2017 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Outfield, Part Two (February)

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Yesterday, my colleague Kyle Bishop reviewed the meat of the outfield market.

Today, we sort through the mid-tier guys and the scraps (tier six and below) with a keen eye for hidden treasures that could win you your league.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders, Part Two (February)

Ranking Tier Player Position Brad Kyle Nick Bill Harris Y Jeff Auction $
43 6 Matt Holliday 1B/OF 213 201 142 144 176 129 6
44 6 Adam Duvall OF 196 154 157 158 212 143 6
45 6 Marcell Ozuna OF 157 112 179 179 159 257 6
46 6 Carlos Beltran OF 152 144 164 165 175 244 6
47 6 Carlos Gomez OF 161 196 190 190 217 107 6
48 6 Byron Buxton OF 200 200 203 203 168 127 5
49 6 Curtis Granderson OF 146 211 163 164 218 226 5
50 6 Nomar Mazara OF 231 173 183 183 157 230 5
51 6 Domingo Santana OF 183 163 185 185 257 201 5
52 6 Randal Grichuk OF 186 195 189 189 219 240 4
53 6 Rajai Davis OF 162 207 195 196 280 178 4
54 6 Kevin Kiermaier OF 211 261 169 170 260 200 4
55 7 Yasmany Tomas OF 238 214 215 215 214 199 4
56 7 Josh Reddick OF 179 273 257 257 199 174 3
57 7 David Peralta OF 252 178 216 216 259 241 3
58 7 Melky Cabrera OF 202 222 231 231 201 276 3
59 7 Shin-Soo Choo OF 199 276 219 219 230 225 3
60 7 Jayson Werth OF 193 210 236 236 258 258 3
61 7 Brett Gardner OF 209 274 248 248 232 181 3
62 7 Jacoby Ellsbury OF 223 272 249 249 231 180 3
63 7 Ender Inciarte OF 227 248 237 237 237 227 2
64 7 Hunter Renfroe OF 266 245 212 212 235 274 2
65 7 Yasiel Puig OF 232 259 290 290 200 179 2
66 7 Cameron Maybin OF 175 289 230 230 301 228 2
67 7 Michael Conforto OF 228 224 259 259 271 223 2
68 7 Keon Broxton OF 271 278 264 264 227 173 2
69 8 Hernan Perez 3B/OF 291 225 312 312 203 137 2
70 8 Max Kepler OF 288 242 242 242 236 242 2
71 8 Brandon Moss OF 226 301 194 195 319 292 2
72 8 Jay Bruce OF 333 246 261 261 213 224 2
73 8 Jason Heyward OF 198 258 301 301 233 259 2
74 8 Corey Dickerson OF 242 280 244 244 308 275 2
75 8 Joshua Bell 1B/OF 285 298 285 285 205 261 2
76 8 Alex Gordon OF 247 269 387 384 229 229 2
77 8 Leonys Martin OF 257 268 370 369 261 243 2
78 8 Steve Pearce 1B/2B/OF 303 371 295 295 350 217 1
79 8 Jorge Soler OF 352 369 319 319 228 272 1
80 8 Michael Saunders OF 263 290 388 385 307 279 1
81 8 Manuel Margot OF 327 308 316 316 281 369 1
82 8 Steven Souza OF 296 295 376 375 320 273 1
83 8 Kevin Pillar OF 319 353 351 351 302 278 1
84 8 Scott Schebler OF 388 297 338 338 273 364 1
85 8 Alex Dickerson OF 283 294 390 387 402 271 1
86 9 Melvin Upton Jr. OF 328 331 396 393 303 277 1
87 9 Brandon Drury 3B/OF 337 382 303 303 354 373 1
88 9 Jarrod Dyson OF 340 327 371 370 279 370 1
