Here we are, the All Star Break is upon us just like that. Okay yeah, technically games will play the day that this is published, but that doesn’t sound nice. Our marching orders here remain the same, looking at some low-owned starting pitchers who are worth discussing for better or worse.

That is to say, some of these guys deserve your attention, and some of them are seeing their ownership shoot up while sporting some serious warning signs. We’ll try to slip in some unfamiliar names to the series this week, since many of the names end up getting repeated at this point in the season.

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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets:

Junior Guerra (MIL, SP) – 62% Owned – Wow, did this figure jump. I was actually just talking about Guerra with a colleague here, and how there are just so many warning signs present. His last six starts in which he’s posted a 2.45 ERA have really put him on the map, but in the same span he’s enjoying a wild .187 BABIP and high 86.7% strand rate to shroud a 4.14 FIP and 4.12 xFIP. Not that the low-fours aren’t decent for streaming, but temper those expectations people, all I’m sayin’.

A.J. Griffin (TEX, SP) – 38% Owned – I know part of this ownership bump is because he faces the Twins today (July 10) for you last day streamers, but this is a toxic stock. This I have no problem repeating: he has a 8.8% swinging-strike rate, which really isn’t high enough to back the 8.62 K/9, and his 4.46 SIERA is leaps and bounds above that 3.06 ERA. I respect that his 24.8% soft-contact rate is high, but a 34.9% hard-hit rate mixed with being a fly-ball pitcher is troublesome as well. Not getting involved here.

Matt Moore (TB, SP) – 36% Owned – Moore drew a tough matchup @BOS on July 9, but still managed to notch a quality start – his third in a row – with two earned runs over six innings. He’s turned it around recently by limiting walks and homers, which goes a long way as a pitcher, giving him some solid momentum heading into the second half. Unfortunately, starts like this one in Fenway Park illustrate the ever-present issue of pitching in the AL East, but he’s worth playing in plus-matchups when he’s feeling good on the mound like this.

Adam Conley (MIA, SP) – 38% Owned – Conley’s a repeat customer here so we’ll keep it brief. He’s now won three of his last four starts, and would’ve gotten the quality start against the Reds had Don Mattingly allowed him to face Adam Duvall with two outs in the sixth inning (Duvall homered off of him earlier). He needs to build up the consistency, but he’s a nice back-end arm.

James Paxton (SEA, SP) – 25% Owned – Short and sweet: Paxton is one of the best “cheap” buy-low candidates heading into the second half. His .390 BABIP is laughably high even with a horribly low 8.9% soft-contact rate giving it some legitimacy, but if he can continue to generate whiffs and get ahead in counts then the fantasy ceiling remains very high.

CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) – 31% Owned – No one enjoys hearing “I told you so”, but it’s so much fun to say. Hopefully you didn’t overcommit and get burned in these last four starts where he’s allowed 21 earned runs in 23 innings.

Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 28% Owned – It’s not a Nick Mariano article without Jon Gray, who was strong against the Phillies at Coors Field with eight strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball. He hasn’t been the luckiest with wins, but has seven quality starts in his last nine outings (56 2/3 innings) alongside 56 Ks and a 3.90 SIERA in that stretch. He’s still learning and has some consistency woes with leaving hittable balls in the zone, but the upside is tremendous.

Alex Wood (LAD, SP) – 26% Owned – Dave Roberts said that he’s “really close” to returning, with a Minor League rehab stint coming very soon. Before getting hurt he had put together a great stretch, striking out 50 in 35 1/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA (2.54 FIP, 2.19 xFIP) since making a mechanical adjustment in his windup.

Hector Santiago (LAA, SP) – 24% Owned – He’s gaining some buzz again (remember his start to the season?), but this is not a streak to buy into. Yes, he’s 3-0 with four QS and a 2.30 ERA in his last five outings, so why wave the caution flag? Well, in the same stretch he owns a 4.26 FIP, 5.33 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA as he’s dancing around a horrid 4.60 BB/9 mark with a .205 BABIP. He’s capable of sustaining relatively low BABIPs, but think more .250, not .200.

Zach Davies (MIL, SP) – 24% Owned – I imagine you all know this, but he’s coming right back up after the All Star Break just in case a leaguemate of yours panic-dropped him.

Andrew Cashner (SD, SP) – 20% Owned – I had been asked a few times about Cashner after his first start off of the DL where he shut down the Yankees, but my response was not to trust him. I doubt most of you trust him anyway, but just for the record, look elsewhere for your streamers folks.

