2019 Starting Pitcher - Early Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings

We continue our fantasy baseball tiered rankings analysis with the second base position. The sun is still rising on 2019, but RotoBaller writers JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Chris Zolli and myself are here with our initial pre-draft rankings to give you a sense of player values as early as possible. As the offseason progresses, these rankings are sure to change quite a bit over the coming weeks. We'll be updating our rankings regularly, so be sure to keep checking in on our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the most updated lists.

First, you'll find a table with our ranks of over 200 arms, followed by tier-by-tier analysis from yours truly. Starting pitching runs deep, but you’ll need one or two aces to anchor your staff in this era of fewer arms hitting 200 innings and qualifying for wins, let alone quality starts. Buckle up, there’s a lot to discuss -- you’ll find over 3,000 words of analysis here.

In case you missed it, you can also read about our shortstop, second base, first base and catcher ranks. Without any more delay, let's take a peek at the 2019 starting pitcher rankings for January.

 

2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher (January)

Rank	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Pierre	JB	Chris
1	1	Max Scherzer	SP	9	12	14	8
2	1	Chris Sale	SP	13	11	13	11
3	1	Corey Kluber	SP	20	15	21	14
4	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	14	22	15	27
5	2	Aaron Nola	SP	22	34	22	24
6	2	Clayton Kershaw	SP	28	28	29	22
7	2	Gerrit Cole	SP	27	25	28	30
8	2	Justin Verlander	SP	21	36	27	38
9	2	Blake Snell	SP	34	40	23	29
10	2	Noah Syndergaard	SP	44	33	43	33
11	2	Luis Severino	SP	40	31	45	43
12	2	Trevor Bauer	SP	36	53	34	48
13	2	Carlos Carrasco	SP	41	49	47	50
14	3	Walker Buehler	SP	56	56	42	63
15	3	Stephen Strasburg	SP	61	46	54	57
16	3	Zack Greinke	SP	64	48	55	69
17	3	James Paxton	SP	54	72	59	52
18	3	Michael Clevinger	SP	60	63	58	74
19	4	Jack Flaherty	SP	97	77	77	64
20	4	Jose Berrios	SP	98	57	76	89
21	4	Patrick Corbin	SP	55	115	52	101
22	4	Michael Foltynewicz	SP	83	66	91	87
23	4	Jameson Taillon	SP	74	84	78	103
24	4	Miles Mikolas	SP	80	60	102	109
25	4	David Price	SP	73	94	81	105
26	4	Madison Bumgarner	SP	134	71	86	77
27	4	German Marquez	SP	70	113	95	106
28	4	Zack Wheeler	SP	75	128	87	112
29	4	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	77	85	135	110
30	5	Luis Castillo	SP	124	104	162	126
31	5	Charlie Morton	SP	159	135	101	123
32	5	Robbie Ray	SP	145	97	146	140
33	5	Carlos Martinez	SP	146	114	132	139
34	5	J.A. Happ	SP	108	139	139	146
35	5	Kyle Hendricks	SP	129	131	153	132
36	5	Kyle Freeland	SP	125	182	128	114
37	5	Nick Pivetta	SP	148	102	163	147
38	5	Yu Darvish	SP	141	111	156	162
39	5	Chris Archer	SP	160	118	148	149
40	5	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	165	138	159	151
41	6	Jonathan Gray	SP	164	130	180	174
42	6	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	151	183	150	167
43	6	Cole Hamels	SP	168	121	223	158
44	6	Rich Hill	SP	154	151	189	187
45	6	Rick Porcello	SP	191	169	154	169
46	6	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	171	144	226	177
47	6	Jose Quintana	SP	183	148	204	193
48	6	Shane Bieber	SP	228	143	191	170
49	6	Ross Stripling	SP	132	214	199	192
50	6	Dallas Keuchel	SP	207	171	176	186
51	6	Jon Lester	SP	153	161	202	253
52	6	Sean Newcomb	SP	255	142	197	180
