RADIO
The Oakland Athletics finished 2019 with a record of 97-65, which was good for a second-place finish in the AL West and a second-consecutive wildcard birth. They did this despite a statistically down season from their superstar, Khris Davis.
Davis struggled mightily in 2019 by slashing .220/.293/.387 with 23 HR, 73 RBI, 61 R, and 47 BB in 481 at-bats. He put up career-lows in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. The 23 home runs were especially troubling as this was his lowest total since his first full season in the big leagues in 2014.
Now, you may be asking why Davis should be a sleeper candidate heading into 2020 and that is justified. Some folks define sleeper as a more unknown player, and Davis is not that. He is most definitely undervalued in 2020 though, and that is what we will show here.
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An Injured 2019
The nagging hip injury Davis had in 2019 significantly impacted his performance. The injury began bothering him in mid-May and his performance dropped off significantly from that point. This is noted by the 10 home runs he hit between March and April followed by 13 total the rest of the season.
He also only managed to hit .207 from June until the end of the season after having hit .247 (he hit .247 every single season from 2015-2018) from March-May. Based on this information, gauging Davis on his 2019 performance is probably not the best predictor for determining how he will perform in 2020. His advanced metrics from seasons before the hip injury should be examined.
A Rebound Instore?
Khris Davis has several positives heading into 2020, the first of which is his health. By all accounts, Davis is feeling much healthier headed into camp for the start of 2020. Given this information, it is more than plausible we could see him return to the form we witnessed for the previous three seasons in Oakland when he was an absolute monster at the plate.
From 2016-2018, Davis averaged 44 HR, 112, RBI, 91 R, and 58 BB. These numbers are incredibly strong and something you would expect to see out of a third or fourth-round pick. He also averaged a ridiculous 17.2% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of 92.1 mph. Each of these ranked in the top five percent of the league. In 2018 alone, Davis ranked in the top five percent of the league in terms of home runs, RBI, SLG, and OPS. He also put up a solid .567 xSLG, and .376 xWOBA in 2018. It should be noted that he was also in the top five percent for strikeouts in 2018, but this can easily be forgiven considering his robust power numbers and modest career walk rate of 9.2%.
Davis is projected to hit sixth in the Oakland lineup between Mark Canha and Stephen Piscotty. This is a team that scored 845 runs in 2019, which was good for eighth-best in the league. They also had an on-base percentage of .327, which ranked 11th in the league. This means that Davis should have ample opportunity to drive runs in from that six-hole.
Conclusion
Overall, Khris Davis is a strong rebound candidate headed into 2020. He was a perennial power hitter who averaged over 40 home runs and 100 RBI prior to his hip injury in 2019. He currently has an ADP of 162, which means he is being taken in the middle of round 13 in most 12-team mixed leagues. This is a solid value for a player that finished 2018 ranked in the top 40 in terms of average stats and top 25 in terms of total stats.
Keep in mind, however, that he is likely limited to the utility spot in a majority of formats and is not going to gain further position eligibility during the season. If not for his lack of flexibility, he could easily go a round or two earlier than his current ADP. Therefore, if this is not a factor in your decision making, feel free to take him sooner as long as he has no setbacks with his health in camp this spring.
