2020 Offseason Outfield Rankings (Part 2) - Fantasy Baseball Mixed Leagues

It's never too early to start looking ahead to the next baseball season, so here we deliver our 2020 fantasy baseball rankings to those of you looking to scratch your fantasy itch. Whether you're already eliminated from fantasy football contention, or you're getting a head start on next year's keeper selections, RotoBaller has got you covered. We've assembled a collection of stout minds, including the #1 ranked expert from 2018, Nick Mariano, to help you get a jump start on your competition for the upcoming season.

With the Winter Meetings approaching and free-agency starting to materialize, there will be plenty of movement with these rankings before the draft season gets into full swing. Be sure to check in frequently during the offseason as we'll have updated rankings as soon as big names begin to change places.

Today, we'll analyze the lower tiers of the outfield position. You can check out part one of our outfield rankings and analysis for tiers 1-5 as well. This position offers some of the deepest upside around, with nearly 150 players ranked here in all. Whether your thing is rebounding veterans, hot rookies or undervalued category specialists, there's a player for you at every turn. Imagination can run wild in December, so let's check out the latest analysis of our 2020 rankings.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

Outfield Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (December)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season.

Rank	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Nick G	Riley
1	1	Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF	2	1	1
2	1	Mike Trout	OF	1	3	2
3	1	Christian Yelich	OF	3	2	3
4	1	Mookie Betts	OF	4	4	6
5	1	Cody Bellinger	1B/OF	5	6	4
6	2	Juan Soto	OF	13	12	13
7	2	J.D. Martinez	OF	21	22	16
8	2	Bryce Harper	OF	18	20	26
9	2	Aaron Judge	OF	19	29	21
10	3	Charlie Blackmon	OF	32	23	27
11	3	Starling Marte	OF	22	28	35
12	3	Yordan Alvarez	OF	36	37	25
13	3	George Springer	OF	35	34	30
14	3	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	41	44	47
15	3	Whit Merrifield	2B/OF	42	43	55
16	3	Kris Bryant	3B/OF	48	47	48
17	4	Ketel Marte	2B/SS/OF	52	56	40
18	4	Joey Gallo	OF	49	54	53
19	4	Austin Meadows	OF	60	50	63
20	4	Eddie Rosario	OF	67	55	56
21	4	Eloy Jimenez	OF	54	52	81
22	5	Jorge Soler	OF	85	81	85
23	5	Michael Brantley	OF	88	90	76
24	5	Michael Conforto	OF	87	98	71
25	5	Tommy Pham	OF	77	84	105
26	5	Marcell Ozuna	OF	98	86	93
27	5	Nicholas Castellanos	OF	92	105	84
28	5	Victor Robles	OF	100	66	125
29	5	Andrew Benintendi	OF	96	87	111
30	5	Trey Mancini	1B/OF	103	109	101
31	5	Max Kepler	OF	120	89	106
32	5	Jeff McNeil	2B/3B/OF	115	93	113
33	5	Yasiel Puig	OF	93	107	124
34	5	Ramon Laureano	OF	104	122	109
35	6	Danny Santana	1B/2B/3B/SS/OF	113	113	161
36	6	Mitch Haniger	OF	143	139	108
37	6	Kyle Tucker	OF	99	115	181
38	6	Oscar Mercado	OF	135	141	128
39	6	Aristides Aquino	OF	146	158	117
40	6	Kyle Schwarber	OF	149	129	149
41	6	Franmil Reyes	OF	140	137	152
42	6	Luis Robert	OF	114	120	200
43	6	Willie Calhoun	OF	174	135	126
44	6	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	2B/OF	170	127	141
45	6	Khris Davis	OF	109	151	182
46	7	Andrew McCutchen	OF	151	#N/A	153
47	7	David Dahl	OF	153	179	142
48	7	Hunter Dozier	1B/3B/OF	164	166	154
49	7	Lorenzo Cain	OF	182	148	155
50	7	Justin Upton	OF	160	177	151
51	7	Byron Buxton	OF	180	156	180
52	7	Joc Pederson	1B/OF	186	161	172
53	7	Nick Senzel	OF	156	168	209
54	7	Mallex Smith	OF	148	183	208
