Week 4 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football (Part 1)

Welcome to Week 4 of NFL and fantasy football action, RotoBallers. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 4 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should hopefully help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts. 

To read about the rest of this week’s NFL matchups, check out Start/Sit &  Matchups Analysis for Games 9-12. And of course you can always stop by the RotoBaller chat rooms for any live advice you may need.

 

Giants @ Redskins - Thursday 9/25 @ 8:25 EST

Matchups We Love

Victor Cruz - Man, it's been a wild ride for Cruz owners since the start of 2013. Not that one game signifies the bounce back into top 12 status, but at least this week Cruz has a great matchup against the Redskins. According to PFF, only one of the Redskins' starting defensive backs has a positive grade on the season so far, safety Ryan Clark. Eli Manning should be able to get him the ball.

Matchups We Hate

Alfred Morris - Washington's offensive line this season just hasn't been the same as it used to be under Shanahan. In his last two games, Morris has averaged fewer than four yards per carry, and he now goes up against what is currently graded as the best run defense in the NFL on PFF.

Notable Matchups

Giants Defense - The Giants have the best run defense on PFF, and are graded as the 10th-best pass rushers with the 16th-best passing defense, combining into the second-best overall defense in the league. Kirk Cousins is on a hot streak, but as most QB analysts will tell you, he's got a very risky style of quarterbacking where any week can be the one he has only a 50% completion rate and three picks. It's not a matchup I'd recommend, but if you're desperate enough, then beggars can't be choosers.

Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson - Up against a particularly good passing defense, Garcon isn't in a position to get robbed of a stat-line, but he isn't in a position to take advantage of it either. The same goes for Jackson. If you have better options, consider them.

Rashad Jennings - Jennings is coming off one of the best games in his career, but unfortunately for owners, it came at the expense of the third-worst run defense in the league. To make matters worse, the Redskins' run defense is currently the third-best in raw yardage, and the Giants' offensive line is in the middle of the pack when it comes to run blocking. I don't know if I'd look to bench Jennings, but expectations might have to be tempered.

 

Packers @ Bears - Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Martellus Bennett - The Packers' defense has a huge gaping hole in the center when it comes to pass defense, and that's where the Bears tend to use Bennett the most-- 12 of his receptions, 110 of his yards, and and three of his TDs have come from throws that would generally be covered by the LBs. Even better, none of the starting safeties or linebackers on this team have allowed less than an 85% catch rate.

Matt Forte - Speaking of weaknesses in the Packers' defense, the Packers are graded as the 24th run defense on PFF, with only one member of their front seven having a positive run defense grade. They've given up the third most rushing yards per game so far. That should give Matt Forte one of the easiest run defense matchups this week. And on top of the poor rushing defense, he too benefits from the lack of linebacker coverage.

Matchups We Hate

Green Bay Defense and Chicago Defense - I wouldn't want to be the owner forced to start either defense this week. This matchup is just begging to have over 24 points scored by each side.

Notable Players

Eddie Lacy - Lacy is finally out of the rough portion of his schedule and will be re-entering lineups everywhere. He's hitting his first run defense that isn't currently on the top five run defenses list right now, based on on raw yardage per game (NYJ #1, DET #2, and SEA #5), and he is a much better play this week than his last few weeks. I'd say if you can, acquire him now.

Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler - Neither quarterback is facing much resistance in this matchup, and there's nothing on paper to suggest either of them won't be amongst the top 10 scorers this week. This matchup also has a chance to turn into a point frenzy, since neither defense is better than average against the run or pass.

 

Bills @ Texans - Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Sammy Watkins - The Texans' pass coverage is currently fourth-best on PFF but 18th in raw yardage. However, they've barely been tested, having faced JAX, OAK and the NYG. Both starting corners have allowed completions on at least 80% of targets and are in the top 10 for most yards per coverage snap, meaning they give up more yards based on their playing time than all but a few corners in the league.

Matchups We Hate

Alfred Blue - The Texans are up against one of the best graded front seven's in the league this week. The Bills' run defense is currently the sixth-best in the league on raw rushing stats, and Blue didn't impress much in his first game.

