Updated First Base Rankings - 5x5 Roto (Mixed Leagues)

The clock ticks ever closer to Opening Day and we here at RotoBaller are back to give one final round of position-by-position analysis with a mixed-league, 5x5 framework. We’re going to start at the most glorious position on the field: first base. No, I didn’t play first myself, why do you ask? While there are some fun late-round flyers here, 1B is not a position to wait until the late rounds to fill.

Our mixed-league staff rankings come straight from the minds of myself, JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel. We’ve got them broken down into tiers for your digestive benefit and to help ease along the analytical process. Our ranks are some of the deepest you can find -- checking in at over 750 players! -- and we'll be updating them right through Opening Day, so be sure to bookmark our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the latest and greatest.

Without any more delay, let's test our sprint speed and hustle to the updated fantasy baseball first base rankings for March. Staff ranks are as of March 18th, 2019.

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First Base Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (March)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is a FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rank	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Pierre	Bill	JB	Scott	Auction $
1	1	Freddie Freeman	1B	22	9	23	22	20	31
2	1	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	20	29	18	19	21	31
3	2	Anthony Rizzo	1B	30	35	34	30	29	25
4	2	Rhys Hoskins	1B/OF	41	26	56	42	39	24
5	2	Cody Bellinger	1B/OF	43	44	43	37	51	23
6	2	Matt Carpenter	1B/2B/3B	68	40	39	43	69	23
7	3	Joey Votto	1B	47	71	45	50	87	20
8	3	Jose Abreu	1B	70	54	66	64	60	18
9	4	J.T. Realmuto	C/1B	97	64	91	67	50	14
10	4	Daniel Murphy	1B/2B	78	97	81	85	79	14
11	4	Jesus Aguilar	1B	98	84	89	89	83	13
12	4	Matt Olson	1B	91	90	114	107	64	13
13	4	Robinson Cano	1B/2B	103	118	105	102	104	12
14	4	Travis Shaw	1B/2B/3B	113	107	104	114	103	12
15	4	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	81	99	79	93	215	12
16	4	Joey Gallo	3B/1B/OF	84	102	102	120	165	12
17	4	Max Muncy	1B/2B/3B	150	120	124	111	88	11
18	5	Miguel Cabrera	1B	126	149	135	143	156	9
19	5	Ian Desmond	OF/1B	141	186	140	128	127	8
20	5	Eric Hosmer	1B	149	162	146	132	155	6
20	5	Luke Voit	1B	153	166	123	180	124	6
21	5	Ryan Braun	1B/OF	139	170	148	165	171	6
22	5	Jurickson Profar	SS/3B/1B/2B	192	197	143	137	147	6
23	5	Carlos Santana	1B/3B	134	200	170	173	231	6
24	6	Justin Smoak	1B	144	180	195	226	194	5
25	6	Tyler White	1B	157	163	191	211	224	5
26	6	Buster Posey	C/1B	221	173	197	186	237	4
27	6	Yuli Gurriel	1B/2B/3B	204	175	237	213	241	4
28	6	Trey Mancini	1B/OF	188	213	214	227	244	4
29	6	Josh Bell	1B	214	225	201	244	218	3
31	6	Jake Bauers	1B/OF	246	227	233	247	157	3
32	6	Jose Martinez	OF/1B	260	233	152	193	277	3
33	6	Pete Alonso	1B	291	238	275	215	105	2
34	7	C.J. Cron	1B	244	251	249	224	163	2
35	7	Ryan Zimmerman	1B	190	204	225	296	#N/A	2
36	7	Miguel Sano	1B/3B	304	181	159	267	247	2
37	7	Marwin Gonzalez	1B/2B/SS/OF	231	234	367	238	257	2
38	7	Brandon Belt	1B/OF	258	286	287	307	#N/A	1
39	7	Yonder Alonso	1B	427	266	248	248	246	1