53	6	Josh James	SP	187	208	182	199
54	6	Tyler Glasnow	SP	184	196	206	191
55	6	Andrew Heaney	SP	225	192	194	173
56	7	Alex Wood	SP	237	189	184	207
57	7	Zack Godley	SP	239	132	224	230
58	7	Kevin Gausman	SP	226	126	244	246
59	7	Kenta Maeda	SP	210	149	245	238
60	7	Alexander Reyes	SP/RP	208	227	236	172
61	7	Jake Arrieta	SP	247	159	232	208
62	7	Tyler Skaggs	SP	182	191	247	257
63	7	Joey Lucchesi	SP	263	134	253	299
64	7	Michael Fulmer	SP	221	224	242	269
65	7	Steven Matz	SP	299	167	271	261
66	7	Mike Soroka	SP	236	223	281	287
67	8	Dereck Rodriguez	SP	241	286	250	251
68	8	Jimmy Nelson	SP	291	269	282	231
69	8	Carlos Rodon	SP	282	270	284	250
70	8	Trevor Williams	SP	292	294	269	233
71	8	Joe Musgrove	SP	266	321	266	252
72	8	Matt Boyd	SP	250	306	262	290
73	8	Freddy Peralta	SP	310	202	325	281
74	8	Chase Anderson	SP	227	265	290	356
75	8	Dylan Bundy	SP	343	231	307	276
76	8	Marco Gonzales	SP	317	302	274	267
77	8	Marcus Stroman	SP	362	178	328	300
78	9	Julio Urias	SP	288	234	288	369
79	9	Jesus Luzardo	SP	313	261	280	333
80	9	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	280	285	401	227
81	9	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	300	276	416	218
82	9	Jhoulys Chacin	SP	259	414	326	219
83	9	Kyle Gibson	SP	281	312	332	297
84	9	Luke Weaver	SP	358	155	434	310
85	9	Michael Wacha	SP	384	239	388	256
86	9	Vincent Velasquez	SP	341	220	294	419
87	10	Julio Teheran	SP	385	240	297	378
88	10	Danny Duffy	SP	359	243	364	338
89	10	Jeff Samardzija	SP	368	248	365	346
90	10	Tanner Roark	SP	401	256	311	402
91	10	Collin McHugh	SP	169	476	272	457
92	10	Dinelson Lamet	SP	321	244	366	448
93	10	Lance Lynn	SP	396	253	327	412
94	10	Anibal Sanchez	SP	283	381	417	315
95	10	Jake Odorizzi	SP	412	331	347	322
96	10	Mike Minor	SP	289	420	275	430
97	10	Jake Junis	SP	402	273	316	426
98	10	Touki Toussaint	SP	348	385	412	285
99	10	Danny Salazar	SP	414	308	397	340
100	11	Taijuan Walker	SP	453	264	390	359
101	11	Forrest Whitley	SP	331	378	363	396
102	11	Gio Gonzalez	SP	444	263	394	376
103	11	Lucas Giolito	SP	369	278	450	386
104	11	Jordan Montgomery	SP	410	309	368	399
105	11	Brent Honeywell	SP	451	376	318	349
106	11	Zach Eflin	SP	452	#N/A	354	317
107	11	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	449	465	304	305
108	11	Framber Valdez	SP	383	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
109	11	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	307	426	317	483
110	11	Jose Urena	SP	370	454	315	398
111	11	Mike Fiers	SP	365	451	438	304
112	11	CC Sabathia	SP	308	480	337	434
113	11	Sonny Gray	SP	363	432	436	329
114	11	Trevor Cahill	SP	386	356	437	388
115	11	Sandy Alcantara	SP	361	450	289	471
116	11	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	395	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
117	11	Wily Peralta	SP/RP	429	498	338	319
118	11	Alex Cobb	SP	431	330	414	423
119	12	Brad Keller	SP/RP	360	485	320	467
120	12	Luiz Gohara	SP	475	334	431	393
121	12	Wade Miley	SP	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	413
122	12	Aaron Sanchez	SP	577	325	410	344
123	12	Tyler Anderson	SP	434	428	389	420
124	12	Trevor Richards	SP	371	437	358	512
125	12	Caleb Smith	SP	373	491	349	473
126	12	Michael Pineda	SP	485	413	361	438
127	12	Jacob Faria	SP	614	236	484	365
128	12	Wade LeBlanc	RP/SP	442	#N/A	408	#N/A
129	12	Ivan Nova	SP	408	463	403	435
130	12	Chris Devenski	SP/RP	448	467	335	477
131	12	Derek Holland	SP	298	520	448	463
132	12	Jeremy Hellickson	SP	415	#N/A	517	366
133	12	A.J. Puk	SP	519	320	#N/A	462
