Welcome to our 2017 fantasy baseball first base rankings for February. Even though first basemen and designated hitter types have faced a tough free agent market this offseason, don’t let that fool you into thinking they’re not valuable fantasy baseball commodities.

This round of rankings features picks from Kyle Bishop, Nick Mariano, Bill Dubiel, Brad Johnson, Harris Yudin and Jeff Kahntroff. Below I lay out RotoBaller’s tiered rankings, together with explanations of how my rankings diverge from my colleagues’.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Basemen (February)

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Brad	Kyle	Nick	Bill	Harris Y	Jeff	Auction $
1	1	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	5	4	5	5	5	6	43
2	2	Miguel Cabrera	1B	9	9	11	11	10	14	37
3	2	Anthony Rizzo	1B	8	10	10	9	13	21	36
4	3	Joey Votto	1B	22	24	17	14	12	19	33
5	3	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	34	36	27	22	22	26	28
6	3	Freddie Freeman	1B	31	34	34	34	15	30	27
7	4	Wil Myers	1B	36	62	39	39	40	36	23
8	4	Matt Carpenter	1B/2B/3B	44	48	56	52	67	39	22
9	4	Jose Abreu	1B	42	54	41	42	53	78	21
10	4	Chris Davis	1B	49	53	68	68	52	38	21
11	4	Hanley Ramirez	1B	46	52	53	53	69	60	21
12	4	Carlos Santana	1B	79	117	69	69	109	81	17
13	5	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	102	118	121	122	110	146	10
14	5	Albert Pujols	1B	158	116	98	97	111	144	10
15	5	Eric Hosmer	1B	148	134	116	116	105	145	10
16	5	Kendrys Morales	1B	142	208	103	103	156	79	10
17	5	Victor Martinez	1B	153	143	113	113	155	232	9
18	5	Brandon Belt	1B	169	206	155	156	135	147	6
19	5	Matt Holliday	1B/OF	213	201	142	144	176	129	6
20	5	Greg Bird	1B	171	149	186	186	206	231	5
21	6	Mike Napoli	1B	233	216	225	225	181	233	3
22	6	Tommy Joseph	1B	217	218	201	202	240	285	3
23	6	Lucas Duda	1B	255	215	208	208	239	287	3
24	6	Eric Thames	1B	151	315	222	222	306	260	2
25	6	Chris Carter	1B	239	253	239	239	300	288	2
26	6	Justin Bour	1B	313	205	269	269	263	286	2
27	6	Joshua Bell	1B/OF	285	298	285	285	205	261	2
28	6	C.J. Cron	1B	294	256	271	271	299	289	2
29	7	Steve Pearce	1B/2B/OF	303	371	295	295	350	217	1
30	7	Mitch Moreland	1B	312	374	252	252	262	438	1
31	7	Ryan Zimmerman	1B	339	399	300	300	337	343	1
32	7	Danny Valencia	1B/3B/OF	377	296	365	365	351	345	1
33	7	Joe Mauer	1B	438	372	346	346	335	440	1
34	7	Travis Shaw	1B/3B	398	411	334	334	383	423	1
35	7	Adam Lind	1B	370	388	349	349	393	437	1
36	7	Wilmer Flores	1B/3B	413	394	417	414	352	393	1
37	7	Byung-ho Park	1B	359	376	368	468	500	402	1
38	7	Dan Vogelbach	1B	420	455	359	359	426	485	1
39	7	Matt Adams	1B	405	408	383	381	449	487	1
40	7	Jefry Marte	1B/OF	456	316	393	390	481	484	1
41	7	A.J. Reed	1B	387	446	367	367	490	490	1
42	7	David Freese	1B/3B	419	494	407	404	353	494	1
43	7	Kennys Vargas	1B	470	475	389	386	422	433	1
44	7	Tyler Austin	1B		498	391	388	452		1
45	7	Logan Morrison	1B	436	424	#N/A	#N/A	450		1
46	7	Luis Valbuena	1B/3B	490	412	467	466	440	390	1
47	7	Justin Smoak	1B	501	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	392		1
48	7	Sean Rodriguez	1B			455	454		473	1
49	7	Marwin Gonzalez	1B		#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	498		1

 
 

First Base Rankings Analysis: The Tiers

Tier 1

Goldschmidt has been very steady. A .300/30/100/100/20 line seems reasonable. His stolen base track record separates him from the rest of the tier.

