Week 12 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football (Part 1)

Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season and fantasy football action, RotoBallers.

Each week of the fantasy football season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 12 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and potential waiver wire gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

To read about the rest of this week’s NFL matchups, check out Start/Sit &  Matchups Analysis for Games 8-15 and our Week 12 Standard and PPR Rankings. And of course you can always stop by the RotoBaller chat rooms for any live advice you may need.

 

Chiefs @ Raiders - Thursday 11/20 @ 8:25 EST

Matchups We Love

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

Charles is still the majority of the Chiefs offense and the Raiders defense is held together by a majority of weak parts. Charles is firmly an RB1 this week, while Knile Davis is nothing more than a handcuff.

Matchups We Hate

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders

In case you are in a league where Carr is an actual option, the Chiefs defense isn't the kind you want to test him against. With Houston, Hali and Poe generating pressure there's a good chance for a multi-interception game coming from Carr this week. That would make Andre Holmes, James Jones, Mychal Rivera and even Darren McFadden/Latavius Murray riskier plays.

Notable Players

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs

As has been the case all season, Bowe isn't a suggested play. While he gets some targets, he just isn't the kind of receiver you want to be relying on.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

The Raiders don't have a real answer to Kelce, but the Chiefs offense hasn't forced others to answer for him often this season. Low usage from Alex Smith to him throughout the season is keeping Kelce from being a higher play (he's only received more than 6 targets once), but he's still destined for a high TE2 outing at minimum.

 

Browns @ Falcons - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns

Yes, I'm ready to immediately be on the Gordon train. The Falcons defense has been incapable all season long and Gordon should be ready to burst. Brian Hoyer should be looking to him a lot, taking value away from his other receivers in Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel. Jordan Cameron is still out with a concussion.

Matchups We Hate

This is another game with too many neutral matchups.

Notable Players

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons, Julio Jones, WR, Falcons and Roddy White, WR, Falcons

The Browns pass rush is average. Their passing defense is average. Unfortunately, the Falcons offensive line is historically bad, which is the only level of bad that can destroy even the season of even the most talented of quarterbacks. On a week to week basis, it's very difficult to trust this offense but there's nothing to say that these players can't perform this week other than themselves. Ryan is amongst the high QB2s, Julio among the high WR2s and Roddy amongst the mid-to-high WR3s. Counting on anything from Steven Jackson or any other Falcons running back is never a good idea.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns or Terrance West, RB, Browns

Whichever RB gets the starting nod is going to be in position to take advantage of this pedestrian defense, especially with Gordon there to keep the Falcons from stacking the box. On top of the rushing yardage they'll allow, the Falcons are also allowing an additional 50 yards per game in the air to RBs. It looks like it's Crowell's job to lose, so I like him a bit more for this week.

 

Titans @ Eagles - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

The Entire Eagles Offense

There's nothing the Titans can do to stop this offense. Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy and yes, even Mark Sanchez, are all expected to be amongst the top 12 in their position for this week. Then again, this is also what I said about the Broncos last week.

Matchups We Hate

Titans Defense

It's pretty obvious that this team isn't looking at a good situation on defense. The Eagles offense should carve them up, just in time for Thanksgiving.

Notable Players

The Titans Passing Offense

The Eagles' pass defense isn't a strong one, and it's one that can definitely be exploited. Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright, and Zach Mettenberger all have borderline startable appeal this week in leagues where you are desperate for a starter. Delanie Walker is still dealing with a concussion as of now, and is questionable.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans

The Eagles are middle of the pack in both yards per game and yards per carry allowed to RBs, but FO and PFF both has them as being amongst the top 10 in actual run defense based on their on field play and opponents. Meanwhile, Sankey is struggling to get the bulk of the carries on his team. Sankey's looking more like a low RB2 or FLEX option this week.

 

Lions @ Patriots - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

New England Defense

It use to be that the Mathew Stafford/Calvin Johnson duo was enough to steer you away from the defenses they faced. This season, that's barely been the case. The New England defense is much better than in years past and the one point of weakness (their run defense) isn't one the Lions can exploit.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots

Detroit has faced only one good tight end this season (Jimmy Graham playing through an injury had 0 yards), and has otherwise faced a complete who's who of nobodies from Troy Niklas, Levine Toilolo, and that guy who took over for Kyle Rudolph for a few weeks. Despite the weak TE schedule, they've allowed 50 yards per game to the position, almost league average (which is 52). Gronkowski is no average tight end.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions

This is the guy I'm expecting to head the Lions passing attack this week. He'll most likely be lined up against his former teammate Brandon Browner which is going to be a very good matchup for Tate. In previous posts, I've often mentioned the struggle between big corners versus fast small WRs. Well here's another one of these, as Tate is a complete mismatch for Browner. We've seen Sherman/Browner being beat by Hilton (2013), Sanders and DeSean Jackson (2014). Tate's headed for a legitimately good matchup this week. Start him in your WR3/WR2 freely, as I'm expecting a high WR2 game.

Matchups We Hate

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

I hate putting this here but I have to because he's facing Darrelle Revis. Some people are out there saying "Revis isn't as good as he use to be", well as of right now Revis is allowing 35.7 yards a game and 0.1 touchdowns a game, on par with him in his 2011 year as a shutdown corner. Calvin's no regular WR but the last time he faced Revis (a game that went into overtime in 2010) he had a total of 1 catch for 4 yards. I'm not going to pretend that Calvin needs to be removed from your lineup, but it's a fact-- Revis is able to shut down WRs, no matter who they are.

Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots

The biggest breakout star of Week 11 is going from facing one of the league's bottom run defenses (in previous matchup posts you may have seen me say that there is only one player on the starting front 7 of the Colts defense that should be playing at all on run downs), to facing the league's best. The Lions are allowing the lowest YPG and YPC to RBs this year, and are amongst the top 3 on PFF and FO against the run. Shane Vereen should have a better chance this week, as he gets more targets out of the backfield rather than being a pure runner.

Notable Players

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

It's hard to bet against him with the streak he has going, but the Detroit Lions defense isn't #1 in total defense for nothing. Of course, all this means is that Brady will have extra motivation and may end up going bonkers. But we can't measure emotion, so I'm going to leave him here, amongst the low QB1s. He will most likely be leaning on the passing game with Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and of course Gronk.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

Stafford hasn't been himself this season and the Patriots defense is playing very well. It's hard to expect better than high QB2 numbers from him this week.

 

Packers @ Vikings - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers

In the next five weeks, the Packers play only 1 defense above 16th for rushing defense. This week, he's looking at a very soft Vikings Defense.

Matchups We Hate

Vikings Defense

Aaron Rodgers and his offense makes it hard to ever start his opposing defense.

Notable Players

The Packers Passing Offense

In their last game, a Thursday Night Blowout, the Packers put together 42 points. Since then, the Vikings have allowed more than 20 points only once. The Packers offense is a clear tier above any of the opponents within that span, but the Vikings improvement is not something to outright ignore. While Rodgers is sitting firmly at his QB1 throne, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both looking at potentially scoring a little less than they have all season. Regardless, they're not likely to fall out of the WR2 discussion. Davante Adams is more of a boom or bust play still, even in PPR leagues.

Packers Defense

An interesting flip of the coin here, the Vikings offense isn't efficient and the Packers are coming off a two game high. There's an opportunity for another high week. Teddy Bridgewater has been inconsistent week to week, in getting the ball to Greg Jennings, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson. Jerick McKinnon's role isn't as clearly defined with Ben Tate now on the team, and Matt Asiata still in the fold, but he has a decent chance here if he continue to get volume. If the Packers get off to a big lead, McKinnon may be getting passes out of the backfield.

 

Jaguars @ Colts - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts and Andrew Luck, WR, Colts

The Jaguars passing defense has been very weak, especially against #1 WRs where they're allowing 86 yards per game (league average is currently 69). Luck and Hilton should be looking to bounce back after an awful week against the Patriots. Coby Fleener is another name to consider here, especially in PPR leagues, as Dwayne Allen is nursing an injury. Reggie Wayne is a solid play, while Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief just aren't getting enough consistent targets.

Colts Defense

The defense should be looking to redeem themselves too. Blake Bortles currently leads the league in turnovers and has thrown one in every single game.

Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars

It was only a matter of time until the Colts run defense really fell apart. Like I mentioned above withJonas Grey, according to PFF only one player of the Colts starting front seven should even be playing on run downs. Despite the knowledge that the Colts will be looking to redeem themselves, it's hard to see Robinson not managing to get at least 100 all purpose yards against a team that not only allows 4.6 yards per carry, but also 56 yards in the air to RBs per game.

Matchups We Hate

Jaguars Defense

They're playing Andrew Luck, man. Its the #3 scoring offense in the NFL.

Notable Players

Trent Richardson, RB, Colts

Ahmad Bradshaw going down will certainly help Richardson's value, but as we've all seen he still isn't very good with the ball from behind the line of scrimmage. Luckily, he is actually a pretty decent pass catching RB (actually, he's good at it) so all the targets he'll soak up from Bradshaw's loss should benefit his floor greatly. However, the Jaguars run defense has been average or better all season long and Richardson's a low RB2 on any week he doesn't score a touchdown. Dan Herron should be in the mix as well, but this is probably more of a wait and see week with him.

 

Bengals @ Texans - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Whichever RB starts for the Texans

Whether it's Alfred Blue or Arian Foster, or both, the Bengals defense isn't good against running backs. They've allowed the 9th most YPC to RBs and are amongst the bottom of all run defense metrics.

Whichever RB starts for the Bengals

Whether it's Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill, or both, the Texans defense isn't good against running backs. They've allowed the 3rd most YPC to RBs and are amongst the bottom of all run defense metrics.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

The Texans are allowing opposing WR1s 94 yards per game on average. On Average. Green's a firm WR1 this week.

Matchups We Hate

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans and DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has its strongest points at outside CB, and they're allowing 52 and 45 yards per game to opposing WR1s and WR2s, respectively. With second time starting QB Ryan Mallett playing, it's a volatile situation where no one really knows what direction this will go. Regardless, weaknesses in both team's run defenses should dictate that game flow isn't on either of these two receivers side. I can't see either surpassing WR2 status, and would expect both to be in the WR3s.

Notable Players

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals

Despite the gameflow comment, Dalton has a decent high QB2 floor this week as he's facing a pretty injured secondary. He's unlikely to touch starting lineups unless you're either affected by bye weeks or in a deep QB league. Mohamed Sanu should get some chances, but Jermaine Gresham's game from last week shouldn't be chased. A.J. Green and the running game will most likely be the focus of the offensive game plan here.