134	12	Drew Pomeranz	SP	#N/A	#N/A	470	411
135	12	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	380	#N/A	399	549
136	12	Felix Hernandez	SP	432	384	451	517
137	13	Mike Leake	SP	459	469	452	415
138	13	Tyler Chatwood	SP	#N/A	#N/A	464	445
139	13	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	496	509	413	425
140	13	Dan Straily	SP	445	479	#N/A	#N/A
141	13	Wei-Yin Chen	SP	388	474	507	482
142	13	Marco Estrada	SP	586	326	485	459
143	13	Clay Buchholz	SP	404	#N/A	482	509
144	13	Brandon Woodruff	SP	387	488	509	481
145	13	Ervin Santana	SP	624	323	491	429
146	13	Matt Harvey	SP	484	504	#N/A	417
147	13	Matt Shoemaker	SP	466	470	516	424
148	13	Joe Ross	SP	481	568	353	480
149	13	Max Fried	SP	515	522	#N/A	391
150	13	Chris Stratton	SP	471	500	457	#N/A
151	13	Amir Garrett	SP	549	383	480	493
152	13	Pablo Lopez	SP	378	565	462	501
153	13	Nick Kingham	SP	439	496	463	520
154	13	Domingo German	SP	591	388	#N/A	461
155	13	Daniel Mengden	SP	534	455	#N/A	453
156	13	Robert Gsellman	SP/RP	509	443	458	523
157	13	Felix Pena	RP/SP	441	#N/A	492	521
158	13	Fernando Romero	SP	493	#N/A	478	#N/A
159	13	Tyson Ross	SP	558	484	#N/A	416
160	13	Adam Wainwright	SP	454	468	500	524
161	13	Jason Vargas	SP	417	566	499	502
162	14	Mitch Keller	SP	#N/A	460	#N/A	540
163	14	Jharel Cotton	SP	565	448	#N/A	#N/A
164	14	Adam Conley	SP/RP	483	569	#N/A	475
165	14	Justus Sheffield	SP	601	493	475	468
166	14	Zach Davies	SP	554	557	#N/A	427
167	14	Thomas Pannone	SP	516	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
168	14	Junior Guerra	SP	584	#N/A	#N/A	450
169	14	Dylan Floro	SP/RP	518	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
170	14	Matt Moore	SP	551	574	#N/A	432
171	14	Yonny Chirinos	SP	511	519	511	536
172	14	Mike Montgomery	SP/RP	531	525	#N/A	505
173	14	Steven Wright	SP	521	#N/A	512	541
174	14	Jerad Eickhoff	SP	525	521	515	543
175	14	Jaime Barria	SP	529	524	#N/A	#N/A
176	14	Brandon Finnegan	SP	535	527	#N/A	#N/A
177	14	Francis Martes	SP	581	563	#N/A	451
178	14	Daniel Norris	SP	546	535	#N/A	#N/A
179	14	Drew Smyly	SP	522	571	#N/A	#N/A
180	14	Andrew Suarez	SP	526	572	#N/A	#N/A
181	14	Dylan Covey	SP	574	537	#N/A	#N/A
182	14	Ian Kennedy	SP	539	573	#N/A	#N/A
183	14	Nick Tropeano	SP	575	541	#N/A	#N/A
184	14	Jonathan Loaisiga	SP	560	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
185	14	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	563	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
186	14	Tyler Mahle	SP	585	543	#N/A	#N/A
187	14	Hunter Greene	SP	#N/A	598	#N/A	534
188	14	Bartolo Colon	SP	566	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
189	14	John Gant	SP	582	560	#N/A	#N/A
190	14	Ryan Borucki	SP	573	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
191	14	Luis Perdomo	SP	608	548	#N/A	#N/A
192	14	J.C. Ramirez	SP	619	550	#N/A	#N/A
193	14	Andrew Triggs	SP	#N/A	585	#N/A	#N/A
194	14	Joe Biagini	SP/RP	596	576	#N/A	#N/A
195	14	Dillon Peters	SP	#N/A	586	#N/A	#N/A
196	14	Robert Stephenson	SP	606	577	#N/A	#N/A
197	14	Daniel Poncedeleon	SP	593	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
198	14	Brendan McKay	SP/1B	#N/A	596	#N/A	#N/A
199	14	Merrill Kelly	SP	597	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
200	14	MacKenzie Gore	SP	#N/A	599	#N/A	#N/A
201	14	Adalberto Mejia	SP	617	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
202	14	Sean Reid-Foley	SP	620	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
203	14	Brock Stewart	SP	627	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