55	7	Garrett Hampson	2B/SS/OF	197	186	171
56	7	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	202	169	216
57	7	Ryan Braun	OF	203	174	220
58	8	Bryan Reynolds	OF	234	150	238
59	8	J.D. Davis	3B/OF	198	228	203
60	8	Tommy Edman	2B/3B/OF	181	245	205
61	8	Domingo Santana	OF	220	222	193
62	8	Mike Yastrzemski	OF	216	207	215
63	8	Adam Eaton	OF	194	192	277
64	8	Jo Adell	OF	225	185	257
65	8	A.J. Pollock	OF	212	210	248
66	8	Scott Kingery	SS/3B/OF	224	214	236
67	8	Brett Gardner	OF	215	205	266
68	8	Hunter Renfroe	OF	238	265	192
69	8	Avisail Garcia	OF	242	220	234
70	8	Jon Berti	2B/3B/SS/OF	227	#N/A	245
71	9	Randal Grichuk	OF	250	281	191
72	9	Trent Grisham	OF	244	237	244
73	9	Ian Desmond	OF	218	263	267
74	9	Hunter Pence	OF	209	215	325
75	9	Jose Martinez	OF	267	253	233
76	9	Kyle Lewis	OF	273	225	273
77	9	Kevin Pillar	OF	279	248	246
78	9	David Peralta	OF	313	261	211
79	9	Leury Garcia	SS/OF	261	244	293
80	9	Austin Riley	OF	315	#N/A	218
81	9	Brian Anderson	3B/OF	271	259	288
82	9	Stephen Piscotty	OF	248	255	316
83	9	Alex Verdugo	OF	363	#N/A	187
84	10	Wil Myers	1B/OF	222	258	357
85	10	Jesse Winker	OF	286	#N/A	276
86	10	Corey Dickerson	OF	270	268	306
87	10	Gregory Polanco	OF	280	287	#N/A
88	10	Raimel Tapia	OF	284	#N/A	#N/A
89	10	Anthony Santander	OF	289	#N/A	280
90	10	Alex Dickerson	OF	266	251	349
91	10	Kole Calhoun	OF	321	270	307
92	10	Eric Thames	1B/OF	359	#N/A	241
93	10	Nomar Mazara	OF	344	295	274
94	10	Alex Gordon	OF	264	272	380
95	10	Ian Happ	2B/3B/OF	306	#N/A	#N/A
96	10	Manuel Margot	OF	291	274	354
97	11	Jurickson Profar	2B/OF	309	#N/A	#N/A
98	11	Brandon Nimmo	OF	416	209	#N/A
99	11	Nick Markakis	OF	314	#N/A	#N/A
100	11	Clint Frazier	OF	305	#N/A	326
101	11	Austin Hays	OF	316	#N/A	#N/A
102	11	Jason Heyward	OF	336	#N/A	317
103	11	Steven Souza Jr.	OF	341	#N/A	#N/A
104	11	Matt Beaty	1B/3B/OF	342	#N/A	#N/A
105	11	Tyler O'Neill	OF	348	#N/A	#N/A
106	11	Kevin Kiermaier	OF	378	#N/A	319
107	11	Jackie Bradley Jr.	OF	339	#N/A	362
108	11	Brandon Belt	1B/OF	351	#N/A	#N/A
109	11	Teoscar Hernandez	OF	408	#N/A	301
110	11	Josh VanMeter	1B/2B/OF	366	#N/A	345
111	11	Dylan Carlson	OF	364	#N/A	#N/A
112	12	Mike Tauchman	OF	404	#N/A	359
113	12	Marwin Gonzalez	1B/3B/OF	382	#N/A	#N/A
114	12	Josh Reddick	OF	386	#N/A	#N/A
115	12	Adam Jones	OF	419	#N/A	355
116	12	Sam Hilliard	OF	388	#N/A	#N/A
117	12	Yoshitomo Tsutsugo	OF	450	#N/A	334
118	12	Josh Rojas	2B/3B/OF	394	#N/A	#N/A
119	12	Harrison Bader	OF	395	#N/A	#N/A
120	12	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	396	#N/A	#N/A
121	12	Josh Naylor	OF	397	#N/A	#N/A
122	13	Harold Ramirez	OF	414	#N/A	#N/A
123	13	Jarrod Dyson	OF	532	#N/A	297
124	13	Ender Inciarte	OF	417	#N/A	#N/A
125	13	Shogo Akiyama	OF	475	#N/A	365
126	13	Cameron Maybin	OF	422	#N/A	#N/A
127	13	Alex Kirilloff	OF	426	#N/A	#N/A
128	13	Dwight Smith Jr.	OF	431	#N/A	#N/A
129	13	Derek Fisher	OF	432	#N/A	#N/A
130	13	Aaron Hicks	OF	528	#N/A	339
131	13	Drew Waters	OF	442	#N/A	#N/A
132	13	Travis Demeritte	OF	446	#N/A	#N/A
133	13	Delino DeShields	OF	448	#N/A	#N/A
134	13	Bradley Zimmer	OF	451	#N/A	#N/A
135	13	Adam Duvall	OF	527	#N/A	377
136	13	Greg Allen	OF	462	#N/A	#N/A
137	13	Nick Martini	OF	465	#N/A	#N/A
138	13	Christian Pache	OF	469	#N/A	#N/A
139	13	Brian Goodwin	OF	474	#N/A	#N/A
140	13	Victor Reyes	OF	479	#N/A	#N/A
141	13	Dexter Fowler	OF	488	#N/A	#N/A
142	13	Brandon Dixon	1B/OF	497	#N/A	#N/A
143	13	Randy Arozarena	OF	501	#N/A	#N/A
144	13	Odubel Herrera	OF	512	#N/A	#N/A
145	13	Roman Quinn	OF	523	#N/A	#N/A
146	13	Gerardo Parra	OF	524	#N/A	#N/A
147	13	Christin Stewart	OF	526	#N/A	#N/A
148	13	Phillip Ervin	OF	531	#N/A	#N/A

