Week 7 NFL Recap: Injuries, Breakout Performers & Game by Game Analysis

The Injury Carnage Returns For Week 7

If Week 7 of the 2014 NFL season does not convince you that the classic fantasy strategy of drafting two running backs with your first two picks is as over as The Sopranos (Forgetting Sarah Marshall reference, thank you) then I don’t know what will. Sure you might have gotten lucky and hit twice with some sort of Marshawn Lynch / Le’Veon Bell combination, but if you look around at the other backs in those rounds, chances are you whiffed.

If you’re still fairly set in your ways, allow me to make one last effort to try and pull you away from the dark side with the following exercise: pull up a list of your fantasy site’s Average Draft Position among running backs for 2014 and compare that list with the scoring leaders for the season within the position. You should notice that only about 50% of the players drafted within the top 20 at RBs are on both lists. That means you only had about a 50% shot at hitting on both of your running backs if you took two in the first two rounds.

At that rate you might as well take your league’s entry fee, head to your local casino, and put it on red or black and call it fantasy gambling. Disclaimer: the reason I didn’t post the lists myself is because people use different fantasy sites, scoring systems, and formats, thus skewing the names themselves but the overarching premise still applies.

 

The Year Of The Running Back

Some of you may be countering this in your head by stating the running backs who have succumbed to injury shouldn’t count since injuries can happen to anyone. While that is true, it is also true that running back is the most injury prone position in NFL as it relates to fantasy. Sure the injury bug might have also bitten your team if you took Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, or Jimmy Graham with one of your first two picks, but those are three of the most consistent players in the NFL as it is. Injuries aside, once they’re on the field you know you’re going to get superstar performances.

Running back has an inconsistency built into the position that doesn’t exist at the top level in other positions independent of injury concerns. There’s just too many variables to put so much stock into grabbing two of them right off the bat. The reason I’m bringing up draft strategy in October is because you’re about to see a lot of names at running back that will be surprises in either the “drop” or “must-start” category once we dive into the game recaps. At this point, that’s all they are, names.

Performance, role, and health are all far more important at this point in the season so it’s better to just detach yourself from the instinct of “but he’s so and so” or “but who is this guy?” Being a starting running back in the NFL doesn’t mean what it used to as far as fantasy is concerned. And in some cases, the players we’re about to discuss aren’t even starter-caliber anyway.

 

Week 7 Recap - Impact Players & Game by Game Analysis

Jets @ Patriots (with some Percy Harvin trade chatter)

Right off the bat we have two running backs to discuss in Chris Ivory and Shane Vereen of the Jets and Patriots respectively. In the case of Ivory, the Jets absolutely gutted the Patriots on the ground in Thursday night’s surprisingly close contest with Ivory being the main beneficiary. It certainly helps that Chris Johnson has been terrible for most of the year and shouldn’t be rostered anymore. Ivory is clearly the better back on the team and is getting the workload to prove it.

Problem is, Ivory has had health concerns in the past so the only real reason to own CJ0K is as a potential handcuff to Ivory. The bigger piece of news for the Jets is the acquisition of wide receiver Percy Harvin from the Seattle Seahawks. This should prove to be a huge boost for the Jets offense as a whole, and definitely increases Harvin’s value, but I wouldn’t get too crazy. The Jets still have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league, so despite Harvin’s versatility I wouldn’t suddenly jump to the notion that his draft day value has returned.

The addition of Harvin should help both his own value as well as Eric Decker’s since defenses will have to hone in on the explosive Harvin. He wasn’t being used the way many had hoped he would be in Seattle, so hopefully the Jets find a way to get him more involved. But then again, they’re still the Jets. Now back to Shane Vereen; Vereen became a hot commodity once it was revealed that Stevan Ridley would miss the remainder of the season last week. At least for one game, Vereen was the primary back for the Patriots but only had 43 rushing yards. His true value is in PPR (point per reception) leagues where he reeled in five catches for 71 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots have always been flaky at best when it comes to trusting in one sole RB, but them leaning so heavily on Vereen is a positive sign.