I won’t waste your time splitting hairs at the top. You’re not questioning any of these arms leading your rotation. Corey Kluber will rise in my rankings as Opening Day nears and the possibility of his being traded wanes. I’d love him no matter where he went, but being on Cleveland and looking down at a rebuilding AL Central makes 20 wins a real possibility. Caesars recently released their 2019 MLB season win totals for prop bettors and Cleveland’s 91.5 mark makes them one of five teams checking in above 90. The Astros (97.5), Red Sox (95.5), Dodgers (95) and Yankees (94.5) being the others.

Tier Two

Aaron Nola breaking out in 2018 deserves extra props because he not only beat opponents, but he beat his own terrible defense. The same defense that hamstrung Philadelphia’s other young arms (that we’ll get to), so I’m a big Nola believer in ‘19 now that Jean Segura is at short and Rhys Hoskins is back at first and out of the outfield.

We must continue to respect what a healthy Clayton Kershaw can do, but he hasn’t topped 175 innings since 2015 and that’s baked into his draft stock. We’ll also need to see him regain the whiffs, as the 23.9% strikeout rate was the lowest he’s posted since his 2008 rookie campaign. From 2014-17, Kershaw put up swinging-strike rates north of 14%, but that fell to 11% in ‘18. The southpaw will be 31 and has to show he still belongs at the top of pitching boards -- I doubt I’ll have any shares in ‘19.

As you can see, I’m the high man on both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, as well as Carlos Carrasco and I’m second on Trevor Bauer. Targeting Houston’s spin-rate happy rotation is wise, as both Verlander and Cole were inside the top-five in K-BB rate. Verlander’s 30.4% made him the only starter with more than 50 innings to top 30% aside from Chris Sale (32.9%), while Cole checked into fifth place with 26.5%. Mix in that Houston wins a ton of ballgames and you’ve got a recipe for 5x5 fantasy glory here.

We talked about Cleveland’s envious position in their division and Bauer’s insanely-deep arsenal finally clicked in ‘18, but Carrasco continues to be overlooked despite turning in a career-best 231 strikeouts and 24% K-BB rate that yielded a 2.94 FIP, 2.90 xFIP and 3.03 SIERA -- his best peripherals since his 2015 breakout. You should be happy with him as your ace and thrilled if he’s your SP2.

Tier Three

While some folks will happily pay the October tax for Walker Buehler, but he’s being aggressively drafted -- too aggressive for me. His NFBC ADP sits at 38.58, making him the No. 12 SP, slightly ahead of Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard. A veteran like Zack Greinke is going 20-25 picks later and likely represents greater value. Count me as a believer in Bronx Big Maple, whose 25.7% K-BB rate was sixth on that list, though I’d be hopeful that he learns to attack up in the zone more to mitigate the 41.1% fly-ball rate and 1.29 HR/9, which could sting in Yankee Stadium. But you can count me out on Stephen Strasburg -- he's reached 175 innings once in the last four seasons and I'm concerned about his mechanics holding up at this point.

 

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

The fourth tier is a gorgeous one, housing 11 pitchers with 10 of them in my personal top 100 and eight of them in the composite top 100. It also brings up arms that have some wide ranges between us, as Patrick Corbin, Madison Bumgarner, Masahiro Tanaka and Zack Wheeler have min-max spreads near 60.

Let’s once again go to the K-BB% well with Corbin, whose 24.8% mark was seventh in the MLB (again, out of SP’s with >50 IP) with a 2.61 xFIP, which was third only to Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom. He now heads to the NL East in a Nationals uniform, meaning he’ll see less of Coors Field and more of the Marlins, so I have a hard time downgrading him.

I’m the clear outlier with Bumgarner, as he was showing warning signs heading into 2018 and subsequently crashed underneath the hood. His 3.26 ERA/1.24 WHIP offer encouragement, but his 4.32 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA highlight an ugly 19.8% strikeout rate -- his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2010 -- and his fantasy value only goes further south when you consider the rebuilding Giants have notched him 10 wins in his last two years (240 ⅔ IP). His 44.5% hard-hit rate in the second half was only “beaten” by Dan Straily (50.3%, yikes), which is terrifying for an arm who isn’t balancing hard contact with big whiffs. No thanks.