Tier 2

Miggy has done nothing but hit: .324, .328,.344, .330, .348, .313, .338, .316 are his batting averages since 2009. His power returned last year, and if he can get a full season from J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton adjusts to the league, his run production could increase as well. The batting average separates Cabrera and our #3 first basemen Rizzo for me. My fellow rankers are higher on Rizzo than I am (I have him at #21 overall). Although our composite rankings have Rizzo and Miggy in the same tier, Miggy is my clear number two.

Tier 3

During and after his down 2014 which was marred by injury, many questioned if Joey Votto’s days of eliteness were done. He returned with .314/29/95/80/11 and .326/29/101/97/8 lines. He’s back.

If it were solely up to me, I'd have Rizzo in this tier with Votto, Freeman and Encarnacion. Below are their numbers for the last two years, their 162-game averages, and their 2017 Steamer projections.

PLAYER (AGE)	2016	2015	2015-16 162 GM AVG	STEAMER
Joey Votto (33)	.326/29/101/97/8	.314/29/95/80/11	.320/30/101/88/10	.288/23/86/77/6
Freddie Freeman (27)	.302/34/102/91/6	.276/18/62/66/3	.292/31/97/93/6	.275/26/84/86/4
Edwin Encarnacion (34)	.263/42/99/127/2	.277/39/94/111/3	.269/43/103/126/3	.254/30/79/91/2
Anthony Rizzo (27)	.292/32/94/109/3	.278/31/94/101/17	.285/33/97/108/11	.279/31/91/98/7

 

Viewing this chart, does Rizzo truly belong a tier ahead of the rest? I don’t think so. Rizzo has shown signs that he could have a power breakout beyond his low-thirty homer totals (32 homers in 140 games at age 24), but he could also stay in the low thirties. With his average never reaching .300, and his run production staying what it was despite last year’s lineup, I fail to see the separation from the others.

Freeman is the same age, and there were legitimate reasons why his power breakout could stick. Encarnacion is going to a stronger lineup (Cleveland scored 18 more runs than Toronto), and his spray chart data shows that he is unlikely to lose more than a couple homers due to park factors. What Votto is lacking slightly in other categories, he makes up for in batting average. While Rizzo certainly has the most breakout potential of any of these players, has shown the best health, and is the only one who could find a .300/40/100/120 line if he broke out, his past production is too similar to the others for me to spend the extra money on him rather than spend it elsewhere.

Tier 4

I have Wil Myers, Chris Davis, and Matt Carpenter as my favorite tier 4 hitters. Davis played a large portion of last season with a dislocated thumb. He has shifted back and forth between being brilliant and of marginal value, but his last two marginal years had clear explanations (i.e. oblique injury / no therapeutic use exemption, and dislocated thumb). If he can remain healthy, I see a bounceback. Myers is as high as he is for the speed/power combo: in his first full, healthy MLB season, he put up 28 homers and 28 steals. A player who can put up that many steals while contributing elsewhere is highly valuable. I only have Carpenter’s value auction this high due to his positional eligibility at 3B, 2B, and 1B.

I have Santana closer to Abreu than my colleagues. While Santana will lag in average, Abreu’s homers have declined for three straight years. Santana posted more homers, higher run production, and more steals. With Abreu losing Adam Eaton and possibly Todd Frazier at some point this year, and Santana upgrading from Napoli to Encarnacion, I do not see much difference in their values despite their composite auction values being $4 apart.

Tier 5

Kendrys Morales is easily my favorite target of this group. You can read about in my upcoming feature on him. With the exception of Greg Bird, the others are trying to hold onto their fantasy value at this point.

I do like Holliday more than my peers. However, I will be keeping an eye on his playing time as Opening Day approaches, but I think his bat will fit nicely in Yankee Stadium and that he is due a bounceback if he stays healthy and plays every day.

Tier 6+

I like Eric Thames in certain formats as an upside play with a lower floor, and I plan to move him up in future rankings. With Byung Ho Park being designated for assignment, Kennys Vargas’ value could rise, and I plan to swap their ranks. Steve Pearce could be a nice piece in daily leagues with deep benches, as outlined in my piece here.

Stay tuned to our rankings’ updates as the season approaches. As more information pours in, the rankings will adjust.