40	7	Justin Bour	1B	271	270	266	347	#N/A	1
41	7	Jay Bruce	OF/1B	374	247	267	264	298	1
42	7	Ryan O'Hearn	1B	305	331	306	324	299	1
43	7	Niko Goodrum	1B/2B/3B/SS/OF	328	221	393	366	297	1
44	8	Kendrys Morales	1B	248	283	286	504	291	1
45	8	Ryan McMahon	1B/3B/2B	371	272	360	392	287	1
46	8	Wilmer Flores	1B/3B/2B	203	317	508	396	259	1
47	8	Ronald Guzman	1B	325	242	437	414	#N/A	1
48	8	Mitch Moreland	1B	322	297	307	498	#N/A	1
49	8	Tucker Barnhart	C/1B	280	458	426	297	#N/A	1
50	8	Eric Thames	1B/OF	407	303	378	400	#N/A	1
51	8	Ryon Healy	1B	401	271	419	408	#N/A	1
52	8	Chris Davis	1B	413	342	338	466	#N/A	1
53	8	Tyler Austin	1B	500	259	352	470	#N/A	1
54	8	Neil Walker	1B/2B	372	344	#N/A	473	#N/A	1
55	8	Adam Duvall	1B/OF	463	287	258	609	#N/A	1
56	8	Albert Pujols	1B	367	341	407	503	#N/A	1
57	8	Greg Bird	1B	441	370	358	497	#N/A	1
58	8	Steve Pearce	1B/2B/OF	434	382	357	505	#N/A	1
59	8	Colin Moran	3B/1B	440	391	469	434	#N/A	1
60	8	Jose Osuna	1B/OF	#N/A	396	471	#N/A	#N/A	1
61	8	John Hicks	C/1B	449	522	504	367	#N/A	1
62	8	Jedd Gyorko	1B/3B	513	375	420	545	#N/A	1
63	8	Rowdy Tellez	1B	475	333	447	605	#N/A	1
64	8	Dan Vogelbach	1B	456	387	477	578	#N/A	1
65	9	Logan Morrison	1B	#N/A	525	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	1
66	9	Ehire Adrianza	SS/1B/3B	#N/A	406	514	690	#N/A	1
67	9	A.J. Reed	1B	564	422	496	674	#N/A	1
68	9	David Freese	1B/3B	607	413	541	596	#N/A	1
69	9	Matt Adams	1B	581	#N/A	#N/A	517	#N/A	1
70	9	Nate Lowe	1B	620	541	#N/A	513	#N/A	1
71	9	Mark Canha	1B	#N/A	587	#N/A	557	#N/A	1
72	9	Miguel Rojas	1B/2B/3B/SS	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	581	#N/A	1
73	9	Victor Caratini	C/1B	#N/A	624	#N/A	573	#N/A	1
74	9	Christian Walker	1B	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	621	#N/A	1
75	9	Dominic Smith	1B	#N/A	634	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	1
76	9	Austin Slater	1B/OF	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	638	#N/A	1
77	9	Mark Reynolds	1B	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	652	#N/A	1
78	9	Garrett Cooper	1B	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	653	#N/A	1
79	9	Hanley Ramirez	1B	#N/A	636	#N/A	673	#N/A	1
80	9	Chris Shaw	1B	645	#N/A	#N/A	672	#N/A	1
81	9	Kevin Cron	1B	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	676	#N/A	1

 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

There’s little argument within our cohort about who the top-two first baggers are, with Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt pulling away from the rest towards the top-20. Interestingly, four of us have no more than a five-pick gap between the two, whereas Pierre puts Freeman at No. 9 overall and Goldschmidt at 29.

Now, I love Freeman but I can’t vault him into my top-10 unless I knew the elite power would be there. Freeman will always smash the ball with authority, but his fly-ball rate dropped nearly 10 percentage points from ‘17 to ‘18 with an identical rise in line-drive rate. This helped fuel his usual .300-.310 batting average, but 23 homers, 10 steals and an R+RBI tally under 200 despite over 700 plate appearances doesn't scream "first-round production." All projection systems roughly agree on a healthy 95-28-95-9-.300 line, which is wonderful, but I can’t see another leap coming.

