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Sell Candidates for Week Nine
The San Francisco Giants are sizzling. Their 21-9 record in the month of May is good for second in the league behind the surging Twins. Many thought the Giants would suffer from one of their signature, alternating down years in 2015. On the contrary, the defending champs have managed to pin together a winning formula. Aside from the expected dominance of Madison Bumgarner, much of the club's early success comes courtesy of plate efficiency, especially from its core of infielders. A trio of surprising guys in the middle of the lineup (not talking about Buster Posey or Hunter Pence, either) are all hitting above expectations and, consequently, benefitting each others counting stats.
Right now, it's working out great for the Giants and fantasy owners alike. It will, eventually, all fall apart. Once one guy begins to regress back to his career norm, the rest will lose the situational advantage making them valuable in the first place. If you're an owner of a Giants infielder, cash out now!
Brandon Crawford (SS, SF)
After a solid April, Crawford has only gotten better in the month of May. He's now sporting a .299/.371/.506 line on the season with 34 RBI and 26 runs. For a guy who went undrafted in many formats, this consistent level of production is surprising, to say the least. It's especially interesting that he is able to tally so many RBI and runs batting in the six spot; yet, when the players surrounding him (Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan) are playing at such a high level, it starts to make more sense. When those players, Crawford included, start to regress back to their career averages, the cloak will be removed and those totals will begin to dwindle. Right now, Crawford is one of the top guys in the MLB at the SS position. Capitalize on that while you still can.
Joe Panik (2B, SF)
Panik's rookie campaign showed that the young second baseman knew how to reach base. But aside from that fundamental skill, there was not much else to say. This year, Panik has shown flashes of power capabilities, bringing his OPS from .711 to .823 in 2015. He's not smacking a ton of home runs (only 4). However, in San Francisco's symbiotic lineup, Panik is benefitting from the production around him, racking up the RBI and run counts. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come for Panik in his sophomore season. More likely, it's just a product of the club's overall proficiency in the month of May that's making everyone look better than they are. Consistency comes at a premium at the 2B position. Ship Panik off to someone who needs him now and get a more proven piece in return.
Brandon Belt (1B, SF)
Belt has improved in nearly every statistical category from his career averages, raising his OPS 172 points and is one pace to hit over 20 HR, doubling his output from any other year. Batting after Buster Posey and before a red-hot Brandon Crawford has done wonders for Belt's counting stats. At the age of 27, Belt is entering his prime and is rivaling the production of serious first basemen like Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto. When taking a closer look, Belt is outperforming his career averages in every statistical category and a healthy dose of regression is surely in store. Don't be fooled by the Giants surprising stint in May. All of these guys, or at least most of them, will come back to Earth sometime soon. Don't be stuck with any of them once that happens.
Buy Candidates for Week Nine
Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL)
Freeman has been languishing in a depleted Atlanta lineup, which ranks 27th in the MLB in slugging percentage. To be clear, Freeman has not necessarily disappointed this year, as he is still slashing .297/.363/.503 on the season with 29 RBI and 31 runs scored on the season. Yet, his 8 HR falls short of what one would expect from a second-round draft pick, especially considering the abundance of hard-hitting first basemen around the league. So, it's likely that Freeman-owners are somewhat underwhelmed by the young superstar's production thus far. That being said, it's unlikely that owners will be keen on parting with him for a very low price. He's heating up right now, as he's hit 3 HR with 6 RBI in his last four games. See if you can snag Freeman for a discount now before he becomes the player we all expected him to be in 2015.
Adrian Beltre (3B, TEX)
The future Hall of Famer will be out of baseball for at least 2 weeks with a broken thumb, leaving a void for 3B phenom Joey Gallo to see a couple of weeks in the Majors. Beltre is one of the toughest guys in the league and is known to play through a litany of injuries in the past. Any injury that causes him to miss extended time must be somewhat serious. There's a ton of selling points to push upon Beltre owners right now: he's getting old, he's injured, his batting average (.257) is at its lowest since 2005 and his job security is being threatened by the next generation of sluggers. All of these factors spell out a nice discount for a Beltre trade right now. In reality, it's likely that Beltre will come back with a vengeance and witness a profitable return to the rejuvenated Texas lineup. Try to swipe Beltre while the future is murky and enjoy the rewards from one of the best hitters in the game today.
Ian Kinsler (2B, DET)
Kinsler finally hit his first home run of the year on Saturday, breaking a 50-game power outage. The .367 slugging percentage in 2015 is disappointing to say the least, as the four-time All-Star has a career mark of .446. There is no reason to expect that Kinsler's slump will continue at this dismal rate. His BA (.271) and OBP (.350) are right in line with his career averages and he enjoys a premium position in a loaded Tigers lineup. Although Kinsler may not be a 20 HR 20 SB threat this year, 10/15 is still within reach and he will definitely enjoy increased RBI and R totals if he continues to get on base. As of right now, he has fallen out of the elite category of second basemen. Now seems like the perfect time to buy in to the embattled star and reap the benefits later once the high-powered roster in Detroit starts to heat up.
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