RADIO
This article continues our team outlook series where we will break down each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off-season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year. Today we take a look at the Indianapolis Colts.
It wasn’t too long ago that the Indianapolis Colts appeared ready to make a Super Bowl run. With an incredibly talented young quarterback, a flurry of offensive weapons, and a decent supporting cast on defense, it seemed like only a matter of time before the team took the next step to play in professional football’s biggest game. Of course, the team has now missed the postseason in back-to-back years, struggling to live up to the hype while dealing with a number of significant holes on their roster. The Colts’ offense has produced several fantasy-relevant players in the past, but what should we expect heading into 2017?
Overall, there are more question marks than concrete projections for the upcoming Indianapolis Colts season, but there is definitely opportunity to derive some fantasy production from many of the players to be mentioned. Let’s take a look.
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Offseason Moves
Key Offseason Additions: WR Kamar Aiken, RB Marlon Mack
Key Offseason Departures: TE Dwayne Allen, SS Mike Adams, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Robert Mathis, OL Joe Reitz
Quarterbacks
Whoever starts at quarterback for the Colts in 2017 will be the primary determinant of how fantasy-relevant this offense will be. The difference is literally night and day between the 4000-yard pedigree of Andrew Luck and former Green Bay Packer backup Scott Tolzien, with both drastically impacting the ceiling of every other player around them. Looking back to 2015 when Luck was injured for most of the season, the Colts’ offense ranked 28th in total yards, 22nd in passing yards, and 24th in scoring. Those numbers inspire little hope in a team that could very well be without Luck for a good chunk of season, considering that the Colts have opted to take things slowly with his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery. Luck’s numbers in 2016 weren’t nearly as good as his incredible 2014 campaign, but it is undebatable that he is a top-5 fantasy quarterback when healthy and should be valued as such if he can make it on the field for over 12 games in 2017. Unfortunately, the high risk/high reward chance you have to take to get him is not worth the draft capital of a pick before round seven. Tolzien, on the other hand, is simply undraftable.
Running Backs
Frank Gore, who turned 34 this last May, has continued to grind out yardage and show that he is an all-purpose back despite being in the twilight of his career. As long as he is fully healthy and performing at a high level, Gore will have a firm grip on the starting job in 2017. Despite having a good chance to shoulder a majority of the rushing workload, his elusiveness and burst have largely diminished, limiting his upside. The Colts are clearly aware of that fact after selecting fourth round speedster Marlon Mack in the 2017 NFL Draft. With a curious combination of power and agility, Mack figures to get receive a few carries himself even if Gore remains upright. Spell-back Robert Turbin also figures to be a part of the offense, scoring eight all-purpose touchdowns last season as an exceptional complimentary player in short yardage situations. Trust in Gore to hold on to lead back duties when healthy, as he will likely be heavily relied upon in the event that Andrew Luck doesn’t start under center. Turbin and Mack make for interesting late round selections, as they both have been performing quite well in training camp. However, Mack is the handcuff to own as a guy who could explode onto the scene if Gore were to miss time.
Wide Receivers
The Colts definitely aren’t short of playmakers at the wide receiver position. T.Y. Hilton enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017, ranking first in the NFL in receiving yards and 20-plus yard receiving plays, and remains one of the key offensive weapons to own. The big-bodied Donte Moncrief should be more involved in the passing attack after missing seven games last season, should he manage to keep himself on the field. He’s a trendy breakout pick in many fantasy circles as one of the team’s most dominant red-zone threats. After that, it becomes difficult to buy in to any of the other wide receivers who have thus far been unremarkable in training camp. Chester Rogers, Phillip Dorsett, and Kamar Aiken don’t have any standalone value without injury to Hilton or Moncrief, meaning it’s best to focus your attention on selecting one of those two than wait to get a Colts’ wide receiver in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle is the unquestioned no. 1 tight end in Indianapolis and could make for a solid starting option for owners looking to sit on drafting a tight end until after the opening five rounds. He proved to be an exceptional security blanket in 2016 and delivered as both a receiver and blocker, meaning he will undoubtedly be on the field for the majority of the team's offensive snaps. Backup Erik Swoope offers a much different skill-set, having managed an eye-popping 19.8 yards per reception last season as a dynamic and athletic receiving threat. Despite the success as a receiver, Swoope shouldn’t be drafted in most league formats and should instead be a hot waiver wire add if Doyle goes down.
Kicker
Adam Vinatieri is a consensus top-10 kicker… when Andrew Luck leads the offense. See the quarterback section of this outlook for evidence of the immense dip in production from the offense as a whole when he isn’t on the field. Clearly, a kicker’s fantasy value is dependent on scoring opportunity, and a Tolzien-led offense will do no such favors in that department. Despite no concerns from Vinatieri physically, he might have less of an opportunity to deliver fantasy points based on how inept the Colts’ offense could be.
Defense/Special Teams
New general manager Chris Ballard took an extremely aggressive approach to reforming the defense in free agency and the NFL Draft, bringing in several pieces to try and bolster a defensive unit that has finished 20th or worse in the last four seasons. These additions included defensive linemen Johnathan Hankins, Margus Hunt, and Al Woods, as well as linebackers Jabaal Sheard, John Simon, Sean Spence, and Barkevious Mingo. Short of a miraculous turn-around, the Colts defense will likely finish similar to previous seasons in terms of total defense this upcoming season as a group of players still trying to meld. They deserve to go undrafted as a bottom-5 fantasy defense that could serve as a rarely useable stream option at best.
Fantasy Outlook
A team in the Indianapolis Colts that was once a fantasy goldmine has unfortunately flipped the script and become one of the most ambiguous. Fantasy owners are in large part being forced to draft in the dark when it comes to ‘what could be’ in the Colts’ offense, with Andrew Luck’s timetable to return a tightly kept secret. Every single player on the offense will take a hit when Scott Tolzien has a hold on the starting quarterback job, especially the second round-priced T.Y. Hilton. For those who can be patient and wait for more information before drafting, it is paramount to monitor Luck’s status heading into 2017. Otherwise, you could end up with some tough roster decisions when the offense sputters out. At present, it’s difficult to hold a whole lot of optimism for the team as they appear to be stuck in a middle ground between rebuilding and contending. However, the fantasy football production of their star players when healthy is simply unquestionable.