Tanaka falls on the other side of the wins equation with his pinstripes. He still offers roughly a strikeout per inning and that 14.1% swinging-strike rate underscores his dastardly splitter, while the lowly 5.5% walk rate shows that he still has stupendous control (which helped anchor the 1.13 WHIP). The Yankees signing of DJ LeMahieu should improve the defense behind him as he looks to conquer the longball.

Wheeler’s season-long line is strong on its own, with his 3.31 ERA/1.12 WHIP and 24.1% strikeout rate (179 in 182 ⅓ IP), but those who rostered him know that belittles his insane second half. Before being shut down due to an innings limit in mid-September, Wheeler posted an incredible 1.68 ERA with a 73:15 K:BB ratio and a cold .174/.237/.253 triple slash allowed in 75 frames. He started attacking the zone more and batters simply failed in response, earning the .229 BABIP with a 21.1% hard-hit rate that trailed only Syndergaard (20.8%) as his pop-up rate soared to 16.7% (fifth-best by an SP in the second half).

Tier Five

It’s clear that JB, Chris and I are in relative agreement on Robbie Ray, while Pierre is going to score his services on all of his teams. The 165 strikeouts in 123 ⅔ innings showed the swing-and-miss stuff is still extremely present, but the control woes manifested and then some in a 13.3% walk rate that paced all starters (>100 IP). To orient you, Francisco Liriano’s 12.5% was second. I respect those who believe in his finding the zone again, but I won’t bank on it. I’d prefer drafting Yu Darvish and hoping for good health rather than Ray manufacturing control.

I believe that the writer in rotation on these positions should address where they’re an outlier, so let’s talk about J.A. Happ. While his 3.65 ERA was his highest mark since ‘14, his 3.64 SIERA was the lowest of his career alongside a career-high 26.3% strikeout rate. He’s on a team that just won 100 games and has an elite bullpen, all of which make me bullish on Happ.

On the flipside is Charlie Morton, who leaves Houston having enhanced his fastball and embracing his curveball (especially using it to mitigate lefties) to become an alleged traditional starter for Tampa Bay. The Rays have tons of pitchers and no allegiance to an SP needing to go six innings, which hamstrings Morton’s potential wins but also could help keep him healthy. He’s dealt with injuries to his oblique, shoulder, hip, elbow and hamstring. Morton is young in terms of fantasy relevance, but you must remember that he’s 35 years old and the risk is real.

Tier Six

Let’s once again turn to the K-BB% leaderboard to explain why I have Ross Stripling the highest among this term and certainly among our staff. Stripling’s 23.5% was ninth, nestled between Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. The other 14 names within the top 15 in K-BB% are all being drafted inside the top-60 picks per NFBC ADP, whereas Stripling’s ADP is 215.84! His .324 BABIP was the highest among those 15 and the 2.86 xFIP sits in fourth place, so don’t tell me he just got lucky. I’m not asking you buy into him as a top-15 pitcher, but it’s silly to me that someone could flash those skills while pitching for a strong team in LA and be ignored.

Where one arm is raised, another falls. I promise I’m not just a sabermetrics slave, but Sean Newcomb does not strike me as a reliable pitcher. He enters his third big-league season having put up walk rates of 12.5% and 11.6%, but saw his swinging-strike rate fall to 10% from 11.1% as he struck out fewer than a batter per inning (160 in 164 IP). You simply cannot walk that many batters without generating a ton of outs that don’t go into play and potentially advance a runner (a la Robbie Ray) and expect to succeed. It’s not like he was losing batters that he’d gotten ahead of either, as his 54% first-strike rate was only “worsted” by Gio Gonzalez’s 53.8%.

Tier Seven

Everyone else is putting Alex Wood in/near their top 200, but I’m worried about his performance, durability and the new home. In order, his 3.72 xFIP and 3.90 SIERA were good-not-great as his swinging-strike rate lost a percentage point and his hard-hit rate jumped by over 10 percentage points. He only pitched 151 ⅔ innings in ‘18 and has averaged 121 innings over his last three seasons. Finally, Dodger Stadium was ranked 26th per ESPN Park Factors for offenses, whereas Great American Ball Park was tied for fourth.