Then there’s Goldy, who shed an early-season slump that lasted nearly two months only to put up a 1.019 OPS from the closing days of May on. At 31 years old, it’s unfair to expect the days of 15+ steals from him -- he had 11 attempts last season -- and looking to ‘17 isn’t quite fair either. 12 of his 18 steals in 2017 came in the first two months, and then he only stole six the rest of the way. The power and capacity for a .300 average should still be there, along with strong counting stats in the middle of STL’s order, but projecting more than 10 steals feels optimistic. This results in a line similar to Freeman’s that I’m perfectly happy drafting in the second round.

Tier Two

The second tier has a clear frontrunner in Anthony Rizzo, who should be able to cover the power stats of Tier One but will have a slightly lower batting average and a lower range of outcomes for speed. It's worth noting that he's topped 100 RBI in four consecutive years and had hit at least 31 homers in four straight seasons prior to 2018. Getting a high-floor power bat that can contribute speed and some average is commendable.

While I am bullish on Rhys Hoskins, it’s clear that Pierre -- who has Hoskins at 26, even above Goldy at 29 -- is a big fan of my No. 1 bold prediction that Hoskins would outproduce Bryce Harper. I’ll need to see some speed or a higher batting average to make that jump in my rankings, but I can envision the ceiling in Year Three for Hoskins.

Cody Bellinger falls just behind Hoskins, though he’s similar in having a sophomore setback after an outrageously-hot rookie campaign. Belly and Hoskins also grant you 1B/OF flexibility, but I think those seeking a floor will go with Hoskins and those reaching for ceiling go Bellinger due to the speed element and slightly higher average.

Finally, Matt Carpenter hit the soul out of the ball from mid-May to mid-August, posting a slugging percentage north of .700 across nearly half a season that made everyone forget that pesky .272 SLG from his first 35 games. We aren’t weighing OBP here so his patience “simply” equates to more runs for our interests, and he’s still unlikely to chip in more than a handful of steals or top 85 RBI. Projections settle around 90-28-80-.255, which is solid but more in line with Scott and I rather than Pierre, Bill and JB putting him around No. 40 overall. I get it, the ceiling is there, but I’m trying not to overweigh the spikes.

Tier Three

It’s debatable that Votto should be in with Tier Two, or that Carpenter should be among Tier Three with these guys, but I felt comfortable carving out Votto and Abreu as their own grouping. Votto’s penchant for contact in a hitter-friendly park and a much-improved lineup has me seeing a resurgence in counting stats. Abreu isn’t bad by any means and I’m surprised to be the low man, but I still worry about the ChiSox lineup and Abreu’s production relative to later names. For what it’s worth, Statcast still gave Abreu an expected batting average (xBA) of .280, as well as grading him with the highest exit velocity (91.3 MPH) of his four-year Statcast window. He’ll be fine.

 

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

This is a gigantic tier — full of nine players, though J.T. Realmuto will always slide in a C instead —and you do not want to wait past them. Murphy gets to rake in Coors Field, with experts such as Scott and myself putting him within the top-80 and no one landing him beyond No. 100. Encarnacion can still bring it in my eyes and three of my colleagues, but Scott has him beyond 100 picks lower than all of us.

Most of the other names are steady, but I must note my “bullishness” on Joey Gallo is likely still too low. The “BA drain” is rather overstated in relation to his insane power. His overall 5x5 finish last year was 90th, despite only notching 577 PAs and hitting .206 along the way. He led all hitters (min. 150 batted-ball events) with an 11.4% Barrels/PA rate, as well as pacing the field with an average exit velocity on flies and liners of 99.8 MPH. It’s pretty scary to see 40 homers as a floor, but if he closes on 600 PAs and carries over a few of these bunt hits from Spring Training then I’m very excited.

Tier Five

This is where hopes and dreams start to come alive, as you can see I believe in the resurgence of Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun, as well as being bullish with Carlos Santana back at Progressive Field. The only one I’m down on here is Profar, though no one is slotting him in at first base anyway. I’ll let someone else take up that battle.

