DeAndre Hopkins is the ideal draft value for me this year.  One main reason is he will no longer be under the shadow of Andre Johnson and be the true #1 WR for the Houston Texans. With Johnson going to the Colts, I expect that Hopkins will see an increase in targets and overall numbers from last season (76 catches, 1,210 yards, 6 TD).  In 2014, Johnson, who will be replaced by Hopkins, was targeted 5th most in the league with a 147 targets.  I've got plenty more reasons why but first lets talk about Hopkins.

Hopkins was drafted 27th overall in the 2013 from Clemson and scouts classified at that time that he would be a 'significant' contributor in the NFL. Some could argue that last season was his breakout but this year his prospects are even higher without Johnson in the picture. One of Hopkins strengths, which was highlighted in Hard Knocks, is his footwork abilities. See this video below showing his footwork off the line of scrimmage vs DeAngelo Hall...just flat out sick!

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I anticipate he will utilize talent this season even more running the deeper routes that WR1 typically use to get separation from defenders. Another attribute I like about Hopkins is his consistent improvement from year to year. Over his 3-year career at Clemson he was able to get better every year and so far Hopkins is doing the same in the NFL. Last season Hopkins improved every statistical category and he still has plenty of meat on the bone this season.

 
Currently Hopkins's overall ADP is 29 (STD) and 12th WR overall which places him around the likes of TY Hilton, Mike Evans, & Emmanuel Sanders.  Personally I like Hopkins upside over all these players.  As I mentioned above Johnson has left and Hopkins will have no one to compete with like Sanders & Hilton will.  Two, Hopkins does not have an injury concerns like Sanders & Evans which both currently have hamstring injuries.  Both players have stated that they are 'not serious' but soft tissue injuries can linger for long periods of time. Lastly, while Hopkins 2014 statistically had the worse season of out he comparable WR's but he has a higher probability to increase his TD total whereas someone like Evans (12 TDs) is likely to decline.

The only concern with Hopkins value is his QB but lets look into that.  Recently, the Texans identified Brian Hoyer as the starting QB for week 1. Looking at last years numbers Hoyer utilized the deeper passes (10+ yards) on 45% of all his attempts which is an increase from the what Hopkins saw last year (39%).  In addition Hoyer had a better completion percentage (49% vs 39%) at 10+ yards than the Texans QBs last season.  While Hoyer is not Aaron Rodgers he is certainly an improvement in these categories and that only makes Hopkins more valuable.

So where should you target him in drafts?  If you are in a PPR league Hopkins value will be higher than his current ADP and I'd target him late second round early 3rd (in 12 team leagues). Here's a quote from Hopkins to help me sell this position, "I'm in a role where I should catch more balls...I'm going to demand the ball and make them think I'm the guy." This is what I like hearing from my WR especially given his history of constant improvement. If you are in a standard league, I would target Hopkins in the early to middle of the 3rd round. If Hopkins falls beyond the 3rd round grab him in the 4th as he could in the discussion as a top 8 WR and a solid WR1 on your fantasy roster.

 

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