 

Tier Six

Be sure to also read part one of our outfield rankings analysis, tiers 1-5.

You’ll notice a gap in our composite ranks that facilitates a tier dropoff, but if your first OF is someone from this group then you’re far from sunk. The last name of the cohort is none other than Khris Davis, who is one wrist injury-laden year away from being a league-leading slugger. He collided with the wall on May 5 and eventually made his way to the 10-day IL on May 22. 

Guess what Davis was hitting prior to the IL stint? Yes, it was .247 over 174 PAs. His .247/.316/.494 slash with 12 homers in 43 games roughly projects to a 42-homer season, but he’d hit just .207 with 11 homers over 90 games upon returning. I have him ranked 109, with Nick G at 151 and Riley at 182. I understand the trepidation, but he’s on the table early for me.

Danny Santana epitomizes the fears over 2019’s juicy ball propelling previous unknowns into the spotlight. Both us Nicks have him at 113 while Riley is out at 161. At age-28, Santana exploded for an 81-28-81-21-.283 line in just 511 plate appearances (130 games) after hitting just 13 homers in 364 previous games. His 29.5% strikeout rate underscores the swing hard, miss hard approach that was rewarded in ‘19, but it’s worth noting he popped 16 homers with 12 steals in 82 Triple-A games in 2018 for Atlanta. I’m buying the power-speed tools in Arlington, while expecting the average to step back towards the .250-.260 range.

You’ll also find a quintet of youngsters, with Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert offering legitimate five-category superstardom should they get everyday jobs. Tucker smashed 34 homers with 30 steals in 536 PAs at Triple-A in ‘19 before contributing four homers and five swipes in 72 PAs for Houston. George Springer and Michael Brantley will play while Yordan Alvarez occupies the DH slot, leaving Tucker splitting time with Josh Reddick pending injuries. My money’s on Tucker’s talent. His tools are exceeded by few, one of whom being the 22-year-old Robert. His obstacle with PT is team control, but even 120 games would yield a 20/20/.270 season per Steamer projections.

Oscar Mercado is more average and speed, while Willie Calhoun and Aristides Aquino bring power. Calhoun has the pedigree, whereas Aquino swatted 20 homers in 114 Double-A games in ‘18, before clubbing 28 HRs in just 78 Triple-A games and 19 more in 56 MLB contests in ‘19. Hitting 47 combined HRs in just 548 PAs with a near 30% HR/FB rate is remarkable, and projecting 35 HRs in ‘20 with modest adjustments yields profit.