Keep in mind the Jets dominated the clock in this game so there really wasn’t much time for the Patriots to get cute on offense by switching backs in and out. The last thing to touch upon in this game is the question of “is Tom Brady back?” I mentioned last week that between Brady and Cam Newton bouncing back, I thought Brady would have the easier road to a top 10 QB in the interim. Also that I bought more into Cam long-term, and I stand by that statement, although it is now a lot closer than I initially thought. With the Patriots having two tasty matchups with the Bears and Broncos in the next two weeks, the smartest strategy would be to sell high on Brady right after it’s believed he’s back to his old ways.

 

Bengals @ Colts

The Bengals have quickly become one of the most frustrating teams to monitor for fantasy purposes. Mohamed Sanu quickly catapulted into must-start territory after A.J. Green went down and it was revealed that Marvin Jones would not return this season, but then he ends up with just three receptions for 54 yards against the Colts. The running game was even worse with Giovani Bernard ending the day with just 17 rushing yards.

It’s probably best to just throw this game out of the window for the Bengals since shutouts are so few and far between. Next week’s matchup won’t get any easier with a big divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens, but right after that they get the Jaguars and Browns so hang tight Bengal owners. Trent Richardson left this game with a hamstring injury, which left Ahmad Bradshaw to tear it up once again for the Colts. Bradshaw ended the day with 88 total yards and two touchdowns.

If Richardson were to miss any significant amount of time, Bradshaw would easily become a top 12-15 play if he hasn’t been already. Despite Richardson actually running well in this game, Bradshaw has been the better back and it hasn’t been very close. I’ve seen some suggest that Bradshaw might be a good sell-high candidate, but I think we have to wait and see the severity of Richardson’s injury before lumping him into that category. Not much else to report for the Colts in this game other than Andrew Luck and T.Y Hilton are studs.

 

Dolphins @ Bears

I racked my brain trying to come up with something insightful to discuss on the Miami side of the ball and came up empty. You’re starting Lamar Miller every week, and Mike Wallace remains a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 option. Nothing else to see here folks. The more pertinent analysis lies within the Chicago roster although most it revolves around the phrase “don’t panic.” Listen, if you own any of the top Chicago Bears, you’re starting them without question.

The thing is, they’re kind of becoming inconsistent in the sense that when one player has a big game, the others seem to suffer and that’s okay. Matt Forte ended the day with 119 total yards and two touchdowns while Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, and Alshon Jeffery all had somewhat disappointing days. Call it gameplan, a bad matchup, or put some stock into Marshall calling out his teammates in the post-game interview, but it is what it is. Some weeks one guy will go off and the rest will suffer. Very rarely will all four guys put up big numbers in the same week. They’re all top-notch players at their position so it’s something you’re just going to have to accept.

 

Falcons @ Ravens

What happened to the Falcons potent offense? The team was shutout for a large portion of this game until a late touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to Roddy White. It appeared the Ravens made a conscious effort to take Julio Jones out of the game, and with good reason, as he’s capable of going off like crazy any given week.

Matt Ryan was a popular sell-high candidate a few weeks ago given his strong start. But if you’ve managed to scrape together a few wins during his recent struggles, take a gander at their schedule and note that after their tough matchup in London against the Lions and their bye in week 9, the Falcons face the Buccaneers, Panthers, Browns, Cardinals, Packers and Steelers. Tasty.

If you can weather the storm and stay competitive with Ryan as your QB through Week 9, you just might find yourself in good shape once those favorable matchups start coming. The last thing to note on the Falcons is that unless you actually need to start Steven Jackson, feel free to drop him. He hasn’t been truly fantasy relevant in three seasons now and that’s not changing any time soon. A running back who is fantasy relevant, however, is Baltimore starter Justin Forsett. Notice how I said starter this week instead of referring to this backfield as a three-headed monster.

Forsett received 23 carries with Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro combining for just 12. This competition is officially over; Forsett is the running back to own and start every week in Baltimore. You can safely drop the other two, and lock Forsett in your lineups. Owen Daniels is showing us what Dennis Pitta could have been at the tight end position and is a solid add if you’re hurting at TE.