Notable Players

C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson - Trying to guess the playing time split isn't easy. For what it's worth, Spiller has had more run snaps to Jackson with 38 vs. 25, but Jackson has more passing snaps than Spiller with 56 vs. 31. At least owners can take solace in the fact that they are going up against the fourth-worst run defense who has also surrendered the eighth-most rushing yards per game thus far. There's one thing that has to be mentioned though: the Buffalo Bills have had terrible run blocking and are currently ranked second-worst in the league.

 

Titans @ Colts - Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Ahmad Bradshaw - I want to put Trent Richardson here too, but the more I see him play the less chance there is of me feeling good about him. The Titans are currently one of the worst run defenses in the league, coming in the bottom ten on PFF for raw yardage. Unfortunately for Bradshaw, the Titans' linebackers are actually kind of good at stopping passes over the middle, so he might not benefit as much from his receiving abilities. At least the lack of front seven run-stopping talent will make up for that.

Delanie Walker - D'Qwell Jackson will be responsible for Walker most of the game, and he has allowed a 90% catch rate, 13.1 yards per catch, a TD, and a 152.3 QB rating when throwing into his coverage. If Jerrell Freeman continues to be out, he will be replaced by Josh McNary, who has allowed a 90% catch rate, 20.2 yards per catch with 174 yards coming after the catch and a QB rating of 118.8. I want to mention the safeties too, but at that point I'd just be hitting them while they're down. Simply put, there isn't a lot of good coverage against tight ends on the Colts.

Matchups We Hate

Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter - If Locker does end up missing this game, Wright and Hunter will be hard to play. The strength in the Colts' pass defense is in their cornerbacks, and if the Titans do have to turn to their backup QB, this is a group you might have to bench. Even if Locker does end up playing, I'd consider weighing your other options.

Notable Matchups

Andrew Luck - Luck defies all matchup logic by being the best player on the field at all times.

T.Y. Hilton - The Titans have both a strong pass rush and good coverage from their defensive backs. The Colts might look to gameplan screens and throw short passes to Hilton this game in order to try and open up space and avoid the rush. On the other hand, they might also blanket Hilton entirely. The boom-or-bust life of Hilton is in full throttle, as usual, despite having seen 28 targets in 3 games.

 

Panthers @ Ravens - Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Steve Smith - Up against his former team, that has just below average cornerback play (but above average safety play), Steve Smith Sr. should be looking at a high floor this week. Being at home only helps, and he'll surely have some extra motivation going up against the Panthers.

Cam Newton - The Ravens' passing defense has put out two bad performances out of the three games they've played so far, with only one of their two cornerbacks giving up less than 10 receptions on the season so far. As long as Webb is out, this is a defense to play quarterbacks against.

Kelvin Benjamin - Speaking of bad pass coverage, which receiver stands to get the most out of it this week? It should be one of Cam's biggest targets, Kelvin Benjamin.

Greg Olsen - Both of the starting middle linebackers, and one of the two starting safeties for the Ravens, are graded incredibly poorly on PFF for their pass coverage. They're giving up on average QB rating of over 90 per game, when passes are thrown into their coverage.

Matchups We Hate

Whichever Running Back is Currently Starting For The Panthers - As of right now it may be Darren Reaves, but DeAngelo Williams also returned to practice on Wednesday. Reaves' pro day numbers don't paint much of an athlete. The Panthers' run blocking has also been underwhelming, and the Ravens' run stopping has been very good from their front seven. I'm not going to expect a pretty picture to come from this game for the Panthers' running backs, but if Reaves ends up starting, I'll put it out there and say that there's plenty of opportunity for me to be wrong with a running back most people haven't ever seen play before. If Williams plays, he should receive a healthy amount of work as well.

Notable Players

Torrey Smith - Is this the week Torrey finally comes to play? I'd like to say there's even a chance, but his usage in the Ravens' passing game paints him as someone who is still going to remain a boom-or-bust player for the rest of the season. Torrey might be a desperate FLEX play at best right now.