 

Tier Seven

I’ll bet I could drop Lorenzo Cain another 30 slots without much thought -- I have him at 182 while Nick G (148) and Riley (155) are more optimistic. He turns 34 in April and dropped from 30 steals in 2018 to 18 last season. His 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed ranked 100th out of 292 (min. 100 opportunities), dropping nearly a foot from 2018’s 28.6 ft/sec mark that ranked 44th of 289. Age doesn’t tend to add speed, so even if his average rebounds to the .300 range then a 80-10-45-15-.290 season is reasonable. Consider me underwhelmed.

The rebound candidate I’d want is Justin Upton, who enters his 12th MLB season at 32 years old. We all have him between 151-177, making him viable from the 13th round on in 12-teamers. Upton was hindered by knee and toe injuries from Spring Training on, yet still mustered 12 homers in 256 PAs for a full-season pace of ~30. The horrid .215 average sank his value though, as a career-low .261 BABIP was 40 points below any previous mark. With no monumental leap in fly balls, I’m willing to buy the bounceback.

Byron Buxton continues to fight through injuries to flash upside, but the durability means you cannot pencil him in as a starter. Ditto, David Dahl. Garrett Hampson would rise if we could trust Colorado to give him playing time, but they continue to ruin development with confounding veteran commitments #FireBridich.

 

Tier Eight

The question marks start to pile up here, but you can still find talented prospects such as Jo Adell or Kyle Lewis, upcoming talents with playing-time concerns in J.D. Davis and Tommy Edman, as well as veterans in Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to learn that Davis and Edman are the most valuable of the bunch come 2021.

Davis could challenge for the N.L. batting title after hitting .339 with 13 homers in 214 PAs after being given everyday left-field duties in late July. Can you trust the Mets to give him a full spot with full health to all? Even Yoenis Cespedes’ presence could muddy the DH-less waters here. I know “full health” and the Mets doesn’t mix well, but I can’t project the Grim Reaper to come like that every year -- you have to bake it in.

My favorite is Edman, who came up with little fanfare in June as bench depth. I’ve got him at 181 and that may be too low -- Riley checks in at 205 and Nick G at 245. He would step into third base with Matt Carpenter struggling and hit .304 with 11 homers and 15 steals in 349 PAs. 

The power showed up in 2019, shocking, but he’d hit .301 with seven homers and 30 steals between Double- and Triple-A in 2018. He can play second, third and the outfield, which should yield ample PT in ‘20 for double-digit homers with 20+ steals and an average around .300.

We wrap up with Jon Berti, who was in Toronto’s farm from 2011-18 and flashed 50-steal speed back in 2013, but didn’t get an earnest crack in the Majors until 2019 with Miami. In 287 PAs, nearly half a season, Berti scored 52 runs with six homers, 17 steals and a .273 average. A full line of 100-12-50-35-.270 is worth plenty -- certainly a late-round flyer.

 

Tier Nine

Here is where ranking, and drafting, attitudes can truly diverge. I try to blend rankings how I believe the players will finish with the timing on when you should be taking them. Others weigh these differently. You will see plenty of “boring vets” here, but they likely have playing time to accumulate their way to value. You will find some specialists here, but I’d skip ahead and let others nibble away at this group. Trent Grisham could be exciting given that the Padres likely didn't deal for him just for the bench, but that's still quite the crowd.

On the other side of the coin, Riley has Alex Verdugo and Randal Grichuk within his top-200 still, as well as having David Peralta and Austin Riley roughly 100 spots higher than me. Verdugo has 20-homer pop with a .300 average, but the Dodgers’ depth is so loaded that you’ll need platoonmates. Meanwhile, Grichuk finally eclipsed 150 games played in his sixth season and crushed 31 homers for his efforts. That’s worth drafting even in today’s power-happy environment, especially if you target speed or average early.

As for the big gaps, Riley clearly sides with the Peralta that swatted 30 homers alongside a .293 average in 2018. The 32-year-old also hit around 15 homers with eight steals and an average hugging .300 in ‘15 and ‘17, but injuries have zapped his ‘16 and ‘19 seasons. His being on the other side of the aging curve leaves me pessimistic, but I get the appeal.

