It's the largest purse of the year. It's the deepest field of the year. It's the most immaculate course of the year. Welcome to PLAYERS Championship week as the PGA Tour's best are set to compete on the incomparable TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.!
I have carefully evaluated the players to project proper course fits and looked into how they are performing in the categories that matter the most, specifically at TPC Sawgrass. It's a course where multiple skill profiles can all compete, but the harshness of a minor misstep can lead to disaster.
Let's look at my Top-10 Power Rankings for the 2025 PLAYERS:
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No. 10 - Patrick Cantlay
- Cantlay elevates his performance OTT on courses that feature a lot of water like TPC Sawgrass.
- He is a great par five scorer, and his proximity to the hole on approach shots from over 225+ yards ranks seventh in the field.
- One of the best in the field on Pete Dye designed courses but has yet to fully master TPC Sawgrass.
No. 9 - Tommy Fleetwood
- Fleetwood ranks fourth best in the field in SG: Ballstriking on water-heavy golf courses.
- A consistent performer at this event. Four top-35 finishes in the last five years, including a T5 best in 2019.
- Iron play is clicking. Fleetwood gained +4.3 on Approach at Pebble Beach and +5.1 at The Genesis Invitational.
No. 8 - Hideki Matsuyama
- Matsuyama has been elite at TPC Sawgrass. He has three T8 or better finishes in his last four starts here.
- Matsuyama was also the First Round Leader (course record) in 2020 before this event was canceled mid-tournament during COVID.
- Ranks fifth in the field in Approach from 50-125 yards, a more popular range than usual at TPC Sawgrass.
🚨 Another strong showing from Hideki at TPC Sawgrass and he will finish T6 at The Players ✅✅
His scoring on the par 5s was probably what stopped him winning this week, playing them in -7. So many positives to take though as we head towards the majors! pic.twitter.com/7D2MRy1P5j
— Hideki Matsuyama Tracker (@TrackingHideki) March 17, 2024
No. 7 - Russell Henley
- Henley is ultra-reliable OTT, as he leads the field in distance from the edge of the fairway. He simply doesn't miss big, which is huge in this course.
- Back-to-back good starts in Florida leading into this event, albeit he did not have great Sunday finishes.
- No. 1 in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 36 rounds played.
No. 6 - Xander Schauffele
- Undeniable upside, but his game looks a bit rusty after returning from a rib injury last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
- Figured out TPC Sawgrass last year, finishing T2 and narrowly getting edged out by Scottie Scheffler on Sunday.
- His betting price and DFS salary feel like more risk than reward. Only two starts all season for Schauffele, who won two majors last year.
Chatted with Xander Schauffele after his round Sunday. Said he leaves feeling fully healthy, without any setbacks.
“That was the biggest thing. That’s probably the biggest win of the week."
"Not being able to play enough golf coming in here, was rolling the dice a little bit.… pic.twitter.com/LXYVVScb3W
— Paul Hodowanic (@PaulHodowanic) March 9, 2025
No. 5 - Ludvig Aberg
- Finished in eighth place last year in his first appearance at The PLAYERS, gaining +12.3 strokes on the field that week.
- Third overall in scoring average on hard courses. Aberg is an excellent scorer on par threes and a highly proficient long-iron player.
- Won two starts ago at The Genesis Invitational on the West Coast, now comes back to Ponte Vedra Beach where Aberg lives and practices most of the year.
No. 4 - Justin Thomas
- I'm getting tired of saying it, but I know a win is coming for Justin Thomas. He won The PLAYERS in 2021, a few years ago.
- No. 1-ranked player in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. Thomas also leads in bogey avoidance.
- He's been excellent at controlling his spin and ball flight with his wedges. TPC Sawgrass will allow him to showcase those skills more than any other.
Justin Thomas gets straight to work on Moving Day. 🎯👀
📺 Golf Channel | @APInv pic.twitter.com/xUlyqLyH2D
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 8, 2025
No. 3 - Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have held the one and two spots in my Power Rankings when playing for a long time, but not this week for McIlroy, who checks in at No. 3. I'll start by highlighting some of the concerns I have, but I fully understand that when McIlroy gets it right, his A-game is nearly unbeatable and best in the world.
McIlroy ranks 125th in the field in Driving Accuracy and 114th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway. He's not only missing the short game, but he's also missing them by a wide margin. That spells struggle at TPC Sawgrass with the magnitude of water on the course. He's also bleeding strokes on Approach, losing to the field over his last six starts.
That all said, McIlroy was purely dominant here in 2019 at TPC Sawgrass when he was able to hold onto a lead and win the tournament at -16 under par. He can separate from the field on the par fives, assuming he can find the fairway, because of his ability to hit it high and soft with his long irons. It can always be Rory's week, but he'll have to buck the trends to get it done this year.
No. 2 - Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa narrowly missed my betting card for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but boy do I wish he was on there. His ball striking has been exceptional all week at Bay Hill, and he looks primed to find himself a winner once again at the King's Tournament (*writing this before the conclusion of API).
He is so trustworthy in the wedge range. Morikawa doesn't beat himself and works well with his caddie to make smart decisions on the golf course. What has held him back has always been the putter, which goes cold at times.
TPC Sawgrass, at roughly 7,250 yards, is the big-time event where Morikawa isn't at a disadvantage being shorter than most other players. This course demands accuracy and Morikawa has it. He checks all the boxes, and if he can hold onto his lead at Bay Hill, it wouldn't surprise me to see him go back-to-back.
Collin Morikawa post-round:
"It's been awhile since I've hit my irons like this, it honestly has. Just start line, amount of cut, we're looking all the way back to 2021, essentially."
— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) March 8, 2025
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
He is still the man to beat on the PGA Tour. That said, the gap between Scottie Scheffler and the rest of the field is starting to narrow. Since returning from the hand injury, he just hasn't showcased the easy-flowing game that carried him to having one of the best seasons in PGA Tour history last year.
Scheffler is so precise from 50-150 yards. He ranks No. 1 in the field in that range and he always seems to leave himself 15-20 feet from the hole on the proper side. He's so strategically sound and is the top-ranked player in the field on Pete Dye-designed golf courses.
Scheffler is going for three in a row this week at TPC Sawgrass, which is nearly unfathomable given the inherent variance that this tournament breeds year over year. We are eagerly awaiting his best performance in 2025. If he brings it to Ponte Vedra, he'll earn the three-peat!
Enjoy The PLAYERS, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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