Julio Urias (LAD, SP) – 20% Owned – Urias is going to work out of the ‘pen in Triple-A to get acclimated to being a reliever, so don’t get too excited when he’s eventually called back up again. Perhaps he’ll draw a spot-start if there’s an emergency, but he’s a reliever from here on out this season.

Martin Perez (TEX, SP) – 19% Owned – He owns a 5.36 SIERA behind the 3.85 ERA. He barely strikes anyone out (4.35 K/9) and doesn’t even have a high soft-contact rate (16.2%), so expect more starts like the July 6 debacle at Boston rather than that streak of victories from late May and June moving forward.

Luis Severino (NYY, SP) – 17% Owned – It’s been a while since we spoke of Severino, but he has five wins (all quality starts) in his last six outings at Triple-A so perhaps there’s something brewing here. The Yankees are in no rush to call him back up, but it’s good to be aware of his progress just in case.

Ervin Santana (MIN, SP) – 16% Owned – He looks like a guy who is poised to be traded at the deadline, and could be a nice asset moving forward depending on his landing spot. Ever since he made a tweak to his windup he’s posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Tyler Anderson (COL, SP) – 13% Owned – Hype, hype, hype. Not only did he notch his first Major League victory with a nice two-run outing at home, but he blasted his first homer as well since he’s a strong, independent pitcher. He could very easily have six quality starts in all six of his outings, but only went 5 2/3 innings in two of his starts even though he’s never allowed more than three earned in an appearance. He limits walks (1.51 BB/9), strikes out nearly a batter per inning (8.07 K/9) while inducing grounders at a rowdy 59.8% clip, so buy in.

Alex Cobb (TB, SP) – 13% Owned – He’s probably got around four more rehab starts between him and his 2016 Major League debut, and makes for a nice stash considering his top-30 SP upside.

Nick Tropeano (LAA, SP) – 9% Owned – He’s posted two useful starts since being recalled, though this latest one against the Orioles on July 9 was his sharpest. The Orioles do have plenty of free-swinging types, which played well into Tropeano’s off-speed stuff as he notched eight Ks in six innings of one-run ball. His 3.12 ERA shouldn’t anchor expectations though, as he’ll need more starts like this where he limits walks and homers to become the type of pitcher that can sustain a ratio like that. Still, the decent ceiling is there for the 25-year-old and deep-league fantasy owners alike.

Jorge De La Rosa (COL, SP) – 6% Owned – De La Rosa has looked quite impressive since returning to the starting rotation, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.61 ERA in his five starts since he made adjustments to his windup in the bullpen. I highly doubt that anyone will be able to flip him for much, but he makes for a decent trade throw-in in deep formats since his fielding-independent metrics say the fun is due to end. Those same five starts also house a 5.24 SIERA, more than double his ERA in that stretch, so just be careful. That said, he has at least been able to limit opponents to a paltry 24.7% hard-hit rate, so some of his good fortune is being earned.

Zach Eflin (PHI, SP) – 5% Owned – Eflin was stellar in his latest start, tossing a one-run complete game for his first Major League over the Braves. He takes on the Rockies in Coors Field in a nice test on the last day of the season’s first half, which I’d never start, but should he perform well then he’ll require a much closer eye despite the modest strikeout totals.

Kendall Graveman (OAK, SP) – 4% Owned – Graveman has four QS in his last five outings, headlining that stretch with his most recent matchup @HOU where he tossed eight innings of two-run ball. He has regained his strong ground-ball inducing ways, with each of those last five starts registering a 52% GB rate while only allowing one homer in that stretch. He’s prone to streaks, but the 25-year-old is on a good one for now.

Tyler Duffey (MIN, SP) – 4% Owned – He might be recapturing some of the potential that he flashed last season and in his first four starts this season, as he’s won his last three starts - dominating the Yankees and Rangers in his last two road starts. This season he owns a 7.45 home ERA against a 3.07 road ERA, so this seems like an intriguing trend to note, but he’ll need to clean up the .303/.354/.522 triple slash that he’s allowing to right-handed batters first.

Lucas Harrell (ATL, SP) – 2% Owned – Yes, his first two starts have yielded a 1.32 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, but his Minor League numbers were highlighted by far too many walks for this current stretch to appear sustainable (.194 BABIP, 4.22 SIERA).

Miguel Gonzalez (CWS, SP) – 1% Owned – Gonzalez will always be prone to a poor start, he's simply not good enough at a base level to have a consistent "out strategy" when trouble hits or he isn't feeling his best. That said, he's logged a quality start in four of his last six outings and actually has a 2.26 ERA outside of his three "blowups" this season, two of which came against a Toronto team that no fantasy streamer would have ever targeted (the other was against Detroit). That's pretty nifty at 1% owned.

 

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