Week 9 Buy and Sell Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

All three of last week's buys pitched on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw and Jose Quintana pitched well. Gio Gonzalez...not so much. But hey, if Meat Loaf says two out of three ain't bad, who are we to argue?

Let's take a look at this week's SP buys and sells, dominated by the Central Division of each league.

Editor’s Note: to read about waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.

 

Starting Pitcher Buys for Week 9

Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians

Much like his teammates and previous buys Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Salazar has pitched better than his ERA indicates. Much of this is due to the Tribe's continued ineptitude in the field, though Salazar has also struggled a bit with keeping the ball in the park. Still, he's racking up strikeouts, limiting walks, and inducing more ground balls and weak contact than at any point in his young career. There may be some lingering distrust after Salazar failed to live up to the hype last season. Turn this to your advantage if possible.

 

Trevor May, Minnesota Twins 

The book on May has always been big stuff, iffy command. Since coming over to the Twins in the Ben Revere trade, however, May has made significant strides in cutting his walk rate. Given the organization's philosophy, perhaps that's not a big surprise. The rookie has managed to limit free passes without sacrificing too many whiffs, which is why his FIP is a nifty 3.09. His ERA sits two runs higher thanks to the dreaded low strand rate/high BABIP combo. As a flyball pitcher on a team with lousy outfield defense, maybe we shouldn't expect significant regression on the BABIP front. But May is almost certainly waiver wire fodder in your league, and he's pitched well enough to take a flyer on him.

 

James Shields, San Diego Padres

Shields's strikeouts are way up, and his walk rate is relatively close to his excellent career average. Those have kept his ERA well below his FIP, which is typically a sell indicator. So why buy? His HR/FB sits at a ridiculous 22.4%, nearly twice Shields' career mark. Hence the 2.91 xFIP. The big righty can't possibly continue allowing homers at this inflated rate. Granted, a few of those flies will end up turning into baserunners anyway because the Padres' outfield is a travesty, but you can't have everything in life. Trust the track record and the favorable home park here.

 

Starting Pitcher Sells for Week 9

Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

After four straight clunkers, DeSclafani has been solid in his last two turns. If you didn't jump ship already, now's a great time to do so. Though his 3.41 ERA is certainly playable in any format, the rookie simply doesn't miss enough bats to justify his middling walk rate. DeSclafani won't maintain a .257 BABIP forever, and once that regression happens, he'll quickly lose any value he's managed to accrue. Deal him before that happens.

 

A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates

After a terrible year in Philadelphia, Burnett took less money to return to the other side of the Keystone State. He's picked up right where he left off in Pittsburgh, riding solid numbers in strikeouts, walks, and grounders to a 5-1 record and 1.81 ERA. There are reasons to be a bit bearish, however, namely the unsustainable strand and homer rates. Burnett should continue to enjoy success in what will likely be his final season, but his value is probably at its peak right now.

 

Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers

Yes, Greinke leads the world in ERA at an absurd 1.48 mark. But other than striking out fewer batters, he's not doing anything differently from last year. Obviously Greinke is awesome, so that's not a bad thing. But the dead ball era ERA can't last unless you believe he'll continue to strand over 90 percent of baserunners or maintain a .220 BABIP. To paraphrase Ned Stark, regression is coming. You almost certainly won't regret holding on to Greinke, but if you need help elsewhere, he's a good candidate on whom to sell high.

 

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