I also feel that Jake Arrieta is getting by on some name brand, but he was fortunate to be decent in ‘17 and declined further in ‘18. While he regained a groundball rate north of 50%, his swinging-strike rate that once sat between 10.4-11.1% in 2014-16 fell to 7.8% in ‘18 after slipping to 8.7% in ‘17. He somehow posted an 8.71 K/9 and 23.1% strikeout rate in ‘17, but that plummeted to 7.19 and 19.1% last season while his 3.96 ERA held a 4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. You can blame some of the surface on Philly’s defense, but the sabers and lack of whiffs are on him.

 

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Eight

I see some sleeper articles propped up Trevor Williams thanks to his 3.11 ERA/1.18 WHIP 2018 season that ended with a 1.38 ERA through the second half. Even during that insane time, his 12.3% K-BB rate was just okay and a 90.8% strand rate (built on a low 0.38 HR/9 rate) hid a 4.19 xFIP. With no real strikeout upside to speak of and still needing to conquer lefties -- he only posted a 4.89 K/9 with a 4.40 FIP/5.16 xFIP against them -- I can think of better late-round fliers to take.

I need to examine Milwaukee’s pitchers more heading into 2019, but I’m fairly sure I’ve got Chase Anderson too high. I will say his 86.2 MPH average exit velocity ranked 23rd out of 169 pitchers with 250 batted-ball results in ‘18 and helps explain the lowly .239 BABIP, but a meager 9.2% whiff rate and the 1.71 HR/9 mark are to be feared. As for Freddy Peralta, his thrilling starts and 96 strikeouts in 78 ⅓ IP make for intrigue, but a 12.5% walk rate that’s backed up by a track record of poor control in the Minors means he needs to earn my trust.

Tier Nine

Only two pitchers are inside anyone’s top 200 in this tier, and they’re both Pierre’s. Mr. Camus has Marcus Stroman at 178 and Luke Weaver at 155. Stroman battled through finger issues and tons of bad luck to post a 5.54 ERA/1.48 WHIP despite a 3.91 FIP/3.84 xFIP/4.04 SIERA. Still, walks were up and whiffs were down, though he still posted a groundball rate above 60% -- his fourth straight season surpassing that mark. That said, he hasn’t posted a WHIP below 1.29 or a strikeout rate above 20% in three seasons, so count me out.

My bearishness on Weaver comes from the horrid 2018 with sabers around 4.50 and the 4.95 ERA with a K-BB% that nearly halved itself, from 21.8% in ‘17 to 11% in ‘18. Pierre must believe in the 2017 Weaver that looked so promising for St. Louis, and I’ll admit that the suddenly pitcher-friendly Chase Park is enticing, but I don’t see it under the hood. Even when he posted beautiful strikeout rates around 27-28% in ‘16 and ‘17, his swinging-strike rate never cracked 10%. The rule of thumb is to double SwStr% to get a ballpark K rate, meaning 2018’s 19.9% mark was close to expectations.

The Oakland A’s don’t have many pitchers locked into place for 2019, with Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton battling back from injuries, but if Jesus Lazardo makes a start then you need him on your squad. At 20 years old, Luzardo quickly went from High-A to Double-A and finished ‘18 at Triple-A with a picturesque 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 129-to-30 K:BB ratio in 109 ⅓ IP thanks to his fastball-curve-changeup arsenal. To be fair, he gave up 13 runs in his 16 Triple-A frames, but age-20 in the PCL with a silly .469 BABIP makes for easy forgiveness. If he carries over his 14% whiff rate from the Minors to O.co then he may just set our world on fire.

Tier 10

This tier has a clear standout for me, as Houston will reportedly shift Collin McHugh back into their rotation after a successful bullpen showing in ‘18. We’ve learned that the Astros are capable of essentially giving its pitcher a super-soldier serum and it isn’t like we didn’t see McHugh dominate already. Operating out of the bullpen, McHugh posted a 1.99 ERA (2.62 SIERA) and 0.91 WHIP with 94 K’s in 72 ⅓ IP. Plus, he was a solid starter in 2014, 2015 and 2017, so I don’t see the trepidation here.

If you can’t get McHugh, then how about Anibal Sanchez? You know, the pitcher whose 29.8% soft-contact rate in the second half paced all starters with at least 50 innings on the books. The guy who just signed a two-year deal with the Nationals, who stand as one of the only teams trying to get better for 2019 in a division where every other team had a wRC+ value below 98, including the Marlins second-worst 83 wRC+. Yeah, that Anibal Sanchez.

