Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 15 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis for the later games.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part one of our Week 15 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

 

Jets @ Cowboys - Saturday 12/19 @ 8:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets - The Cowboys have been very hit-or-miss against RBs this season. They have given up 35 or more fantasy points to running backs in four different matchups and less than 10 points in another five matchups. Last week was one of the bad matchups, as both Eddie Lacy and James Starks bowled over the defense. The Jets duo is perhaps less respected but really quite similar in skill and production. The Jets should have a lead throughout this game which means they will run quite a bit. I like Ivory as a top-ten back here.

Matchups We Hate:

Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys - In typical Jets fashion, they lead the league with just one rushing touchdown given up to an RB this season and a league -ow 807 rushing yards to RBs. McFadden has played really well in good matchups and horribly in bad matchups (17 carries for 32 rushing yards vs Bucs and 10 carries for 11 yards vs Panthers). He might put up an ugly YPC this week as well. The one glimmer of hope is that the Jets aren’t great vs receivers coming out of the backfield. Although McFadden only has 1 catch over the last two weeks, he can catch. I have McFadden at RB18 this week.

Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys - The Jets give up the fifth-fewest points to tight ends. Witten is usually good for about five catches for 40 yards but even that seems like a stretch this week.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys - While Darrelle Revis doesn’t exactly scare me, he is still really good. What does scare me is Matt Cassel. It has been a totally lost season for Bryant. Sure it’s Dez, but I can’t think of a single reason why he should be in anyone’s lineup this week. I have him outside of my top 30 WRs. That makes me sad, but it is what it is.

Notable Players:

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Jets - The Cowboys have played really well against QBs all season. They haven’t given up 20+ points to a QB since Tom Brady in Week 5. Meanwhile Ryan Fitzpatrick is on a real hot streak, averaging 26 points over his last three games. Is that a result of a few really nice matchups or just some great play on the part of Fitz and his receivers? I’m going to say a little bit of both. As a result expect Fitz to come back down to earth a bit this week but still put up a strong game. He will continue to make for a nice stream.

Brandon Marshall & Eric Decker, WRs, Jets - The Cowboys have been great against WRs all season, giving up the fifth-fewest points to WRs. That stat is always surprising to me. I guess it’s because the Cowboys have a real lack of star power on defense but veteran DC Rod Marinelli always finds ways to get it done. That said, I’m not backing down from these two WRs. Eric Decker has been the image of consistency this season. Brandon Marshall has been a little more up and down but has definitely had more good than bad. Both are just too good to bench.

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets - While I’m not willing to commit to Powell as strongly as Ivory, he has played well lately. Powell has averaged 78.5 yards from scrimmage over his last four games with two touchdowns. The Cowboys are a really nice matchup for receiving backs too, with the 6th most receptions allowed to RBs. Especially if the Jets get a big lead (I’m not sure they will, but it’s a reasonable thing to expect) we should see a lot of Powell. I think he makes a nice flex, even over some low-end starting RBs.

 

Bears @ Vikings - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings - Peterson has slowed down a bit over his last four games. He has averaged a 4.0 YPC with 72 rush yards per game during that time. He had to deal with two tough matchups in Seattle and then Arizona on a short week. The Bears will be a MUCH easier matchup and I think the extra rest can only help the older Peterson. I expect him to at least exceed 100 yards with a score this week.

Matchups We Hate:

Matt Forte, RB, Bears - This one will depend heavily on the status of a number of questionable studs on the defensive side for Vikings, most notably Linval Joseph. As it is, the Vikings have only given up five rushing touchdowns to RBs and they are in the bottom ten in receptions given up to RBs. Forte had just 11 touches last week. Couple with the matchup I feel far less confident than normal. He is still very startable but outside my top ten.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings - One position you don’t really want to start against the Bears is tight end. The Bears have given up just three touchdowns and about 50 yards per game to tight ends. If I don’t like Rudolph’s chances to score, I’ll avoid him and that is the case this week. It is worth noting Rudolph has averaged a respectable 60 yards per game over his last four, but I’ll still pass.

