RADIO
Part one of my 2018 NFL Draft Wide Receivers preview featured six of the wide receivers projected to be drafted early, however much of the excitement for this draft class is in the depth.
Once again, we'll be primarily using the regression tree created by Kevin Cole to examine the production of the prospects with success being defined as a top 24 PPR season within the player's first three years.
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Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame
Following a breakout sophomore campaign, St. Brown entered 2017 with big expectations. His raw production was hindered by the significant change in offensive scheme that shifted focus to the running game, but he still impacted the offense heavily as the leading receiver.
| Equanimeous St. Brown | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2015 | FR | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2016 | SO | 12 | 58 | 961 | 16.6 | 9 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| 2017 | JR | 12 | 33 | 515 | 15.6 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| Career | 92 | 1484 | 16.1 | 13 | 0.17 | 0.18 | ||
St. Brown only managed a career market share of 17 percent and his final season numbers put him in an undesirable node in the regression tree, but that doesn't mean all hope is lost for him. In addition to career market share, draft position is a strong indicator for potential success due to the opportunity given to the receiver. While St. Brown is near-universally outside of the top five receivers in the class, his strong pedigree and physique are enough to keep him as a day two selection.
Similar to Juju Smith-Schuster in 2017, had you reversed St. Brown's final two years, there wouldn't be any major concerns around his production and at 21, he'll be among the youngest WRs in the class. While he's not going to be the first round pick that many expected preseason, he's still likely to earn an early enough selection to be given a chance. From a fantasy perspective, he's probably only going to warrant a second round pick in rookie drafts despite entering the season as a potential early first.
Auden Tate, Florida St.
Tate was an alluring prospect on a team expected to compete for a National Championship entering 2017, but that all came crashing down in the first game of the year.
| Auden Tate | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2015 | FR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2016 | SO | 10 | 25 | 409 | 16.4 | 6 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| 2017 | JR | 12 | 40 | 548 | 13.7 | 10 | 0.21 | 0.48 |
| Career | 65 | 957 | 14.7 | 16 | 0.10 | 0.24 | ||
Tate's production is questionable, at best, from the perspective of an NFL draft pick. He never had more than 600 yards in a season and failed to amass 1,000 yards over the course of his career. Because of his low career market share and low yardage during his final season, he falls in the lowest success rate node.
Tate's production doesn't warrant an early selection, but as a six-foot-five receiver who is expected to test well at the combine, there will be many NFL teams willing to give him a chance. But that doesn't mean that he'll be an early round pick. At best, he appears to be a late day-two pick with early day-three being a more likely outcome. Because there's a general attraction to big WR in the fantasy community, he'll likely be drafted in the mid-to-late second round of dynasty leagues, but his value likely warrants a late third round pick.
Simmie Cobbs Jr., Indiana
For those who were unaware of him, Cobbs made a splash to start his 2017 campaign against Ohio State despite being matched up against project first-round pick, Denzel Ward.
| Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | |
| Simmie Cobbs Jr. | 11 | 149 | 13.5 | 1 |
Unfortunately, he wasn't able to build significantly on this early success, but he still remains an interesting later round prospect.
| Simmie Cobbs Jr. | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2014 | FR | 5 | 7 | 114 | 16.3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| 2015 | SO | 13 | 60 | 1035 | 17.3 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| 2017 | SR | 12 | 72 | 841 | 11.7 | 8 | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Career | 139 | 1990 | 14.3 | 12 | 0.23 | 0.20 | ||
For Cobbs, the highlight of his season was that first game and it only went down from there. His 11 catches were the most he had all years and he only had over 100 yards two additional times during the year. While his final two season's market shares were strong, he fell short of 29 percent on his career and below the 933 yards threshold for final season. There are reasons to be concerned with his production from a scouting perspective.
Cobbs has good size and won't be among the oldest prospects despite spending four years in school. And while he fell short of ideal production numbers, he showed flashes in games that should be alluring to an NFL franchise. If Cobbs can raise his stock through the draft process, he will also raise his fantasy value. As it stands, Cobbs appears to be a day three pick and a third or fourth round rookie pick. He'll be a prospect to keep an eye on, however, because of his physical gift.
