Stats, as it adds a layer to player analysis. We love the advanced stats for... Read More


Keenan Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Keenan Allen Traded To Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Star wide receiver Keenan Allen has been one of the more underrated players in the NFL over the past few years. He spent the first 11 years of his career with the Los Angeles Chargers, playing for the franchise since their days in San Diego. However, the team reportedly asked Allen to take a pay... Read More


Marquise Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Marquise Brown Signs With Chiefs: Fantasy Football Impact

Veteran wide receiver Marquise Brown signed a one-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday. Brown hopes to follow JuJu Smith-Schuster’s footprints by playing on a one-year deal with the Chiefs and earning a multi-year big-money contract the following offseason. The former Oklahoma star spent the first three years of his career with the... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Will The Vikings Trade Justin Jefferson? 2024 NFL Outlook

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is one of the top players in the NFL. The superstar was part of an impressive 2020 NFL Draft class. Yet, he was the fifth wide receiver off the board. Jefferson has been a superstar since his rookie year, making three consecutive Pro Bowl teams and All-Pro rosters to... Read More


Marquise Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top Free Agency Fits For Marquise Brown – 2024 Free Agent Outlook

Free agent wide receiver Marquise Brown is one of the more explosive players in the NFL. The veteran wide receiver ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at his Pro Day coming out of Oklahoma. He was a first-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft. Brown has spent most of his career as... Read More


Nico Collins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings For 2024 Best Ball Leagues (Tiers 4-9)

We have now entered the process of free agency, which is providing pathways for some wide receivers to seize significant roles in their new landing spots. The player movement that has ensued will also decrease the stock of other receivers whose roles will decrease within their reshaped depth charts. Participation in the best ball draft... Read More


Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2024 Best Ball Tight End Sleepers

Top tight ends such as Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are bound to put up quality fantasy football numbers weekly, but most tight ends are unpredictable. The top tier of tight ends are reliable for fantasy football purposes, but most tight ends are boom-or-bust type of players. Even though it is hard to hit on... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

D'Andre Swift Signs With Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Newly signed Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift has been one of the most promising, but also underperforming running backs across the NFL and the fantasy landscape in recent years. After three injury-riddled seasons in Detroit where he showed flashes of greatness but didn't quite live up to the hype, Swift was traded to the... Read More


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Top 50 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings After the 2024 NFL Combine

With the NFL Combine in our rearview mirror, now is a logical time to put out an up-to-date rankings for this year’s NFL Draft. Below, you will find my top-50 players who have declared for this NFL Draft. Below those ranks, you will also find several fantasy-relevant notes I have on this class, and on... Read More


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Calvin Ridley Signs With Titans: Fantasy Football Impact

The Tennessee Titans made a huge move once NFL free agency officially opened. They signed wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract with $50 million fully guaranteed. Ridley was the top receiver on the open market. The Titans swooped in out of left field and signed him to give second-year quarterback Will... Read More