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Week 4 Rankings Analysis: Nick Mariano vs. Industry Consensus

Week 3 went pretty well for us. We pushed Ben Roethlisberger down a few slots and said we didn’t have faith in Ryan Tannehill. Talked up Jordy Nelson as needing more respect, and my inner Giants fan was validated when DeSean Jackson torched Big Blue for a TD. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, as I was lower on folks like Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. Of course, I still think Gurley wasn’t actually that good and just fell into some TDs. That'll happen though, the perks of being a bellcow-back. Remember, it’s the process, not the results.

Now it’s time to review my rankings for Week 4 and look at how they stack up against the Expert Consensus, commenting on any standouts or points of contention. Assume standard rankings when I say that a player is x spots ahead or below consensus.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

 

Week 4 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Quarterback offers plenty of healthy plays, even with Aaron Rodgers and mega-superstar Carson Wentz on bye. I’m bumping Matthew Stafford up two spots over Drew Brees (on the road) and Andrew Luck (in London) since Stafford gets to feast on an insanely beaten-up Chicago defense. My only fear is that the Bears won’t be able to muster enough offense to create a need for Stafford to do much come the second half, but he’s still a slinger and the opportunity is too good.

I also have Trevor Siemian up a couple notches as he gets to face a Tampa Bay defense that just allowed far too many points to Case Keenum and the Pop Warner-level Rams offense (sorry LA fans). Denver, and Emmanuel Sanders, asked Siemian to fire the ball downfield in Week 3, and boy did he deliver. The Bucs have a strong front seven that should give Denver’s running game fits, so look for Siemian to sniff low-end QB1 numbers this week.

Sam Bradford also gets a big seven-point bump here, as the Giants are another defense that can stifle the run (nevermind that Minnesota’s rushing attack is currently uninspiring). Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple were both banged up at the end of Week 3’s contest against Washington, so perhaps Bradford and company will be able to take advantage.

 

Week 4 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Running back doesn’t call for many tweaks within the top-10, but as of now I do have Jeremy Hill up five slots to round out the group at #10 from his consensus #15 spot. Not only did Hill run very well against a strong Denver defense last week, but the Bengals face off against a Dolphins squad that needed overtime just to triumph over a beleaguered Browns team. Cincinnati will likely be able to control this game with the ground-and-pound and their defense. That means Hill. Lots of Hill.

Our prior note on the Giants rushing attack means that Jerick McKinnon takes a step back, though his pass-catching ability may give him a decent floor against NYG’s sub-par linebacking corps. Dwayne Washington steps up above him, which connects to the Stafford note as Detroit may very well be able to see what they’ve got in Washington in a game that they should be able to handily control.

Jordan Howard also gets bumped up 4 slots compared to the current consensus, as I think Chicago will want to see what they've got in him. We can't get too bullish here, as it's extremely likely that Chicago will need to pass early and often in catch-up mode, but Howard showed last week that he's more than capable as a receiver (four catches on six targets for 47 yards). Volume will yield value.

 

Week 4 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Well, Green Bay is on a bye so I can’t elevate Jordy Nelson again. That means the biggest action within the top-10 is my dropping of Brandin Cooks out of it. Not only is Cooks a boom-or-bust type anyway, but this is a road matchup for New Orleans (typically not a good look) and he’ll likely see a lot of shut-down CB Jason Verrett. Pass.

Mike Evans will hold outside of the top-12 for now, given the horrible matchup against Denver’s secondary, but rest assured if he delivers in a fourth-straight week then he’ll never leave my top-8 again.

I like Allen Hurns’ chances of turning in a good game a little more than my cohorts, though that may be ill-advised with how Jacksonville’s offense has been rolling in general. At least Allen Robinson got on the board last week, but I tend to like Hurns’ matchup against Patrick Robinson while AR-15 likely will have to do battle with Vontae Davis. Not that Allen Robinson can’t win that matchup, but Hurns has an easier route to points I believe.

Seattle’s Tyler Lockett takes quite a dip for me, as the emergence of Jimmy Graham really leaves him as the odd man out behind the big tight end and stud Doug Baldwin. Lockett only played on 23 snaps in Week 3. Baldwin had 55, Jermaine Kearse – 54, and even Paul Richardson had 27. That’s not enough for you? He didn’t even garner a target. Stay away.

 

Week 4 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Tight end really turned into a graveyard last week, with Rob Gronkowski coming back as active only to do nothing. Delanie Walker was scratched. Antonio Gates was revealed as being hurt. It was gross. So what’s in store for this week?

I’m dropping Mr. Gronk until New England shows that they’re willing to fully set him loose. Can’t trust him as a top-five option before he’s out there for more than 70% of snaps (22% last Thursday). I doubt any of you are going to bench Gronk if you have him, and I’m not advocating that, but he’s not a top option yet.

Someone I’d play over him is Kyle Rudolph. It’s pretty wild how big of a difference a few good games can make to a perennially forgotten player, but here we are. His 10 targets in Week 3 easily led the Vikings, and there’s no backup TE pushing him for any snaps. And again, the Giants linebackers are just not that good. NYG has performed decently against TEs so far, but the sample size is very small and just last week there were quite a few times where Jordan Reed could’ve done major damage if given the ball.

I also like Hunter Henry as a quiet TE1 type, as he played on 100% of snaps and caught all five of his targets for 76 yards. While most will remember the late fumble, he still looked fluid out there and should draw the start against the Saints with Gates very unlikely to play again in Week 4.

Gary Barnidge will get buried in my rankings until he shows some life. It isn’t as though we’re just waiting for him to get a piece of an otherwise-functional offense either. You’re sifting through mud for a quarter at this point. Check back later.

I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.

 

Week 4 Staff Rankings

 


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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