 

Browns @ Jaguars

In a game where everyone thought Ben Tate would go off, he ended up only having 36 rushing yards on 16 carries. I think this game was a case of the Jaguars being fed up with being winless and finally showing up to play, whereas the Browns aren’t as good as their record indicates. Cleveland wide receiver Andrew Hawkins put up 112 yards on five catches and continues to be a solid PPR or three-wide receiver league play. He’s no fantasy superstar, but he’s certainly rosterable and could start for your team depending on the depth of your league.

Perhaps the biggest name on the waiver wire this week is new Jaguars starting running back Denard Robinson. Robinson did what no other Jaguars running back had been able to do up until this point: actually run the football. He racked up 127 yards and found the end zone in this game which should put a firm grip on the starting gig. Robinson is no sure thing to keep up this pace, but given how terrible RBs have been this year, (drink) he’s a must add and could end up in your lineup if you’re thin at the position. That said, it should be pointed out that for the first six weeks of the season nobody was able to run the ball for the Jags, so I wouldn’t drop a proven commodity for him.

 

Saints @ Lions

Many expected this game to be close, and close it was. This game saw the return of Saints running back Mark Ingram who was basically invisible out there, but that’s to be expected for a guy just coming back from an injury and on a team that uses multiple running backs. Pierre Thomas left this game with a shoulder injury, making this situation even more complicated. I would avoid starting any of these guys if at all possible until it becomes more apparent who is fully healthy and which guy has which role.

Drew Brees put up big numbers here, which resulted in both Marques Colston and Kenny Stills having over 100 yards each. I wouldn’t read too much into either performance as Jimmy Graham was still nursing a shoulder injury of his own in this game, creating the opportunity for other players to become more involved. Brandin Cooks remains second in total targets for the Saints behind Jimmy Graham, so he’s still the receiver I prefer among the three.

The Joique Bell / Reggie Bush drama continued for the Lions as Bush’s ankle hobbled him in this game. The severity of his injury is unknown at the moment, but Bell obviously gets a boost should Bush miss any time. Golden Tate exploded once again in the absence of Calvin Johnson, and is a lock as a top 12-15 receiver for as long as Megatron is out. Once Calvin returns, however, it’s going to take a game or two to see what Tate’s role will be going forward. He may have earned himself some more targets, but he could also just end up taking a back seat considering the other guy is nicknamed after a Transformer. Tate is another interesting sell-high candidate as his value won’t be any greater than it is right now.

 

Panthers @ Packers

Unless you have some serious depth at wide receiver, Kelvin Benjamin is a must-start every week. He made some ridiculous catches in this game despite the Panthers offense struggling for most of it. Many expected an even bigger showing out of Benjamin, given how banged up the Green Bay secondary is, but the Packers simply swarmed Cam Newton at every opportunity.

I still believe Cam is back on track to being a top 10 fantasy QB, and he has a favorable schedule once they get past the Seahawks in Week 8. I’m sticking with Cam as a starter going forward, although it might be wise to check the waiver wire to see who else is available when Carolina plays Seattle next week. I hammered the notion of avoiding the Panthers run game at all costs since August, and I’m not backing down from that despite the fact that Jonathan Stewart is the last man standing. It doesn’t matter-- a starting RB in the NFL just doesn’t mean what it used to, and Stewart is a prime example of that (drink).

What would you like me to tell you about the Packers? Start 'em if you got 'em. That’s all you need to know, other than Eddie Lacy owners should stash James Starks. In fact, Starks might actually be worth an add even if you don’t own Lacy. The touches are closer than many realize as the Packers clearly like using both of them.

 

Vikings @ Bills

Drop Matt Asiata. The Jerick McKinnon show has begun and it’s going to be fun, especially with whatever news comes out of the whole Adrian Peterson mess. It’s way too early to speculate on who the running back starter is next year, but it’s clear that for the remainder of 2014 it’s McKinnon job and it’s not even close. McKinnon ended the day with 103 rushing yards on 19 rushes (against the Lions elite defense) while Asiata only got seven touches. McKinnon is a lock to be a top 15 RB the rest of the way with that kind of usage and performance, so stick him your lineup if you’re looking for a second RB.

The bigger news coming out of this game is the absolute decimation to the Buffalo running game. Both my guy Fred Jackson and not my guy C.J. Spiller went down with injuries. Jackson suffered a groin injury that could sideline him for up to a month, while Spiller is presumed to be out for the season with a broken collarbone. That left Anthony Dixon as the primary back for the remainder of the game, and he should be added as such.

Don’t sleep on Bryce Brown, though. Although he was inactive for this game, Brown is a talented running back and the Bills like to use two backs within a game. Don’t be surprised if this develops into a timeshare, or if Brown even overtakes the starting position. I think both guys should be added this week, but neither should be in your lineup if you can avoid it until we see what their usage is. Kyle Orton has proven to be the best thing to happen to Sammy Watkins in his rookie season thus far. Watkins ended the day with 122 yards and two touchdowns, and should easily be a low-end WR2 the rest of the way. The window for buying low on Watkins has seemingly been slammed shut.

 

Titans @ Redskins

Want another name at running back you can drop? Bishop Sankey. I had stated that as long as Shonn Greene was in the picture, Sankey’s value was pretty much moot given the timeshare situation. Then once Greene went down with an injury, it appeared Sankey would finally get an opportunity as the Titans primary back. With Greene missing two games and Sankey doing virtually nothing with it, it’s time to just bail completely in non-keeper leagues. He had 16 rushing attempts for 56 yards in this game. Meh.

You can find that practically anywhere on your roster or on the waiver wire. I would gladly drop Sankey for the likes of Jerick McKinnon or Tre Mason (who we’ll get to in a bit). Speaking of cutting ties, the Redskins decided to bench Kirk Cousins for Colt McCoy who immediately threw a touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon.

Any shot Cousins had at earning the starting gig or being traded elsewhere is now zilch. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once Robert Griffin III comes back in terms of the passing game, but for now the receiving options remain the same: the starting tight end has value in Washington, Garcon is the bigger PPR threat, and DeSean Jackson is the big-play guy. Not much else to report here.

 

Seahawks @ Rams (And more Percy Harvin trade chatter)

So Tre Mason. Mason comes into this game and ends up with 18 rushes for 85 yards and a touchdown, leaving Zac Stacy to end up with no touches whatsoever. Talk about an unexpected mess. Many expected one of two scenarios for the St. Louis backfield. Scenario 1) Zac Stacy is “the guy” in St. Louis and will receive the bulk of the carries. Scenario 2) Benny Cunningham will eat into Stacy’s touches, creating more of a timeshare approach.

There were very few that anticipated a third scenario that saw Tre Mason ending up being the most productive back in a game against the defending Super Bowl champions. Mason should absolutely be added, especially in keeper leagues, but don’t be surprised if Cunningham still gets a decent amount of work. Cunningham had five receptions for 46 yards here which says a lot about each running back's usage. That also tells us that, yes, Zac Stacy should be dropped if you haven’t already done so. Zero touches is zero touches. Later, Zac.

The only relevant piece of business for the Seahawks in this game, aside from the fact that they lost of course, is the Percy Harvin trade. That trade immediately makes Doug Baldwin a must add, and depending on your league format, a must start. Baldwin is a very different player than Harvin, such that Harvin is an explosive speed threat where as Baldwin is a better PPR play given his new role. If you’re in a three wide receiver leagueor deeper, Baldwin is automatically WR3 relevant and should be added as such. Don’t fret on Marshawn Lynch’s lackluster day as he’s still the only back on the team worth anything.

 

Chiefs @ Chargers

A trendy upset pick among betters, the Chiefs pulled this game off late in the fourth quarter on the heels of another solid day from Jamaal Charles. He’s back to being himself, but be sure to handcuff him with Knile Davis. Brandon Oliver remains the primary back for San Diego, at least until Ryan Mathews returns, at which point this will once again end up being a mess.