Notable Players:

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears - Cutler has been very up and down this season and I think his status here depends on the injury status of the Vikings best defensive players, as mentioned with Forte. In particular, star S Harrison Smith’s absence could really help Cutler to a solid day. I consider Cutler a solid stream.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - The one Bear you absolutely want to start this week. Jeffery should be in there every week and the Vikings have given up at least 20 fantasy points to opposing WRs each of the last four weeks. No worry about Jeffery here.

Zach Miller, TE, Bears - Since taking over for Martellus Bennett, Miller has actually been even better with 46 yards per game and five touchdowns in his last six games. The Vikings are an average matchup for TEs. If you have to start Miller, I wouldn’t be too worried.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings - Bridgewater really played well last week and ended up with a fine but not great 15 fantasy points. That was just the fourth time all season he had reached that number. He doesn’t have a whole lot of upside even in a decent matchup like this one. He’s an alright stream in deeper leagues but that is about it.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings - Diggs enjoyed a nice start to his career but has averaged just three catches for 36 yards over his last six games. I can’t imagine starting him here. The Vikings prefer to run when they can and spread the ball to many receivers when they do throw.

 

Falcons @ Jaguars - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars - It looks like Shoelace will start this week and he makes for a great fantasy option. The Falcons have given up five rushing scores to RBs over their last three games. After previously holding RBs to low yardage, they’ve also given up at least 120 rushing yards in those games. Denard makes for a very nice add and start this week.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - The Jaguars really lack a top cornerback. That led to T.Y. Hilton putting up 132 yards last week and Julio may just exceed that. Julio leads the league in receptions and yards. This game may turn into an offensive shootout so I see no reason to think it will stop.

Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars - Blake Bortles and Julius are finally clicking. That has led to four straight games with a touchdown. His yardage has been all over the place but last week’s five catches for 54 yards seems like a good expectation. With the way this offense is playing and Julius establishing himself as a top red zone option, I really like his chances to score here.

Matchups We Hate:

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars - If there is one player you may want to avoid this week, it’s Hurns. The Falcons give up the second fewest points to WRs. Then again, this offense is so hot I’m not sure it will matter. I still think Hurns is a great flex. He proved he was healthy last week and had an 80 yard touchdown. He is outside of my top 20 but still startable.

Notable Players:

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars - The Falcons do have a solid secondary but we saw Cam Newton cut through them last week. Bortles isn’t quite as hot but he is still playing at a high level as well. I think Bortles suffers most when under pressure and Atlanta is dead last in sacks. Bortles will be fine and is in my top ten.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars - Robinson has a tough matchup on his hands but I think he’ll be fine. He did only have one catch last week--thankfully it was a touchdown. I’m still liking this offense too much and he remains in my top ten.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons - This has been a disaster of a season for Ryan. Believe it or not he is actually 17th of 18 QBs that have started all 13 games this season. This is a great matchup but I’m still not confident in Ryan. I have him at QB16 this week. A fine stream but I’m not going to let the matchup get me excited here.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons - Freeman has really come down to earth with less than 50 rushing yards in each of his last three games. (He had three carries for 43 yards in the game he left with a concussion) However he has continued to catch a lot of passes with 21 receptions and 48 rec yards on average in those same three games. That has allowed him to stay relevant and that should continue here. The Jags haven’t allowed anyone to rush for 100 yards since Doug Martin in Week 5. They’ve also only given up one RB rushing touchdown in the last five games. It will be tough going for Freeman there but the Jags do give up a ton of RB receptions so expect Freeman to save himself there. He is still a must start.

Jacob Tamme, TE, Falcons - The Jaguars give up the fourth most points to tight ends making this a pretty enticing matchup for Tamme. However with less than 30 yards in three of his last four matchups I see Tamme as a big boom/bust player this week. Outside of Julio and Freeman the Falcons just don’t have a lot to work with so you have to think Tamme would be more involved, but that hasn’t been the case lately. I see him as a solid stream but be aware that he definitely carries some risk.