Tier 11

This tier brings on plenty of reclamation projects and immeasurable hope. Can Danny Salazar stay healthy and regain his elite strikeout potential? Will Taijuan Walker and Jordan Montgomery recover well enough from their TJ surgeries to deliver late in 2019? Do the Yankees find a suitable trade offer for Sonny Gray and get him out of the Bronx? How will the Angels manage Trevor Cahill’s workload in an effort to keep his pre-injury form on the bump?

If you haven’t figured out by now, I’m a big fan of pitchers that are supported by teams who win a lot of games and have above-average bullpens. It only helps when their average exit velocity allowed is near the bottom of the charts, such as CC Sabathia’s. His 25.1% soft-contact rate was fifth out of SPs with >100 IPs. The others were Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Anibal. Retirement may be coming soon for Carsten Charles, but that day is not today.

Another name to (currently) be interested in is Framber Valdez, who is slated to open the season in Houston’s rotation unless they sign another starter. I don’t think they want Valdez in their Opening Day rotation, if we’re being honest, but this is the hand we’re dealing with right now. Valdez entered pro ball at 21 years old in 2015 and heads into his age-25 campaign having posted a 2.19 ERA/1.24 WHIP with 34 K’s in his first 37 big-league innings. While the sabermetrics don’t buy in (4.50 SIERA), he struck out 120 in 94 ⅓ IP at Double-A to kick off ‘18 with a 2.53 xFIP underneath a 4.10 ERA. If any team can unlock raw talent and strikeout potential, it’s Houston. You don’t let anyone in that rotation go undrafted, that’s just unwise.

Tiers 12, 13 and 14

In case you couldn’t tell, Tier 12 boils down to a pair of exciting Marlins for myself and JB. Trevor Richards and Caleb Smith are worth speculation. Richards ended his rookie season with two scoreless quality starts to cap off a 13-outing run with 77 punchouts and a 3.75 ERA in 69 ⅔ IP (despite an ugly 1 ⅓ IP, 6 ER day). Meanwhile, Smith caused a stir by striking out 69 in 56 pre-injury innings with a 3.51 ERA/1.15 WHIP for Miami, but a serious lat injury required surgery in June and ended his season. His fastball and slider are both above-average and worth eyeing.

I’ll note that Derek Holland is the lowest overall ranked pitcher that one of us has in our top-300, as I loved what he did once adjusting to the first-base side of the rubber in 2018. Of course, giving up spacious AT&T Park is a drawback and where he lands will affect his stock. After a June 15 loss to the Dodgers, Holland had a 4.48 ERA/4.61 FIP/4.71 xFIP with a 20.9% strikeout rate (8.8% SwStr). He then moved on the rubber before a June 20 victory over the Marlins sparked a 2.91 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.60 xFIP with a 24.9% strikeout rate (11.2% SwStr). His first-strike rate rose by four percentage points, his O-Swing by nine while his Z-Swing sunk by six. If he keeps some of those gains then I’ll be very interested in ‘19.

Pierre would like to draw your attention to Jacob Faria, while I don’t want any piece of him. The nearly 400-pick split might be the widest we’ve got here. The six-foot-four righty boasts a stellar changeup and entered 2018 having posted a 3.43 ERA/1.18 WHIP across 86 ⅔ IP as a rookie, but sophomore stumbled with a 5.40 ERA/1.43 WHIP in 65 frames. A nasty oblique injury ate up two months and he returned as a swingman “opener”, tossing three innings or so at a time. This is the role I anticipate he holds in ‘19 as well alongside Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, with Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow serving as the only traditional starters.

Another pair worth eyeing is the Brew Crew’s Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, who could pay immense dividends if either is handed a rotation job throughout 2019. For now, it looks like Woodruff should get the first crack at it after going 3-0 in 42 ⅓ IP (four starts) with a 3.30 FIP/3.36 xFIP/3.26 SIERA and a strong 47 strikeouts. Mix in Yasmani Grandal’s exemplary pitch-framing talents behind the dish and I’m in for a flier on Woodruff.

It looks as though JB is a Joe Ross believer, and I get it. Ross turns 26 in May and isn’t far removed from his 2015-16 with a 3.52 ERA/1.22 WHIP thanks to his fastball and slider. Again, pitching for Washington is a strong position, but he missed a big chunk of 2017-18 due to TJ surgery and was tagged with an ugly 5.02 ERA in 90 frames when on the bump. He must reel in the longball and ideally hone a third pitch to blossom, but a healthy offseason may yield dividends.

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