 

Lions @ Jets - Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson - It's no secret that the Jets' secondary has been easily taken advantage of so far this season. That should only continue with this game.

Matchups We Hate

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell - This might be more for Bell than Bush due to the running styles, but both running backs are going up against the first ranked raw rushing yardage defense which has bottled up Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte in back-to-back weeks. Bush's pass catching should keep him from putting up less than five points, but reaching the double digits would require a touchdown for either of them.

Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson - I've been one of the biggest proponents of Ivory since the start of preseason, but this is one of those weeks where the defense is made to stop a player like Ivory... and Johnson too i guess. The Lions are 5th in run defense on PFF, and second in run defense in raw rushing yardage. That's right, these are the NFL's first and second best run defenses going up against each other.

Notable Players

Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley - Eric Decker, injured or not, and Jeremy Kerley (one of the Jets' long-time hidden gems) aren't coming into the best potential matchup. Both starting outside corners and starting safeties have been great in pass defense so far this season, helping the Lions be rated first on overall defense right now and third in passing defense.

 

Buccaneers @ Steelers - Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Ben Roethlisberger - The Buccaneers currently rank last in pass coverage and second to last in pass rushing on PFF. That's bad pass coverage, in addition to no QB pressure. I mean, what more could a quarterback really ask for?

Antonio Brown - Julio Jones just carved up the Buccaneers' defense, and now it should be Antonio Brown's turn to do the same. The Tampa Bay corners have given up 23 catches,  305 receiving yards, and 1 TD when the ball is thrown into their coverage thus far this season.

Le'Veon Bell - Another place where the Buccaneers struggle (and they struggle in a lot of places) is run defense. Bell will be the best back they've faced so far this year and he should make them pay.

Vincent Jackson - It's not all bad for the Buccaneers though. At least Vincent Jackson has a very good matchup in place this week, going up against two corners who also have struggled this season. Starting Pittsburgh CB Ike Taylor is likely out for the year, and now has starting slot corner William Gay moving into his spot on the outside. Although Gay played well last year, he was mainly a slot corner who will be facing a different challenge on the outside. Regardless, Gay isn't shadowing Jackson and Jackson should have the best opportunity to not bust this week.

Matchups We Hate

Buccaneers Defense and Steelers Defense - I don't really know how the Falcons managed to do what they did last week. That defense had been playing poorly the first two games, and then completely shut out the Buccaneers and made them look like fools. The Steelers' defense is similar. It's currently ranked 5th worst on PFF overall, and doesn't have any real strengths, it's best attribute being neutral at pass rushing. This matchup has legitimate shootout potential and it would be wise to stay away from either defense this week.

Notable Players

Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey - The Pittsburgh run defense is actually considerably weak, but unfortunately so is the run blocking for the entire Buccaneers' offensive line. I wouldn't say you should bench either, but it's hard to expect something good to come out of a group doing poorly - even against a poor run defense.

 

Raiders @ Dolphins (In London) - Sunday 9/28 @ 4:05 EST

Matchups We Love

Dolphins Defense - The Dolphins currently have the best overall graded defense on PFF, and have been particularly transcendent in their pass rushing. Rookie QB Derek Carr had enough trouble dealing with pressure against the Jets, and is about to head into another week where pressure is going to be the game. The Dolphins' defense is one of the top streamer picks this week.

Lamar Miller - Believe it or not, Lamar Miller is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. The Raiders have given up the second most rushing yards so far, and other than rookie Khalil Mack have been dreadful in run defense. This could finally be the Lamar Miller game everyone's been waiting a year and a half for.

Matchups We Hate

Raiders RBs - The Dolphins' run defense has been a lot better than the raw numbers would tell you, but even more importantly, the Raiders' run blocking has been horrible. Starting a running back from the Raiders this week is an act of desperation.

Notable Players

Mike Wallace - Wallace is facing decent but not great coverage in this game, and it would be pretty hard to predict how he could do. I don't think there's anything to say he shouldn't be starting this week, but he might not be more than a FLEX play this time around.