89 9 Nick Markakis OF 318 302 395 392 294 361 1
90 9 Travis Jankowski OF 305 365 378 377 278 363 1
91 9 Chris Owings SS/OF 320 328 308 308 400 408 1
92 9 Danny Valencia 1B/3B/OF 377 296 365 365 351 345 1
93 9 Mitch Haniger OF 452 470 306 306 322 270 1
94 9 Tyler Naquin OF 423 355 329 329 304 396 1
95 9 Lonnie Chisenhall OF 277 364 392 389 368 368 1
96 9 Andrew Toles OF 425 262 380 378 355 395 1
97 9 Aaron Altherr OF 323 310 405 402 412 362 1
98 9 Paulo Orlando OF #N/A #N/A #N/A 356 383 1
99 9 Denard Span OF 410 448 382 380 238 365 1
100 9 Aaron Judge OF 365 383 398 395 272 418 1
101 9 Hyun-soo Kim OF 382 277 454 453 305 366 1
102 9 Angel Pagan OF 401 352 451 450 295 367 1
103 9 Mallex Smith OF 345 362 372 371 457 411 1
104 9 Roman Quinn OF 471 344 335 335 411 475 1
105 10 Raimel Tapia OF 407 354 404 401 458 1
106 10 Trayce Thompson OF 447 415 399 396 371 1
107 10 Chris Coghlan OF 434 384 #N/A #N/A 1
108 10 Seth Smith OF 392 407 448 447 321 467 1
109 10 Colby Rasmus OF 411 462 422 419 349 420 1
110 10 Ezequiel Carrera OF 440 439 370 1
111 10 Ben Revere OF 431 436 413 410 417 397 1
112 10 Nori Aoki OF 460 #N/A #N/A #N/A 371 421 1
113 10 Brandon Guyer OF 448 404 437 436 369 1
114 10 Brett Eibner OF 417 352 352 483 492 1
115 10 Jefry Marte 1B/OF 456 316 393 390 481 484 1
116 10 Robbie Grossman OF 430 332 438 437 425 486 1
117 10 Enrique Hernandez OF 428 425 1
118 11 Jarrett Parker OF #N/A #N/A #N/A 429 1
119 11 Jake Marisnick OF #N/A #N/A #N/A 430 1
120 11 Blake Swihart C/OF 371 420 436 435 499 447 1
121 11 Matt Joyce OF 488 #N/A #N/A #N/A 385 1
122 11 Aaron Hicks OF 464 #N/A #N/A #N/A 413 1
123 11 Abraham Almonte OF 415 437 430 427 495 1
124 11 Albert Almora OF 481 418 #N/A #N/A 424 1
125 11 Jon Jay OF 403 491 461 460 423 422 1
126 11 Gerardo Parra OF 451 493 481 481 357 412 1
127 11 Ryan Rua OF #N/A 457 456 428 1
128 11 Brandon Nimmo OF 499 425 422 1
129 11 Jeremy Hazelbaker OF 429 426 497 1
130 11 Coco Crisp OF 487 #N/A #N/A #N/A 416 1
131 11 Delino DeShields OF 461 484 432 430 418 489 1
132 11 Avisail Garcia OF 494 489 420 417 415 488 1
133 11 Ben Gamel OF #N/A #N/A #N/A 474 435 1
134 11 Andre Ethier OF 441 449 458 457 473 1
135 11 Eddie Rosario OF 499 #N/A #N/A #N/A 414 1
136 11 Franklin Gutierrez OF 457 #N/A #N/A #N/A 1
137 11 Brock Holt 3B/OF 498 490 #N/A #N/A 401 449 1
138 11 Socrates Brito OF 469 469 472 434 1
139 11 Jake Smolinski OF 462 #N/A #N/A #N/A 1
140 11 Chris Young OF 492 435 434 495 1
141 11 Billy Burns OF 493 435 #N/A #N/A 481 1
142 11 Tommy Pham OF 473 479 #N/A #N/A 491 1
143 11 Mac Williamson OF #N/A #N/A #N/A 482 1
144 11 Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF 483 483 1
145 11 Juan Lagares OF #N/A #N/A #N/A 484 1
146 11 Michael Taylor OF 497 473 #N/A #N/A 496 1