 

Texans @ Colts - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans - Last week the Colts did hold Allen Robinson to just one catch, although it was a touchdown. The week before that, they were absolutely destroyed by Pittsburgh’s trio of wide receivers. Hopkins had 11 catches for 169 yards in their first matchup, he should be a top five play here.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts - Hilton has always played well against the Texans. He averages 107 yards per game with 6 touchdowns across 7 career games. Just once has he failed to go below 75 yards against this team. Even with Hasselbeck early in the season, Hilton put up 5 catches for 88 yards against the Texans. I like his odds to keep up the streak here.

Matchups We Hate:

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Colts - Hasselbeck has really hit a wall the last two weeks with just one touchdown to four turnovers. The Texans defense has been very up and down over the last six games but with the way Hasselbeck has played I will avoid him even in deeper leagues.

Frank Gore, RB, Colts - While Frank Gore continues to rack up carries - he has eclipsed 200 carries for the 10th straight season - his efficiency has dropped by a concerning margin in the second half of the season. Despite averaging 21 touches over his last six games Gore has only averaged 77 yards a game. 77 yards certainly doesn’t sound bad but 3.65 yards per play is. Outside of a single game where Devonta Freeman beat the Texans up for three rushing touchdowns, the Texans have only given up three rushing scores to RBs in the other 12 games combined. I have Gore outside my top twenty this week as a high floor, but really low ceiling player.

Notable Players:

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts - Moncrief is very questionable this week with a foot injury. Even if he does play, I’d avoid him in this offense trending downward.

Nate Washington & Cecil Shorts, WR, Texans - I think one of these players ends up with a solid day. Which one is very up in the air. The Texans mostly employed a three-WR set with both Washington and Shorts in on at least 80% of snaps against the Patriots. The Colts give up the third most points to WRs so you would think they will continue that direction. Not a bad desperation play here, and I favor Washington slightly.

Texans RBs - With Alfred Blue getting 0 snaps on offense last week (he played strictly on special teams. It’s unclear if he was benched for poor play or disciplinary reasons). this is a backfield that must be avoided. Chris Polk got the start while Jonathan Grimes was the most productive back. I would have to be insanely desperate to start any player here. If I did play anyone it would be Jonathan Grimes. Grimes has a 5.7 YPC and at least 30 yards in each of the last five games. I would love to see him get a shot at a feature back role but to bank on that would be a mistake.

 

Panthers @ Giants - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - I’m not worried about the absence of Jonathan Stewart this week. If that means more throwing for Cam, then so be it. The Giants give up the most passing yards in the league. Cam has played great all season and should have no problem slicing and dicing through this porous defense.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers - Olsen is questionable this week but signs definitely point to him playing. That is really good news for his owners because it is a great matchup. The Giants give up the third-most points to tight ends and the second-most yards. Despite piling up the scores earlier in the season, he has just one touchdown over his last five games. He’s always been a yardage guy and assuming he does play most of the game, he should hit 80+ here.

Matchups We Hate:

Eli Manning, QB, Giants - This one should be obvious. In their past five matchups, the Panthers have only let one QB hit double-digit fantasy points (Drew Brees in a shootout). I’m certainly not ruling out Manning hitting 10 points but I don’t see him getting much more than that. Manning has been really reliable for most of this season but if you can find a halfway decent option on the waiver this week, take it.

Panthers RBs - With no JStew I am avoiding this situation. It will be a committee with Mike Tolbert likely on the field at the goal line. That doesn’t really make him the goal line back though because Cam is still more likely to run it. Tolbert has a slightly elevated TD chance but I’ll pass. Fozzy Whittaker should get the most carries but I would be surprised if he goes over 50 or 60 yards.

Giants RBs - Rashad Jennings did surpass 100 yards from scrimmage last week but this is an extremely tough matchup. This situation remains one of the less appealing in the league. Stay away from Jennings and the other Giants RBs this week.

