RADIO
In the 2016 NFL season, the Washington Redskins finished third in total offense and second in passing offense. Despite tremendous success in these facets, they only finished 21st in rushing offense and 12th in points per game. Additionally, the Redskins ranked a pitiful 30th out of 32 teams in red zone touchdown efficiency.
As prolific as Washington’s offense was in the overall sense, there were some pretty serious underlying problems that kept the team from reaching its full potential. Still, the overall prolificacy of the unit earned wunderkind offensive coordinator Sean McVay his very own head coaching job in Los Angeles with the Rams at the ripe old age of 31, good for youngest in the NFL. Washington promoted quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh from within to try to build on the success McVay’s unit enjoyed from a year ago, but any conversation about the Redskins offense needs to begin with the acknowledgement that they lost a very talented young coach.
Nevertheless, there’s reason to believe that the continuity provided from most of the rest of the cast of characters will sustain something close to the dominance of 2016.
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Washington Redskins 2017 Team Outlook
Offseason Moves
Notable Additions: RB Samaje Perine, WR Terrelle Pryor, WR Brian Quick, DL Jonathan Allen
Notable Losses: WR Pierre Garcon, WR DeSean Jackson
Quarterback
Leading the charge was a passing game helmed by Pro Bowl Quarterback Kirk Cousins who fell just 83 yards short of logging only the 10th 5,000 yard passing season in league history, which would have made him just the sixth QB to accomplish that benchmark (Drew Brees has done it in five different NFL seasons). Putting on lid on Cousins’ upside was the aforementioned woes that Washington experienced in the red zone a year ago, as Cousins was only able to parlay his 4,917 yards, good for third best in 2016, with 25 passing TDs, only good for 13th in that category. Cousins did, however, boost his fantasy bottom line by rushing for four more scores.
For the ‘glass half full’ crowd, it makes sense to say that Cousins’ TD total was a good deal lower than you’d expect from a near-5,000 yard passer. It’s fair to wonder if some positive TD regression could be in his future. For the ‘glass half empty’ crown, it makes sense to question whether the team’s failure to convert more of those red zone trips into TDs was representative of a hole in Kirk’s game. Wherever you stand on this issue, the end result of Cousins’ 2016 fantasy campaign was a fifth finish among all QBs in fantasy points, so the upside is there even if his pedestrian TD numbers persist. He should still be drafted as a mid to low end QB1 and is a solid bet to record his third straight top-10 finish at the position. QB is an extremely deep position and the range at which top QBs are selected can vary widely from league to league, but Cousins looks like a value going outside of the top 75 overall picks.
Running Backs
As mentioned at the top, for as productive as the Redskins offense was in the overall sense, the rushing attack from a year ago left much to be desired. While Washington invested their first three picks in the 2016 draft to bolster their 28th ranked defense, the first player selected on the offensive side of the ball was fourth-round running back Samaje Perine. Forming an absolutely dominant tandem with Joe Mixon at Oklahoma, Perine actually holds the single game NCAA rushing record registering a ridiculous total of 427 yards against Kansas as a true freshman. More of a bruiser than a slasher, Perine was brought in to battle incumbent starter Rob Kelley for the starting gig in Washington.
Wrestling the starting job from Matt Jones in the middle of the 2016 season, undrafted free agent Kelley, then a rookie, made some big splashes, including an RB1 overall finish in a week 10 contest against the Packers in which he parlayed 24 carries into 137 yards and three TDs. Kelley and the running game struggled down the stretch, however, as he finished the season having rushed for 704 yards at a fairly pedestrian 4.2 yards per carry. Still, despite Perine showing some flashes, Kelley has solidified his early-season grip on the Redskins starting job with an impressive 10 carries for 57 yards and a TD against the Bengals in the all-important Preseason Week 3 dress rehearsal. Pushing for his trade or release, Matt Jones can safely be ignored as the odd man out, for as long as he remains on Washington’s roster.
It’s a backfield to watch as the season progresses, and it would be foolish to bury Perine just yet, and buyers of the rookie need only look back to the situation with Jeremy Langford and Jordan Howard in Chicago a year ago for the blueprint to a midseason fantasy breakout. As a relatively low-cost handcuff, it makes sense for Kelley owners to secure the rights to Perine’s services. Right at the borderline between RB2 and flex territory, Kelley represents potential workhorse volume that you’re not going to find from any other RB coming off the board in round 8.
Not to be forgotten in PPR, Chris Thompson is the other cog in the Redskins RB machine, who finished 28th at the position in such formats a year ago. Thompson logged 68 carries and 49 catches (good for 12th among RBs) for 705 total yards and 5 TDs in 2016. More of a safe flex option than an upside pick, Thompson represents a value, appearing outside the top 50 in consensus running back rankings. While it makes sense to draft for ceiling in the later rounds, Thompson currently isn’t getting enough credit at his ADP well outside the top 150 overall. You could do worse as a PPR bye-week fill in.
Wide Receivers
Washington’s wide receiver position is one that has seen quite a lot of change from 2016 to 2017. Gone are the pair of 1,000 yard receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Stepping up in their place are new additions Terrelle Pryor and 2016 first-round draftee Josh Doctson, who missed over 90% of his rookie season. Standing 6’ 4” tall each, the Redskins are hoping their new outside receivers will provide the size to be more effective in scoring range than Jackson (5’ 10”) and Garcon (6’ 0”) were a year ago. There’s no denying that Pryor and Doctson give up a lot to Jackson and Garcon in the experience department, but both have flashed elite physical tools that arguably give the new pair higher upside. Still, the preseason results have been uninspiring and a learning curve could cap the production in the season’s early weeks.
Jamison Crowder is the lone holdover at the position who played a significant role in 2016. In a breakout year of sorts, Crowder caught 67 of 99 targets for 847 yards to go with eight total TDs, good for 25th among WRs in standard formats. At least for the early part of the season, Crowder figures to be targeted early and often and represents the most stable, high-floor player in the Redskins WR corps. While there’s a lot to like about Pryor, who finished 18th among wideouts a year ago and has been gifted a massive upgrade at QB, Crowder is arguably the better value going in the seventh round than Pryor presents in round three. Josh Doctson makes for an intriguing sleeper outside the top 50 at the position, but he’ll need to prove he can stay healthy to cash in on his upside.
Tight Ends
Speaking of upside, arguably no player on the Redskins roster has greater potential to be a fantasy stud than tight end Jordan Reed. While he’s missed 11 games over his past three seasons, Rob Gronkowski is the only TE who has scored more fantasy points per game since the start of 2015 than Reed. Healthy at present, there is certainly opportunity for Reed to turn a profit at his current fifth round average draft position. The analysis is simple: Jordan Reed is a stud and an every-week must-start player when healthy. Just be prepared to keep an eye on the injury report every week if you’re resigned to take the plunge.
Overall Fantasy Outlook
While it remains to be seen if the Redskins can reprise their position as an offensive juggernaut in 2017, there’s no question that the roster is heavy on talent. The departure of Sean McVay leaves a question mark at the top, but if Jordan Reed and the other key cogs can stay healthy, the sky is the limit for Kirk Cousins and the passing game. They have enough at RB to at least marginally improve on last year’s mediocre rushing totals and perhaps become a more balanced unit that can convert more of those scoring opportunities into TDs. If they can manage to do that, purchasing stock in this Redskins offense will be tremendous for your team’s fantasy bottom line.