D.J. Moore, Maryland
Moore might be the gem of this class and while some may know him, he's still a relative unknown in this year's draft.
| D.J. Moore | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2015 | FR | 11 | 25 | 357 | 14.3 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| 2016 | SO | 13 | 41 | 637 | 15.5 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| 2017 | JR | 12 | 80 | 1033 | 12.9 | 8 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| Career | 146 | 2027 | 13.9 | 17 | 0.32 | 0.38 | ||
Moore's career 32 percent MS and final season MS of 53 percent put him in the elite tier of receivers. What makes his production so impressive is the challenges faced by the offense. With four different quarterbacks and an offense that only mustered 1940 passing yards, Moore still managed to eclipse 1000 yards and added on eight TDs.
D.J. Moore has arguably the highest ceiling of any WR in the draft class and the only thing holding him back will be draft position. Because of his age and production, it's a strong possibility that a team will fall in love with him during the process and he'll end up a day two pick, but he'll need to perform well at the combine. If Moore is drafted anywhere on day two, he warrants a late first round pick in rookie drafts. If he slips to day three, then he'll fall into the second round.
Michael Gallup, Colorado St.
Despite spending his first two years at a junior college before eventually transferring to a relatively unheralded program, Gallup is climbing both fantasy and NFL draft boards with his outstanding production.
| Michael Gallup | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2014 (CC) | FR | 11 | 44 | 780 | 17.7 | 11 | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| 2015 (CC) | SO | 11 | 9 | 74 | 8.2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| 2016 | JR | 13 | 76 | 1272 | 16.7 | 14 | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| 2017 | SR | 13 | 100 | 1418 | 14.2 | 7 | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| Career | 176 | 3544 | 15.3 | 21 | 0.28 | 0.19 | ||
Gallup made a splash during his first junior college season and then spent his second year dealing with various injuries. This drop-off in production largely kept the major programs away from him and led him to Colorado State, which appears to have been a blessing. Gallup immediately emerged as the top offensive option for the CSU offense. With back-to-back seasons over 35 percent market share of yards, he finished as strong as any receiver in the class. Gallup finishes the regression tree in a node with a relatively high probability for success at 32 percent.
Gallup has already impressed in the draft process as one of the top receivers at the Senior Bowl and he could see his draft stock rise even further at the combine. His production speaks for itself and he will have an opportunity to show that he's the same caliber of player as anyone at major programs. Gallup appears to be on pace to earn a day two selection in the NFL draft which makes him a quality option for fantasy drafts. Gallup will be an early second round pick with a chance to climb into the back of the first round depending on where he ends up.
Allen Lazard, Iowa State
Lazard is a highly productive prospect out of a smaller program. He wasn't much of a known commodity, but a strong showing at the Senior Bowl has given him a lot of attention lately. First, a look at his college stats:
| Allen Lazard | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2014 | FR | 12 | 45 | 593 | 13.2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| 2015 | SO | 11 | 56 | 808 | 14.4 | 6 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| 2016 | JR | 12 | 69 | 1018 | 14.8 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| 2017 | SR | 13 | 71 | 941 | 13.3 | 10 | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| Career | 241 | 3360 | 13.9 | 26 | 0.27 | 0.30 | ||
Lazard has been very productive for the Cyclone offense for three consecutive seasons which includes at least 33 percent of the team's passing TDs each year. He does fall just short of the career 29 percent market share and more than 4.8 receptions per game in his final season. But his final season took place at the age of 21 which places him in 21 with a 32 percent success rate.
Lazard appears to be as consistent a prospect as there is in the class. He's near the average age for the class so there are no age concerns. And his redzone prowess will be a desirable trait at the next level. He'll need to have a strong draft process to be drafted highly, however. Early in the process, he projects as a day three selection which will hinder his fantasy value. In rookie drafts, he shouldn't be drafted before round three and round four will probably be a more appropriate value if he does end up a late pick in the NFL draft.
Keke Coutee, Texas Tech
If you're going to breakout late, then Coutee picked the perfect way to breakout.
| Keke Coutee | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2015 | FR | 5 | 11 | 105 | 9.5 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2016 | SO | 12 | 55 | 890 | 16.2 | 7 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| 2017 | JR | 13 | 93 | 1429 | 15.4 | 10 | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Career | 159 | 2424 | 15.2 | 17 | 0.16 | 0.14 | ||
Coutee's market share numbers look low despite having strong raw production in large part because of the air raid offense used at Texas Tech. That doesn't let him off the hook though in the model. His low career market share puts him on the left side of the regression tree and eventually lands him in node 21 with a 32 percent success rate. The critical point for Coutee turned out to be his age from a scouting perspective. He's still a young prospect.
Coutee's athleticism, as demonstrated by his 31.5 yard kickoff return average, is unlikely to be a question mark which should help his case at the combine. The biggest hindrance for Coutee from an NFL draft perspective will likely be concerns about the translation of his college offense to the NFL. He looks to be a day three pick with the only question being which round on day three. In rookie drafts, he should still be on the board in the third round and is a strong flier candidate.
Tre'Quan Smith, Central Florida
Smith was a strong producer for the "National Champion" Central Florida team and he produced every year he was on campus.
| Tre'Quan Smith | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2015 | FR | 12 | 52 | 724 | 13.9 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| 2016 | SO | 12 | 57 | 853 | 15 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| 2017 | JR | 13 | 59 | 1171 | 19.8 | 13 | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Career | 168 | 2748 | 16.4 | 22 | 0.30 | 0.34 | ||
Despite the team having various levels of success during his career, Smith produced well every season. He managed to amass more the 30 percent of the receiving yards each of his first two seasons and 27 percent during his final season (despite having a significant increase in raw production in 2017). Because of his career market share and deep threat capabilities, he finishes the regression tree in node 25 with a 30 percent historical success rate.
Smith will need to improve his NFL draft stock through the draft process to return significant value for fantasy. As it currently stands, he appears to be a day three selection. He'll likely need to improve his stock towards the fourth round in order to provide immediate return, but he's still a strong late round selection because of his college production. Any time after round two is probably an appropriate time to take Smith.
J'Mon Moore, Southern Mississippi
Moore will be a heavily debate prospect with his career ending with back-to-back 1000 yard seasons.
| J'Mon Moore | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2014 | FR | 1 | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 2015 | SO | 11 | 29 | 350 | 12.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| 2016 | JR | 12 | 62 | 1012 | 16.3 | 8 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| 2017 | SR | 13 | 65 | 1082 | 16.6 | 10 | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Career | 158 | 2477 | 15.7 | 21 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||
Moore's final two seasons should help elevate him on draft boards, but he falls short of the ideal career thresholds and he's an older prospect. Moore finishes the regression tree in node 20 with only a 5.8 percent success rate. Despite finishing strong at the collegiate level, he'll be facing an uphill battle for NFL success
Moore is likely going to be a late day three selection and will have limited fantasy value. His height could help him earn playing time, but, barring a draft day surprise, he's only worth a fourth round rookie pick.
Jaleel Scott, New Mexico St.
Scott is the other receiver prospect in the class to take the junior college route. His second season led to him eventually joining New Mexico State.
| Jaleel Scott | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | MS Yards | MS TD | |
| 2014 (CC) | FR | 10 | 9 | 90 | 10.0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| 2015 (CC) | SO | 12 | 45 | 668 | 14.8 | 9 | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| 2016 | JR | 11 | 23 | 283 | 12.3 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| 2017 | SR | 12 | 76 | 1079 | 14.2 | 9 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Career | 153 | 2120 | 13.9 | 23 | 0.16 | 0.23 | ||
The immediate concern around Scott is his failure to eclipse 25 percent market share of yards during any of his collegiate seasons and there's even more concern about his failure to dominate at a lower level of competition. Because Scott's birthday isn't readily available, his final node in the regression tree finishes as either node 21, 32 percent success rate, or 20, 5.8 percent success rate. Based on his four seasons, it's more likely that he completed his final season at age 22 which would leave him in an undesirable node.
Scott did not start the draft process strong during the Senior Bowl practices and will need a strong combine to earn fantasy relevance. In rookie drafts, he warrants a fourth round pick or to be left on waivers, but he could be an interesting late option with some upside.