Notable Players:

Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants - The matchup I am most excited for this week is OBJ vs elite corner Josh Norman. The Giants will look to get Odell in the slot more than usual and that should keep him away from Norman. I’m not really worried about Odell’s production here, keep him in your lineup.

Will Tye, TE, Giants - Tye has brought some solid stream-worthy production over the last four weeks. He has averaged five catches for 58 yards with one touchdown during that span. The Panthers are not an awful matchup for tight ends so he remains in the stream mix as a high floor, low ceiling player.

Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers - He is very boom or bust but especially over the last two weeks he has boomed. He has seven catches for 200 yards and four touchdowns in those two games. Statistically, that is just not likely to keep up (and he had just one touchdown in his previous seven games) but he is still the Panthers WR I would be most willing to start this week.

 

Titans @ Patriots - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots - Brady is a no-brainer top five play with Gronk back in the lineup.

Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots - The Titans have really struggled against WRs lately, giving up 200+ yards and multiple touchdowns to WRs in each of the past three games. Depending on the status of Julian Edelman this week, Amendola is the lone healthy consistent WR on this team that is capable of solid production. He makes a nice WR2 this week.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots - GRONK CATCH. GRONK SCORE. GRONK SPIKE. 

Matchups We Hate:

James White, RB, Patriots - I still prefer White over Brandon Bolden but the Titans give up the fewest receptions to RBs in the league, which is White’s bread and butter. Belichick usually recognizes these matchup disadvantages and gameplans around them. I’m hopeful White gets more involved as a runner but I’d prefer to avoid him this week. If you have to start him it’s not the end of the world. He has three touchdowns in his last four games.

Antonio Andrews, RB, Titans - Andrews hit rock bottom with 14 yards from scrimmage on five touches last week. However Dexter McCluster was placed on IR and David Cobb has somehow done even less, so Andrews is still pretty safe as the lead back in a bad committee, whatever that is worth. Andrews did of course have a 41-yard touchdown pass to his QB Marcus Mariota last week but it’s safe to say that won’t happen on a regular basis. Avoid.

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans - Startable but brace yourself for an ugly game. The Patriots have a reputation for containing a team’s best weapon and I’d have to say Walker is it this week. Last week the Patriots did just that by holding Deandre Hopkins to 52 yards. In addition to this reputation, the Patriots have been great against tight ends anyway. All signs point to a pretty bad week for Walker.

Notable Players:

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans - He should be alright here. The Patriots have strung together four good games defensively, holding QBs to 12 points and under. Meanwhile Mariota has scored at least 17 points in each of his last four games. When these two streaks collide I lean towards the Patriots defense a bit. Mariota’s day was saved by his rec TD last week that is surely not happening again. Expect 12-15 points from Mariota. A fine QB2 but nothing more.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans - DGB has started to show some signs that he is getting it in the second half of the season. He has averaged 52 yards per game over his last six - I’d consider that respectable for a rookie WR. Still though, it’s not much for fantasy. The Patriots are not a bad matchup but I don’t think he or anyone else from this group of WRs is startable.

Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots - At this point it looks like he should see 15 touches or so again. Last week he had 16 carries for 51 yards and I don’t see any reason to expect more than that. Like I said earlier, I prefer White but neither look like they have a lot of upside this week. If you’re desperate for an RB that can get touches, sure go ahead and pick up Bolden. But as we know even that isn’t a guarantee in this offense.

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots - Edelman is practicing this week and questionable on the injury report. It would be on the quicker side for a return but if he plays I’ll gladly put my confidence in him and slot him in the lineup. I would think he would immediately get 8-10 targets and put up solid WR2 numbers.

 

Bills @ Redskins - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills - The Redskins have given up 24 pass touchdowns to just nine interceptions. That’s a nice combo for Taylor who has averaged 23 points over his last three outings. I like Taylor to keep it up here and I have him in my top ten.