 

Outfielder Rankings Analysis (Part Two): The Tiers

Tier 6

At this part of the draft, I start looking for the highest upside unless I am in a very deep league. The players without upside here are not much better than waiver wire fodder, and you cannot win a league wasting picks on them. Consistent with this philosophy, two risky players I like more than my colleagues are Carlos Gomez and Byron Buxton, whereas two I like less are Carlos Beltran and Marcell Ozuna.

Carlos Gomez has been a major fantasy disappointment the past two years, but in the three years prior he averaged .277/22/82/66/37. After signing with Texas last year, he posted a .284/8/18/24/5 line in just 33 games, which is a ridiculous 162 game average of .284/39/88/118/25. While that is clearly unrealistic, it nevertheless shows his upside is too high to last so long. Byron Buxton is a similarly risky speed/power gamble. In just 298 at bats last year, he stole 10 bases and hit 10 homers (with 35 extra base hits). He is the former number one overall prospect, 23 years old, stole 55 bases in a minor-league season, has a .302 minor league average, and had 35 extra base hits in the majors in less than half a season of at bats. He is one of the highest upside gambles.

Many are taking players such as Carlos Beltran and Marcell Ozuna (way) ahead of them. Last year, I listed Beltran as one of my buy-low candidates. But it is time to sell high. First, he is leaving the hitters’ paradise of Yankee Stadium and the AL East for the AL West. Second, his stats dropped off a bit after the trade. Third, he steals no bases, which limits his upside. Marcell Ozuna’s value is likewise limited by the fact that he does not steal bases; he has 10 in three and a half years, and he had zero last year. He has career highs of .269 and 23 homers. At age 26, there is room for improvement, but the lack of steals makes him less worthy of a gamble than Gomez or Buxton.

Others in this tier I think are undervalued are Adam Duvall (.241/33/85/103/6 in 150 games at 27 years old) and Rajai Davis (.249/12/74/48/43), while I would avoid Curtis Granderson (homers likely to regress and steals vanishing, with a low average) and Nomar Mazara (no steals and not yet elite in other categories) at their current prices. Matt Holliday was one of my favorite values before the Chris Carter acquisition.

Tier 7

Keon Broxton is one of my favorite targets. In 75 games, he stole 23 bases and swatted nine homers (for a 162-game average of 50 steals and 19 homers). Milwaukee loves to run and is a great park for righty power. Broxton should be owned in all leagues where he starts to fall this low.

Three other players who are being undervalued are Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Yasiel Puig. These players don’t have as much upside as the others I’ve discussed so far, but have potential to make meaningful separation from waiver wire fodder than the others being drafted at this stage. In New York, Ellsbury has 162 game averages of .264/83/13/64/32. Fifteen homers and 25 steals at .270 is optimistic but reasonable. Brett Gardner had been very consistent until a slight dropoff last year, which may have been injury-related; he can post .260 with low double-digit homers, 20 steals, 90 runs and 50 runs batted in. Puig is more of a lower floor candidate, as he’s played 183 games the past two years and posted middling numbers. However, he has the highest ceiling, as he’s just 26 and put up 162 game averages his prior two years of .305/23/102/72/15. The stolen bases likely won’t be that high, but he’s young and strong enough to experience a power breakout.

On the other hand, Melky Cabrera is being overvalued. His best numbers from his two years in Chicago are .296/14/70/86/3. The lineup will be worse, and he does not have power or speed; he is Nick Markakis with possibly less upside.

Tier 8

My favorite value from tier 8 is Hernan Perez. He is coming off a line of .272/13/50/56/34 in just 123 games and 404 at bats. He will be 26, has multi-positional eligibility, and could get you 40 steals with double digit homers and a respectable average. One player who is a bit undervalued is Jay Bruce; while it is unclear how the Mets’ outfield logjam will play out, and Bruce struggled after his trade, he did hit .250 with 33 homers and 99 runs batted in last year, with 25 steals over the past three years. He has been much better in the first half the past three years, and he may be a player to draft and trade after a hot first half. I’d also keep an eye on the powerful 25-year-old, Jorge Soler, at the end of the draft. In 682 career at bats, he has hit .258/27/87/98/4. If he can stay healthy, he can be a surprise fantasy asset.

Tier 9

My favorite deep sleeper target is Mitch Haniger; he is just 26 and hit .341/.428/.670 in 74 games in the PCL last year with 20 homers and eight steals. That success did not translate to the majors last year in a short stint, but Seattle obviously liked what they saw in him; he should get a shot to prove his value and has the power/speed combo I like to target. Melvin Upton is another speed/power type. However, he has been pretty bad recently except for his stint in San Diego, but he did put up 20 homers and 27 steals last year. I’d rather chase that upside than select waiver wire equivalents at this stage, unless I was in the deepest of leagues. If you have a deep bench, Jarrod Dyson could be a very late source of some cheap steals.

Tier 10+

Ben Revere is worth being on your watch list despite not having an everyday role and coming off a poor 2016. He will battle Cameron Maybin for playing time, and Maybin does not have the best track record healthwise. From 2011-2015, Revere averaged .296/1/64/30/35 in just 126 games per year. If you could pick up 35 steals in 125 games, with a good average, either off the waiver wire or for $1, he is a good buy-low candidate in deep bench leagues. Gerardo Parra may also be worth a look in leagues with deeper benches; while the Rockies’ outfield is full, if someone goes down he does have some upside. He hit .294 with five homers, 29 runs, 23 runs batted in and two steals in fewer than 200 at bats at Coors Field last year. In 2015 he went .291/14/83/51/14. And at this stage, any path you can find to reasonable upside is worth targeting.



2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings