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Week 3 Monday Night (MNF) Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find our Week 3 NFL Monday Night matchups analysis & fantasy football start/sit recommendations for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the Week 3 Monday Night matchup between the Saints and Falcons to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Campus (@pfunk00) and part two of this week's matchups by yours truly (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests for Week 3. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

 

Falcons @ Saints - Monday 9/26 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)

Matt Ryan has been one of the top QBs in the league so far this season statistically. Through two games, he has already thrown for 730 yards (72.6% completion percentage) and five scores. He will travel on the road this week to face the Saints, whom he has done well against over the past two seasons. During that time, Ryan has averaged (over four games) 350 yards passing, a 70.6% completion percentage, two TDs and zero INTs (threw only one INT over four games). With the Falcons offense clicking like it is, Ryan will have all he needs to put up another solid game.

Jacob Tamme (TE, ATL)

Jacob Tamme has emerged as one of Ryan’s favorite targets early on in 2016. Through two games, he has caught 11-of-16 targets for 126 yards and a TD. The Saints defense has not yet faced a team this season that utilizes the TE position like the Falcons do. Last season, the Saints allowed the most fantasy points to the TE position in the entire league. Tamme is a great play this week for those who’ve picked him up recently, and could be a great play the rest of the season even if Ryan continues looking his way. We could be looking at the beginning of a career year for the ninth-year vet.

Julio Jones (WR, ATL)

You always have to expect Julio Jones to have a big game, especially when the Saints are the opponent. Right along with Matt Ryan, over the past two seasons Jones has done very well against the Saints. He averages seven receptions on 10 targets for 116 yards. The only thing missing are the TDs; he has zero against them since 2014 with his longest reception going for 30 yards. Jones has TDs in each of his first two games this season, and the Saints have allowed 40-yard receptions in each of the first two weeks. Jones is going to feast against this defense tonight.

Brandin Cooks (WR, NO)

Brandin Cooks is emerging as a top WR option in fantasy and for the Saints this season. Cooks had a huge Week 1, gaining 143 yards and two TDs. While his Week 2 was quieter, he still had seven receptions on nine targets. Up next we have the Falcons defense, who has allowed opposing WR1s to average five receptions for 85 yards through two weeks. Last season the Falcons did a god job limiting Cooks to only nine receptions for 63 yards over two games. Cooks is the best and healthiest option Brees will have to throw to on Monday with Willie Snead dealing with a toe injury. Expect Cooks to get double-digit targets as the 0-and-2 Saints pass to avoid another loss.

Matchups We Hate:

Mark Ingram (RB, NO)

Mark Ingram has had troubles getting things going so far this season. He has rushed 21 times for 88 yards, and caught six passes for 46 yards with no scores through two weeks.  Drafted in the top two or three rounds in many leagues, much more was expected of Ingram to this point. His past two games against the Falcons don’t inspire much hope; he has rushed a combined 33 times for 84 yards (2.5 YPC), while catching six passes for 27 yards. He did score three TDs over those two games which saved his fantasy output, but overall those are very pedestrian numbers. While the matchup on paper looks good, I am not convinced this game goes well for Ingram.

Notable Players:

Drew Brees (QB, NO)

Drew Brees is certainly has better stats at home in the Superdome compared to on the road. Last season Brees had a 23:5 TD:INT ratio at home compared to 9:6 on the road. However, the Falcons have played well against Brees over the past two seasons, even at the Superdome. In his last two home starts against them, he averages 313 yards and a 70% completion percentage, but only a 1:1 TD:INT ratio (two TDs, two INTs). Brees is efficient with his passes, but hasn’t been able to put up the big numbers in a favorable divisional matchup. He will be good, but not great.

Coby Fleener (TE, NO)

If Coby Fleener is going to break out in any game, it’s going to be this one. Last season the Falcons were in the top-five of points allowed to TEs, and through two games this season haven’t looked any better. Fleener was brought in this offseason to fill the void created when Ben Watson left, after he had a solid year with the Saints in 2015. So far Fleener has looked out of place, going as far back as training camp. I will believe it when I see it, so don’t expect much from him heading into this one. This will be the last straw for fantasy owners. If he can’t show up in this one, it’s best to move on with someone else at the position.

Tevin Coleman/Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)

It is tough to predict which one of these backs will have the better performance. While Freeman has gotten more carries to this point (28-to-20), it is Coleman who has dominated the receiving game (7-120-1 for Coleman, 4-20-0 for Freeman) in 2016. The Saints present a good matchup for RBs, but with both of these backs getting plenty of touches they hurt each other from a fantasy perspective. With this game expecting to be a passing affair, look for Coleman to have the better fantasy day, but Freeman once again getting the majority of the rushing attempts. Freeman dominated the Saints last season as the starter, rushing for 181 yards on 37 rushes, including 74 receiving yards on 10 catches and three total TDs over two games. The production will be there for these backs to split, it’s just a matter of who is in the game when the opportunity presents itself.
 




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