Braun seems to be a popular rebound candidate as people see through the .254/.313/.469 slash line of 2018. He only played in 125 games and hasn’t topped 140 contests in a season since 2012, but 20-plus homers and double-digit steals are very much on the table. In fact, 2018 was Braun’s best Statcast year in the four seasons that BaseballSavant displays, with an xBA of .296, xSLG of .515 and a 49.5% hard-hit rate! He still runs, he can clearly still hit and Milwaukee’s lineup is stacked. Deal me in.

Tier Six

Our individual ranks illustrate the polarizing nature of these players well. Scott is all-in on Pete Alonso, which I’m all for if I didn’t have to bake in the Mets toying with playing time. That infield is so crowded even with Jed Lowrie getting hurt, as they may give Dominic Smith a real shot at the 1B job. If Alonso does get playing time then you’re looking at 25 homers, maybe more. I respect it.

I would rather scoop Justin Smoak and Tyler White, who I think are getting overlooked for different reasons. Heck, even Trey Mancini deserves more pop from the community. Maybe people think Smoak’s crazy 2017 was a mirage at age-30, but 25 homers and an OPS above .800 is still solid. Toronto’s offense will improve around him as the youngsters come up. Plus, Statcast still gave him a fourth-straight season with a hard-hit rate above 41% and a Barrel rate above 10%, so the life remains within his bat.

White swings a strong bat and plays in one of the top offenses in baseball, one that doesn’t have Evan Gattis clogging the DH anymore, yet his ADP doesn’t reflect the range of outcomes. The fact that he’s 28 years old and has yet to play a full season in the Majors may also influence perception here. Let their blind spot be your gain as 25 homers, an average that won’t help or harm you and Houston counting stats.

 

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

Again, you can find players here that some of us view as top-200 players and viable starters in 12-team formats. Scott loves C.J. Cron. I back Ryan Zimmerman. Pierre and Bill are still in on Miguel Sano. While you don’t want to lean on them, there is value to be mined. I’d be remiss if I didn’t stump for my boy, Zimmy, whose 9.9% Barrels/PA rate was fifth in the Majors out of batters with at least 200 batted-ball events. Joey Gallo, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts were the only ones ahead of him. Not bad, eh? Just stay healthy!

For what it’s worth, Cron ranked 31st on that list (out of 281 hitters) so he’s no slouch either. That said, let me explain my trepidation with Cron. His healthy barrel rate was actually backed by a loss in average exit velocity (89.2 MPH to 88 MPH flat) and a slip in launch angle, from 18 degrees to 15.2 degrees. His HR/FB rate had stayed within 12-15%, yet last season it flew to 21.4%. This seems like an outlier season to me, so the 225-250 range feels right for maybe 25 homers and a .260 average with no speed.

Tiers Eight and Nine

Can you tell that I’m aboard Team Wilmer? Yes, Flores should have an everyday path to PAs in AZ even after the Adam Jones signing and I am here for it. He’d put up HR/FB rates of 13.6% in ‘16 and ‘17 before it nearly cut in half at 7% last season. At least it came with a five-percentage-point drop in strikeouts -- tough to achieve in today’s climate -- that resulted in a measly 9.8% K rate. He’s still just 27 and THE BAT projects him for a useful 70-21-79-.277 line, with Fangraphs’ Depth Charts going further at 70-23-89-.282. Arizona is no longer a hitter’s park, but I’ll pay the $0 entry fee here.

Ryan McMahon would vault up if he wins the starting 2B job in Colorado, but it’s more likely that he and Hampson wind up splitting time as 2B/super-utility types. I want to believe that the Rockies will suddenly wake up and learn how to manage their youth well, but I cannot project that in good faith.

Those going for upside late should also give Dan Vogelbach a look. Out of options and with Ryon Healy manning third base in the wake of Kyle Seager’s injury, Vogelbach should have the inside track at first base to open 2019 and has already been told he’s on the Opening Day roster in Japan. What he does with the shot will determine his longevity and fantasy usefulness, but he crushed 20 homers in 84 Triple-A games last year and has pop worth monitoring.

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