Lesean McCoy, RB, Bills - The Redskins played really well early in the season vs RBs, then went on a streak where they gave up 100 or more rushing yards in six straight games, which was the longest streak this season so far. Over the past three weeks they’ve played much better again. I’m pretty confident McCoy will buck that trend. McCoy has had at least 85 yards from scrimmage or a touchdown in every single game he has played this season. That is a fantastic floor for an RB.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills - Watkins is on the hottest three game streak of his young career with 116 yards per game and four total touchdowns during that span. Keep him in your lineup against a below-average Redskins secondary.

Matchups We Hate:

Charles Clay, TE, Bills - Not really a terrible matchup but the Redskins have only given up three touchdowns to tight ends this season. After a great start to the season, Clay has only averaged 30 yards over his last nine games. I’ll pass.

Notable Players:

Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins - The only time I worry about Cousins is when the Redskins face a team that applies a lot of pressure, so against the Bills I’m...not worried at all. The Bills are 30th in sacks. Cousins makes a fine QB2 but that is it.

Desean Jackson, WR, Redskins - Jackson has retained his boom or bust style this year. You can usually expect at least one deep catch, the question is whether it will go for a touchdown or not. Last week the answer was no for his 29 yard catch. I’d avoid him this week thinking he’ll get a healthy dose of Bills CB Ronald Darby.

Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins - The Bills were at one point among the worst matchups for a TE but over the last three weeks they have given up touchdowns to Travis Kelce, Ryan Griffin and then a season high 98 yards to Zach Ertz last week. I’m not considering this a great matchup yet but it’s safe to say I’m not worried about Reed.

Robert Woods, WR, Bills - I’ve always liked Woods and it seems like he has gained a pretty serious role in this offense, especially with the falloff of Charles Clay. That has led to seven targets per game over the last eight games. That’s no small sample size in the NFL. He hasn’t exactly been productive during that span but it has led to a few nice games. The Redskins give up the 10th most points to WRs. In deep leagues, he’s not the worst stream if injuries have put you in a bad spot.

 

Chiefs @ Ravens - Sunday 12/20 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs - The Ravens have had an awful secondary all season. The team only has 4 interceptions all season, the lowest in the league. Matching that up with Alex Smith and his league best 1.0% interception rate and there is almost no chance the safe Smith makes any mistakes this week (now I’ve probably jinxed it). Smith is a lock for at least 15 points with some upside in this matchup as well. One of my top streams for the week.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs - The Ravens give up the MOST points to WRs. Get Maclin in your lineup.

Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens - Aiken is kind of at the mercy of his QB talent, but he has put up respectable numbers with all three starters this season. It looks like Matt Schaub will play this weekend, and I take that as a positive (compared to Clausen). The Chiefs give up the fifth-most points to WRs. Aiken has averaged six catches for 73 yards in the three games without Flacco. In this great matchup he could approach 100 yards.

Matchups We Hate:

Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens - The Chiefs give up the fifth-fewest points to RBs. I’m not a big fan of this offense right now so I am wary of Allen. He is startable because of the expected touches (15+) but I have him outside my top 15.

Charcandrick West / Spencer Ware, RBs, Chiefs - Ware will likely sit this week which will make West startable in a similar scenario to Allen above. The Ravens give up the fourth-fewest points to RBs. If both play that makes this an incredibly unappealing situation but if Ware is out West should get 15+ touches and at least 75 yards but a touchdown will be hard to come by. The Ravens have only given up five touchdowns to RBs all season. I like West a little more than Allen but he is also outside of my top 15 at RB16.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - It’s not a great matchup for Kelce who has mostly been a disappointing player. Kelce offers a solid floor without much ceiling normally. In this matchup where the Ravens give up the third-fewest points to opponents there is virtually no upside. After getting just 18 yards last week, Kelce may be a big disappointment once again. I have him at TE10 currently and I am considering going even lower.

Notable Players:

Albert Wilson, WR, Chiefs - Wilson is locked in at the WR2 position which isn’t super exciting but he did have 87 yards on four catches last week. In this very good matchup he is intriguing sleeper. Wilson has great speed. If he can just get four or five catches he should put up nice yardage totals. He’s no sure thing but he offers upside with a chance to match last week’s numbers. He is worth consideration in deeper leagues.

 

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