Then there’s Austin Riley, who destroyed MLB pitchers upon his promotion on May 15 before fizzling out. He had five homers in his first nine games and nine round-trippers in his first 18 games, but a strikeout rate above 30% portended dark days. Soon the torrid HR pace cooled but the K’s kept coming, relegating him to platoon duties. An impressive overall picture for a 22-year-old rookie, but I presume the Braves sign Josh Donaldson or another 3B to push Riley back into the OF rotation.

 

Tier 10

Here you’ll find last year’s sleeper darling in Jesse Winker, as well as once-heralded dual-threat Wil Myers, who I have 135 slots higher than Riley. Even in a terrible year with a 34.3% strikeout rate, Myers mustered 18 homers and 16 steals. Oft-injured at 29 years old, Eric Hosmer blocks him from staying safe at first -- where he was throughout his amazing 2016 and ‘17 campaigns.

I’ll take this chance to point out two players that only I ranked in Raimel Tapia and Ian Happ. The first is Tapia, who has the skills to hit .300 with double-digit homers and steals (with some Coors love) but is unlikely to get the playing time. Charlie Blackmon is a staple, David Dahl is injury-prone, and then Ian Desmond, Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard and Tapia can fill in. If injuries strike, then I’d love to have Tapia stashed away.

Can I prepay on Ian Happ picks now? He required more development in 2019 and didn’t see the bigs until late July, only to receive inconsistent looks off the bench. Then he cracks a pinch-hit homer on Sept. 21 and receives seven starts in the final week of the regular season, resulting in three doubles, four homers, 16 R+RBI and NL Player of the Week honors. Happ could wrest centerfield from Albert Almora Jr. and slide into second with David Bote, let alone covering third should Kris Bryant’s shoulder bark. Buy the talent.

 

Tier 11

At the time of publication, Clint Frazier may have found his way into New York’s lineup with Aaron Hicks out and Brett Gardner yet to sign, but that dream is no more. He'll tumble in my updated ranks down the road. I appreciate Mike Tauchman’s talents but Frazier is 25 and has made his frustrations with playing time known. I wager he’ll either be dealt for pitching or looking to build on cracking 12 homers in 246 PAs for the Yanks last season. These late rounds are about upside, and a piece of the Yankees lineup does offer a high one, but the hurdles appear too plentiful here.

Baltimore's Austin Hays crushed 33 homers across 148 games (three levels) in 2017, reaching the Majors in September at 21 years old. He would require surgery for an ankle injury in 2018 and suffered a thumb sprain in 2019, both of which slowed his momentum. The rookie is currently slated for everyday centerfielder duties in Baltimore and could provide 25-30 homer pop on a rebuilding Orioles team.

 

Tiers 12-13

There’s no shame in digging through the bottom of the pile and trying to unearth some gold flecks. Perhaps Tyler O’Neill gets PT and delivers on his 30-homer potential. It could be Harrison Bader’s speed tools instead, who I definitely have too low. Does Yoenis Cespedes return to form? Maybe the Yankees go with Mike Tauchman instead of Frazier should injuries befall the names ahead of them?

Stashing youngin’s like Sam Hilliard, Drew Waters, Alex Kiriloff and Christian Pache would pass in later leagues as well. And you can still find playing time upside with Derek Fisher, an AL-only favorite of mine. His lousy .191 career average over 419 MLB PAs is deplorable, but Toronto’s rebuilding and he hit seven homers with five steals in 167 PAs last year. Give him roughly 500 PAs and that’s a 20/15 season, which doesn’t grow on any tree I’ve seen.

You’ll also find Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama here, two NPB hitters that offer some fantasy-relevant upside. Tsutsugo has more relevance as a power lefty who has already signed to Tampa Bay (though he was unsigned at the time we put the ranks in) while Akiyama’s on-base prowess would likely be his best offensive tool. Tsutsugo's defense is limited, but perhaps the Rays can shield him from a ton of defensive action at DH. Akiyama likely slides in as a corner outfielder and would be a modestly-priced player for a team like Cincinnati or San Francisco to jump on. Update: Akiyama signed with Cincinnati, perhaps pushing Jesse Winker's playing time further down. It also provides insurance against the development of Aquino and Senzel. That said, he's not a fantasy factor to target here.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice