RADIO
Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 7 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.
Below, you will find part one of our Week 7 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
One important note to keep in mind this week - The Bills/Jags game is in London with a 9:30 AM EST start time. If you have any questionable players such as T.J. Yeldon, you'll need to double-check their status before the game starts. Be sure to check out part two of this week's early game matchups as well.
Bills @ Jaguars - Sunday 10/25 @ 9:30 AM EST
Matchups We Love:
Lesean McCoy, RB, Bills - McCoy came back earlier than expected in Week 6 and played pretty well, posting 94 total yards and a score. The Jaguars looked pretty strong against the run in three of their first four games, but in the last two weeks they've been blasted by Doug Martin and Arian Foster.McCoy should have a pretty easy time getting RB1 numbers here.
Charles Clay, TE, Bills - It looks like Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin will miss this game, leaving Charles Clay as the Bills' top pass-catcher in Week 7. Clay managed a 9-62 line with E.J. Manuel against the Bengals, so I have no concerns here.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars - I keep thinking the Bills defense should be better than it is, but at this point I have to accept they are nothing more than average against the pass. The Bills have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in five of six games. They’ve faced some great QBs but that stat also includes Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning. At this point, Bortles is at least on par with them if not better.
Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars - After a quiet first game, Thomas broke out in a big way in Week 6. He was Bortles’ most targeted receiver and managed to find the end zone. He did drop a couple passes according to PFF, and is likely still shaking off the rust. As long as Thomas can stay healthy, he will be a big part of this offense.
Matchups We Hate:
T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars - Yeldon missed last week’s game and at this point it’s unclear whether he will be good to go for Week 7. With just 3.6 YPC and a single touchdown this year, It’s hard to see Yeldon having a good game here. I consider him a flex because of the touches he’ll get if he plays, but that’s it.
Notable Players:
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars - The Bills seem surprisingly good at handling top WRs, as they've held Odell Beckham and A.J. Green in check the last two weeks. Robinson is also dealing with a leg contusion which may hamper him slightly this week, but I still expect WR2 numbers.
Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars - Hurns has perhaps been overshadowed by Robinson, but he has had a very good season himself. I think he can once again put up WR2 numbers here. The Bills allow the 10th-most points to WRs and since I’m not expecting a huge day from Robinson, I definitely expect Hurns to have a solid fantasy game.
Robert Woods & Chris Hogan, WRs, Bills - Assuming Harvin and Watkins are indeed out, these two guys are your WR starters. Even in deeper leagues they are likely available, and if you are in dire need of a WR this week with byes and injuries, one of these two could certainly prove valuable. That said, with E.J. Manuel now confirmed as starter you would have to be really desperate.
Buccaneers @ Redskins - Sunday 10/25 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Doug Martin, RB, Bucs - The Redskins started the season off strong against RBs but that has changed. They were destroyed by both Devonta Freeman and Chris Ivory the past two weeks and I think the key to the Bucs success is to have Doug Martin do the same. Based on what we’ve seen, expect RB1 numbers from him.
Pierre Garcon & Jamison Crowder, WR, Redskins - The Buccaneers are giving up the 5th-most points to opposing WRs. This should be good for both Garcon and Crowder who are averaging at least eight targets each over the past three games. Crowder has actually been the more successful of the two over that span with more targets, a higher catch rate and more yards, but Garcon is the one with the two touchdowns. I think with Desean Jackson out again both can approach low-end WR2 / flex numbers in PPR formats.
Matchups We Hate:
Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins - It looks like Reed may return this week but I will have him outside my top 12 at the position. The Buccaneers have been very good against tight ends and that includes Greg Olsen and Julius Thomas (although only in his first game off injury). Reed is a target hog as far as tight ends go so if you need a bye week fill-in, he is available in plenty of leagues.
Notable Players:
Mike Evans & Vincent Jackson, WRs, Bucs - These two have both had a 100-yard game each but have been big disappointments otherwise. Despite injuries to the Redskins top two CBs, they have managed to scrap their way into respectable coverage most weeks. It’s certainly still a good matchup for Evans and VJax but CB Bashaud Breeland has really played well. Despite that I remain cautiously optimistic towards Evans. I have him in WR2 territory this week, if he doesn’t deliver I’m done with him. I like VJax as a high-end flex.
Alfred Morris & Matt Jones, RBs, Redskins - Not a bad matchup, but this is one of the worst RB situations in the league. Both guys are barely rosterable and definitely not startable.
Falcons @ Titans - Sunday 10/25 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons - Freeman has become, dare I say it, matchup-proof. His recent four-game stretch justifies that statement. He’ll have to cool down at some point, but for now he is a must-start regardless of matchup.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - Julio has lost some targets as a result of Freeman’s dominance. He averaged 14 targets in the first three games and that has gone down to just eight over the last three games. however, this remains a great matchup and I expect WR1 numbers from Julio.
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans - Walker is the safest play in the Titans offense, although that isn’t saying much. A healthy amount of targets has allowed him to put up 7-68 and 8-97 lines in two of the last three games. He'll be a great PPR play and top ten in all formats.
Matchups We Hate:
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans - Wright just isn’t getting the targets I expected in this offense. He does have two very good games already but he also has three games with 34 or fewer yards. The Falcons allow the fourth-fewest points to WRs so I have a very hard time seeing this as one of the good games for Wright. Long-term I am hopeful Wright brings some value, because unless Dorial Green-Beckham takes a big step forward, Wright is the only real talent they have at WR.
Notable Players:
Roddy White & Leonard Hankerson, WRs, Falcons - The Falcons desperately want Hankerson to become a thing because he has no problems getting open. The problem is he is very Rueben Randle-esque once the ball comes his way. It just seems like he makes dumb mistake after dumb mistake. Hankerson leads the league in drops with seven according to PFF. Meanwhile Roddy White can’t get open at all and somehow has a lower catch percentage than Hank despite 0 drops. Hankerson should still be rostered but not started right now. White should not be owned at this point, as much as I hate to say it.
Titans RBs - In the past two games, the Titans have been trying very hard to find a spark by using all three of their backs regularly. Unfortunately none of the three have been very productive at all. Dexter McCluster leads the pack with 43 rushing yards over that span while Antonio Andrews leads with 47 receiving yards. None of these guys are startable in anything but the deepest of leagues.
Jacob Tamme, TE, Falcons - Tamme has been surprisingly involved on offense. He has games of 77 and 94 yards on the season, both of which rank in his career top five. I still have a hard time seeing him staying relevant because he has only cracked 500 yards in a season twice and that was with Peyton Manning at his peak. Still, the Titans allow the sixth-most points to tight ends, so if you need a flier he’s there.
Saints @ Colts - Sunday 10/25 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts - This is expected to be a very high-scoring game (backed up by it having the highest over/under of the week at 52) which is good news for both quarterbacks. Despite big numbers last week, I wouldn’t actually say Luck looked like himself. It took him 50 passes to get to 312 yards. His 6.24 yards per pass attempt was less than ideal (23rd of 29 QBs last week). I still expect a similar day this week regardless of how he looked--300+ yards with multiple touchdown passes. This offense is built to pass and they will definitely do that vs Saints.
Drew Brees, QB, Saints - Although Brees only threw one touchdown pass last week I thought he played very well. Despite early concerns about his decline, Brees is continuing to play like his old self following a week missed due to a shoulder injury. Over the last three games he has a 72.% completion rate while averaging 335 yards passing with just one interception total. Expect top-five numbers this week.
Frank Gore, RB, Colts - The Saints have given up over 100 running back rushing yards in five of six games so far to go along with five rushing touchdowns. Sure Ahmad Bradshaw is in the mix now, but I don’t think he gets more than a few touches. Expect Gore to continue what he’s been doing, which is around 75-100 rushing yards with a good chance for a score.
Matchups We Hate:
Dwayne Allen & Coby Fleener, TE, Colts - The Saints actually give up a ton of points to tight ends but over the past two weeks (after Allen returned from injury) these two players have played almost an identical number of snaps, and neither has exceeded 23 receiving yards in a game. Avoid the situation for now.
Notable Players:
T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, WRs, Colts - I like both, but I think the presence of two good receivers prevents me from loving either. The Saints are not the great matchup they used to be for wide receivers - they have not allowed more than one WR score in a game yet. I prefer Hilton, but both are in my top 15.
Andre Johnson, WR, Colts - After his revenge game on the Texans, Andre Johnson slipped back into irrelevance. With no more than 35 yards in all but one game, he can’t be started and probably shouldn't be owned.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints - Cooks has been a disappointment, but if Brees keeps throwing for 300 yards you have to believe his numbers will improve. I still prefer him over Willie Snead. as Cooks is still the target leader on this team. You also can't ignore some of the great qualities he exhibited last year as a rookie.
Willie Snead, WR, Saints - Despite what I said I above I do like Snead. He leads the Saints WRs in yards, catch percentage and missed tackles per PFF. I'm still not sure he can be a consistent fantasy contributor, as he had just 55 receiving yards last week (which still led the WRs). I think he is a low-end WR2 this week.
Benjamin Watson, TE, Saints - Watson is a 35-year-old tight end who has never finished better than TE10 in a season. There's no way he repeats last week's performance, but in deeper leagues he might still merit a start if you're short on options.
Vikings @ Lions - Sunday 10/25 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings - The Lions give up the seventh-most points to running backs. Adrian Peterson already put up 192 yards from scrimmage against this team. Expect another big day.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings - This is a mild love because Rudolph is mostly touchdown or bust, but it’s a good matchup all the same. The Lions have given up touchdowns to tight ends in four of six games so far. It would seem like Rudolph has a solid chance to score, but if he doesn’t he is unlikely to score more than five fantasy points.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Vikings - Calvin Johnson made it through an incredibly tough stretch of games, and sure enough he was able to bounce back with 166 yards and a score in Week 6. In the first matchup with the Vikings, he put up a 10-83-1 line. I think he can come close to that again.
Matchups We Hate:
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions - After being destroyed by Carlos Hyde in Week 1, the Vikings have had a very good run defense. Ameer Abdullah managed just 18 yards on seven touches in their first meeting. Even though he should get 10+ carries with Zach Zenner now out, I can’t imagine starting him here.
Notable Players:
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - Stafford is coming off a huge game but it would be foolish to expect a repeat of that performance. Still, he did play well in the first matchup of these two teams and I think he can approach the top 12 this week.
Golden Tate, WR, Lions - Tate sees enough targets to be a decent PPR WR2 play in any given week. In standard he is merely a flex option, although he did have a respectable 6-80 line against the Vikings earlier this season.
Eric Ebron, TE, Lions - It looks like Ebron will make his return this week after missing a couple games. He is outside of my top 12 but he is not a bad start off the waiver wire.
Theo Riddick, RB, Lions - He’s definitely capable of being a PPR flex with at least eight PPR points in every game so far. However he can’t really do any damage as a runner. His seven rush attempts for 28 yards last week were both a career high.
Mike Wallace & Stefon Diggs, WRs, Vikings - It looks like Diggs has put himself in the starter’s role alongside Wallace. Diggs has burst onto the scene with two impressive games to start his career. It’s hard to say if it will continue but I definitely think he is capable of getting into lineups this week. I have both as WR3/flex players here.
Steelers @ Chiefs - Sunday 10/25 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers - The speedster picked up where he left off last year in Week 6, scoring on a huge play. I’ve been a bit fearful of his touchdown and big-play dependency but at this point I am accepting it. He has scored in eight of 12 career games (including one playoff game that he scored in). If he doesn’t score it probably means he didn’t put up a whole lot of yards - he has never had more than 53 yards in those four scoreless games. At this point though, I’m saying enjoy the ride with all of its ups and downs and get Bryant in your lineup. The boom is worth the risk of the bust.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs - Maclin is currently going through the concussion protocol but the Chiefs expect him to play this week, and I like him if he does. Even though he only got four targets last week, I think this offense will have to lean on him without Jamaal Charles. In the three games prior to Week 6, Maclin had at least 11 targets and 85 yards in all of them.
Matchups We Hate:
Charcandrick West & Knile Davis, RBs, Chiefs - The Steelers are one of just two teams to not allow an RB to score this season. After the completely unimpressive performance these two put up last week there is no chance I’m touching them here.
Notable Players:
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers - The Chiefs run defense is actually very solid. The four RB rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed have all come in one game at the hands of the Bengals. Still, Bell is a stud enough and definitely matchup-proof. His 88-yard game last week without a score is about as bad as it gets.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - Kelce is the TE5 on the season but he still hasn’t scored since Week 1. The Steelers are allowing the third-most points to opposing tight ends but that is mostly between two games where Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates both scored multiple touchdowns. Kelce is my TE5 on the season and owners should be hoping he can match Gates’ performance from two weeks ago.
Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers - I have a very hard time trusting Brown without Ben Roethlisberger, as he has not exceeded 45 yards in the past three games. I still have him at WR18 because I know the talent is there with or without Big Ben, but it’s hard to justify putting him any higher when these QBs have been unable to get the ball to him.
Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs - Despite some rather ugly games, Alex Smith has remained a viable fantasy play in all matchups except against the Broncos. A lot of the time that has been because the Chiefs are playing from behind and Smith is forced to throw a lot. With Landry Jones in at QB for the Steelers, Smith may not have that opportunity this week, limiting his ceiling. I have him at QB18.
Browns @ Rams - Sunday 10/25 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams - Although Gurley hasn’t scored yet, he has had over 150 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two career starts, and on paper this is his best matchup yet. The Browns allow the fourth-most points to RBs, and it’s hard to see Gurley slowing down here.
Matchups We Hate:
Josh McCown, QB, Browns - The Rams allow the third-fewest points to QBs. Their defensive line (which is tied for third-most sacks despite the bye) puts huge pressure on quarterbacks. After seeing McCown struggle against Denver, I can’t see him faring much better here despite his earlier success.
Notable Players:
Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns - Benjamin has become a legitimate threat with great speed. He has seen at least 10 targets in each of the past four games. As long as the targets keep coming, he is a WR2.
Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns - Barnidge continues to defy the odds and sits as the TE3 on the season with at least one touchdown in each of the past four games. The Rams have only given up one touchdown to a tight end and that was Jimmy Graham in Week 1. However, the Broncos were a similarly tough matchup and Barnidge still found success. I still have some reservations about him, but I think he should be started in almost all scenarios right now.
The rest of the Rams offense - I’m bunching them all together because there isn’t much to like. Nick Foles is QB34 in points per game. He has looked decent in the Rams two wins but downright awful in three losses. No receiver has averaged even 50 yards a game, even counting Tavon Austin’s 99 rushing yards. Outside of Gurley, there isn’t much for fantasy purposes here.
