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A Look at the 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Futures Market


By the end of the weekend, all the lockers at each NFL training facility will be filled. Well, except maybe for a handful of late-arrivals who have yet to come to terms with the executive bean counters. As pro football's summer sessions begin, there are a number of intriguing questions that can make for a worthy debate.

Will the New England roster continue their dynastic run at greatness? Is this really the year the Cleveland Browns step into the limelight? The questions and diversity of viable answers are endless. There is always speculation surrounding which of the incoming rookie class will rise to the top.

At the end of the year the NFL will hand out many annual awards. One gets handed to the rookie player who's excelled on the field. Rookie of the Year (ROY) is also listed on sportsbook futures marketing boards.

Each of the prospective rookies, even those with but a dark horse chance, are on this list. The problem isn't necessarily unearthing who the top three or four players are, but weeding out a couple potential sleepers; rookies with lucrative futures market odds so good, if they do win.

Here's a quick overview of the top 2019 NFL ROY candidates and an interesting block we think might, at the very least, cover up to break even. It's a set of bets using the stack concept, one that has big payout potential. Our crystal ball into the upcoming NFL season is using DraftKing's NFL Futures odds for awards. NFL Depth charts referenced are from Lineups.com.

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A Little ROY History

Obviously, every rookie NFL player is in the pool as a candidate to win the honor as top incoming rookie. There is always a logical order players with the talent, players who will instantly become be plugged into systems where these talents will mean stats.

Even more importantly, the best players to consider are always those in a position to contribute almost immediately. Once upon a time in the NFL, rookie quarterbacks rarely if ever contributed.

From 1957, when Jim Brown ran away with the first offensive rookie of the year award, one quarterback was named top rookie over the next 47 seasons. Big Ben was the first QB to win the offensive ROY since Dennis Shaw did it in 1970. Yeah, we had to go back and look up Dennis Shaw as well.

Since 2004, six more rookie signal callers have won the award. Wide receivers only fared slightly better than quarterbacks. Following Brown, pass catchers won the rookie offensive player award for four consecutive seasons.

One was the only official tight end to ever take the honor, Mike Ditka. However, after one more receiver win in 1963, only seven wide receivers and the single quarterback would bump a running back as the top rookie. Two important parts of the rookie of the year equation played a role in the RB control of the award.

Playing time and counting stats invariably show up in the notes voters keep. While counting stats are not the only category used by voters entrusted with picking the best rookie of the year, they are important. Here's a quick look at the 2019 offensive ROY candidates followed by a stack using the futures market odds on DraftKings.

 

The Candidates' for ROY

Consequently, time on the field playing a statistically viable position helps tremendously when it comes ROY ballot time. Quarterback is logically a high-profile spot. This year's class has one high-profile name, a player who pretty sits perched at the top of everyone's list of candidates.

Kyler Murray is the favorite to win the 2019 NFL ROY, and for good reason. He plays quarterback is the projected opening day starter. Murray is also going to be plugged into a system that will make use of his particular skills.

Now, there isn't anything guaranteeing Murray will win the award for best performance by a rookie. However, he has everything going in his favor at this point. Oddsmakers have combined all the necessary ingredients and tabbed him +200 to win the 2019 NFL ROY.

Murray is also a full +400 ahead of the second ranked player, yet another quarterback. Former Ohio State Buckeye Dwayne Haskins isn't even a lock to start for the Redskins on day-one, but he sits at +600 on the 2019 DraftKings player futures board.

He is a quarterback, and will eventually take over as the starter, even if he doesn't beat out Case Keenum in camp. Now, after these two signal callers is a list of eight position players. The highest probability goes to a running back, plus there is a tight end in the mix.

Third on the board is the first running back from the 2019 draft class. Josh Jacobs is a durable back who has a nose for the end zone. Both are critical talents for putting up numbers worthy of best rookie honors.

One factor that might slip through the cracks is attaching Jacobs to head coach Jon Gruden. During his first two seasons, Cadillac Williams averaged over 280 touches per season. Touches usually equal statistics and statistics equate to consideration for awards.

Now, don't forget Oakland has offensive line issues that must be considered. However, also on the Raider's schedule are six games, four of them against team defenses that ranked in the bottom-third statistically against the rush.

They also match up against at least three other non-divisional defenses that fell to the bottom of the defensive stat rank against runners. These stats, combined with the schedule, make one ponder the possibilities of how big a factor Jacobs will be for the Oakland offense.

Now, are these possibilities strong enough to consider his +700 going rate as the 2019 NFL ROY on offense? Since Jacobs odds are so close to Haskins, you'd almost be as wise to take Murray and forget the rest of the field. But, what about a block bet using the QB, RB and WR stack concept?

 

A 2019 Offensive ROY Stack

The stack concept in fantasy sports pairs a quarterback and pass catcher, usually. It can also team up various offensive players off the same team to earn multiple points. All we're interested in here, is considering the player futures for the 2019 NFL ROY grouped as position stacks.

Okay, let's say both Haskins and Murray simply do not measure up statistically. It could be poor performance, or they lose playing time. With the recent success of rookie quarterbacks in the ROY picture, it may not be wise to discount them both.

Jacobs' potential usage makes him a nice fallback option behind either of the QBs, but, what about the rest of our stack? The available candidates to win the rookie award as a wide receiver is slim. Don't forget the history, or lack thereof, of WRs winning the award.

However, one wide receiver may be quietly riding under the radar. Parris Campbell was one of Haskins' primary targets during their time together in Columbus. Campbell is now a member of the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, they have a pretty good quarterback themselves.

Andrew Luck seems to be almost back at full strength. That should equal more success on long balls, and improved accuracy. Campbell has speed and proven hands. Now, how well his wide receiver stats add up may not be where he earns his pedigree for rookie honors.

Campbell is projected to be an instant success on offense for the Colts, but he's also going to return kicks. Some think he may turn a few heads performing these duties. What makes him even more intriguing from a 2019 NFL ROY stack perspective is the +2,500 odds you'll get.

So, what's our stack suggestion? Well, the odds on Murray winning are just too strong. You have to take him as a season-long starting QB. Jacobs may be behind Haskins, but potential usage makes him easily a good choice for RB. Filing the stack will take one of the possible WRs.

With history as your gauge, it's wise to try to calculate a viable long shot. Parris Campbell has the type of odds to make him worth strong consideration. He's going to be catching passes from an accurate quarterback on a passing offense. Plus, Campbell is going to be part of the return game.

There are a few other players who have merit for possibly winning the 2019 NFL offensive rookie of the year award. However, one QB is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field. Another running back seems to lead that pack of contenders.

History and common sense support Murray and Jacobs as being good choices. However, if you want to make things interesting with an intriguing futures stack, add Campbell as a wide receiver who could surprise the league.

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