These running back committees are very frustrating so be sure to check out weekly running back depth charts. If you own Oliver, roll with him for as long as Mathews is out. Keenan Allen had a decent game here with six receptions for 58 yards, but he’s nowhere close to last year’s breakout season. If you can get anything, anything at all valuable for Allen, trade him. Beyond that, you probably just have to deal with his disappointing season, or better yet leave him on your bench for someone better until he proves his worth. I don’t think you can drop him unless there’s someone like Odell Beckham Jr. available in your league, so it’s best to just hang on and hope for the best.

 

Cardinals @ Raiders

I may have lost one of my favorites in Fred Jackson, but Andre Ellington is still going strong. Ellington had a huge day with 160 total yards, but unfortunately couldn’t find the end zone. That’s fine as you’ll happily take the points he got you via yardage and receptions. It appears that Stepfan Taylor is the clear handcuff to Ellington if you’re looking for some insurance. As for the passing game, Carson Palmer had another solid day here and spread the ball around with Michael Floyd reeling in a touchdown.

Here’s another big name you can safely drop in standard leagues: Larry Fitzgerald. He might have one or two big games left in him this season, but beyond that he’s just not getting the targets and workload anymore. Floyd is clearly Palmer’s preferred target. Fitzgerald has more value in deeper or PPR leagues, but in a standard league you can probably find someone having a better season or with higher upside than Fitzgerald. The Raiders remain a big fat question mark for fantasy owners as wide receiver Andre Holmes came back down to earth this week. Pretty much everyone on the Oakland roster is nothing more than a bye-week fill in at this point, except for maybe Darren McFadden in deeper PPR leagues.

 

Giants @ Cowboys

I debated about whether or not to include Andre Williams in this week's drop-heavy column, but ultimately decided against it. Starter Rashad Jennings has always had injury woes and the Giants do like to run the football. Williams has also shown that he does have talent and can be productive at times, so I’m willing to hang on to him for now. That being said, he doesn’t need to be in your lineup if Jennings is still sitting out after the Giants bye in week 8.

Rueben Randle ended up being the primary beneficiary to Victor Cruz’s season ending injury, but Odell Beckham remains a must-add. Both of these guys have serious talent, especially Beckham, so grab him if he's still somehow available on your league's waiver wire before it’s too late. If you were watching this game, and saw DeMarco Murray roll his ankle and thought “welp, that’s the end of his unprecedented run”, you weren’t alone. I stand by my statement that Murray will get hurt as he always does, so cash in those chips while you still can. I think this goes without saying but Jason Witten is droppable as well. He’s fallen off the cliff as far as tight ends are concerned.

 

49ers @ Broncos

In a game where Peyton Manning passed Brett Favre’s touchdown record, Demaryius Thomas went bananas to the tune of 171 yards and two touchdowns. Julius Thomas finally cooled off as some thought he would, and Wes Welker found the end zone. But the biggest takeaway from this game was the performance of Ronnie Hillman. With Montee Ball out for an unknown amount of time, Hillman has stepped up and put up big numbers immediately.

Ball has managed to be the only starting running back to not be fantasy productive with Peyton Manning under center. This renders him, you guessed it, droppable. This job is now Hillman’s to lose given his performance as of late. I could see a scenario where the Broncos mix up their backs from drive to drive. But with how often Peyton runs the no huddle, Hillman isn’t leaving the field all that much upon Ball’s return. It’s unfortunate but such is the nature of football.

The 49ers receiving corps remains a total crapshoot with Stevie Johnson reeling in five receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown here. Oh well I guess? Michael Crabtree has been super inconsistent this year, and I’m not opposed to dropping him in shallow standard leagues either. The talent and upside is there, but the points just aren't there week to week. Lastly, I think it’s time to retire my Frank “Goonies Never Say Die” Gore nickname. Gore finally looks done out there; it was only a matter of time.

 

So that concludes an extremely drop-heavy edition of my weekly NFL recap. Don’t hold on too tight, it’s okay to let go sometimes. We’re almost halfway through the NFL season and players are who they are at this point. No need in forcing yourself to keep them on your roster, so make the moves your need to win every week.

 

Disagree with a guy I deemed droppable? Want more details or have an unrelated fantasy question? Follow me on Twitter @Frankie_Soler and let me know.