Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 12 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the first half of the Week 12 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.

 

Week 11 Recap

Greatest Hits: James White (RB, NE), C.J. Prosise (RB, SEA), Zach Miller (TE, CHI)

Telling you that Tom Brady and David Johnson were going to have big games isn't a revelation, but some lesser names came through last week as predicted. James White scored and compiled 63 receiving yards on six catches, despite not carrying the ball a single time. His time in the sun may be over with Dion Lewis back and healthy. Speaking of health, both Prosise and Miller had nice games before suffering season-ending injuries. It just goes to show that the players on your bench are just as important as the ones in your starting lineup.

Greatest Misses: Odell Beckham (WR, NYG), Lance Kendricks (TE, LA), Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)

The Giants have been all over the place this year offensively, making both OBJ and Eli Manning hard to trust in daily formats despite their explosive potential. Beckham managed just 46 yards against the Bears, but should rebound nicely against the Browns this week. The Rams weren't expected to do much with a rookie QB making his first start, but Kendricks especially disappointed. He caught just four of his seven targets and lost a fumble as well. Doug Baldwin, meanwhile, wasn't just pulling in 104 yards in the air. He also threw for his first career passing TD, which we clearly should have seen coming. Beware the Seahawks... they are an offensive force once again.

 

Cardinals @ Falcons - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

David Johnson (RB, ARI) - 160 total yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings defense on the road in Week 11 pretty much cemented DJ's status as the top fantasy player in the land this season. The Falcons pose a much lesser threat, making Johnson the top-ranked fantasy RB in Week 12. His heavy involvement in the passing game (47 REC, 510 YDS) ensure that he won't be shut out due to a negative game script. He should build on his league-leading 12 touchdowns by adding at least one more score in this matchup.

Carson Palmer (QB, ARI) - Possessing one of the top running backs in the league hasn't stopped the Cardinals from being pass-happy this season. Last week Palmer threw 38 passes, marking the first time in a month he had less than 46 pass attempts in a game. He hasn't been overly efficient in those games, throwing five interceptions in the last three games, but he is still racking up yards at a high rate. The Falcons give up more fantasy PPG to quarterbacks than anyone this season, so expect better results and enough fantasy points to make him worth starting in most leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) - The Cards have been giving up a ton of points lately, letting the likes of Minnesota, San Francisco and Carolina rack up 80 points in their last three games. That hasn't come on the ground, however, as the Arizona defense still ranks first in fantasy points allowed to RB. The return of Tevin Coleman to the lineup may cut into Freeman's touches as well. Downgrade Freeman to lower-end RB2 status this week.

John Brown (WR, ARI) - If you thought Michael Floyd was having a disappointing season, Brown is giving him a run for his money. Brown has seen exactly four targets in each of the past three games, catching half of them for a total of 79 yards. Last week he produced a goose egg against Minnesota and has shown that he simply isn't worth playing, much less owning. Atlanta is generous against pass-catchers, but it will still be Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson doing the heavy lifting.

Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) - The rookie takes over the starting role with Jacob Tamme out indefinitely. He makes for an intriguing waiver add in Atlanta's high-scoring offense, just not this week. Arizona hasn't allowed a tight end to score all season, limited the position to 2.6 fantasy points per game. Hooper is a decent RoS stash, but stream somewhere else in Week 12.

Notable Players

Julio Jones (WR, ATL) - The NFL's leading receiver is battling more than just top corner Patrick Peterson this Sunday. Despite coming off a bye, Jones is experiencing calf and knee issues. He should still be in the lineup, but it may be a tough game to rely on Jones for elite production. Believe it or not, he has had three games of less than 30 yards this season and this may be a similar game. To be clear, he should still be your WR1 if you own him in any type of season-long league, but DFS players may want to spend their budget elsewhere.

 

Titans @ Bears - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN) - Mariota kept his streak of throwing for multiple touchdowns alive last week. He has also thrown for at least 270 yards in four straight games. Chicago is firmly in the middle of the pack as far as pass defense, but their lack of offense should work against them this week and beyond. While you should value Tennessee's runners over their receivers, Mariota should still be able to put up at least 250 yards and two TD, with the possibility for much more.

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - The Bears haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3, but Murray has a great chance to break that streak. Chicago's offense is simply in shambles without their top receiver, Alshon Jeffery, and their top two quarterbacks. They could be handing the ball over to the Titans in great field position frequently, giving Murray a great chance to reach the end zone as he has done 11 times this year.

Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN) - Don't be afraid, plug Matthews into your lineup. He's putting up solid WR2 production this season and has seen a big upswing in value since the retirement of Andre Johnson. He has six TD on the season, but had been putting up modest yardage totals to this point. That changed last week when Matthews reeled in nine catches for 122 yards - his first 100-yard effort as a Titan. The Bears rank in the bottom 10 stopping opposing wide receivers, so Matthews could continue his rise to fantasy prominence.

Matchups We Hate

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - Having Matt Barkley behind center isn't going to help Howard one bit. The Bears are also without their top two WR, starting TE and potentially starting guard Josh Sitton too. It will be a surprise to see the Bears muster anything in the passing game, so Howard's stock will likely suffer as a result. He's been explosive at times, posting four 100-yard rushing games, but he's also gone for three games under 50 yards as a starter. It will be tough sledding for Howard this week - fade him and consider other options.

Notable Players

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN) - Henry's totals on rushing attempts the last five weeks are a bit puzzling (2, 1, 16, 9, 0). He isn't on the injury report, so he should be ready to play in Week 12. The question is whether he will be used. If the Titans roll as expected, it could be a chance for Henry to put up numbers in the second half. He's got a decent 4.1 Y/A in his rookie year, but seems like an explosion waiting to happen if he gets the chance. He's a potential punt play this week due to a favorable matchup.

 

Chargers @ Texans - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Melvin Gordon (RB, SD) - I'm guessing the Chargers noticed a big weakness in the Texans' usually stout defense on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. The Raiders' running backs combined for 199 receiving yards, including two wide open touchdown passes. Aside from a couple of prolific rushing performances, Gordon has averaged five receptions a game over the last month. He could very well be a PPR monster this week.

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - Miller came through against the Raiders with his best performance since Week 6 against the Colts, rushing for 104 yards and a touchdown (nearly two). San Diego's run defense is worse than Oakland or Indy, so Miller should stay on the RB1 radar once again. He's been nicked up seemingly all year, but is yet to miss a game and toted the rock 25 times in Week 11. Expect a big workload once again this week.

Matchups We Hate

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU) - Yes, he should have had a long touchdown last week if not for a premature whistle, but that doesn't change the fact he's been a massive disappointment this season. It's not his fault, but as long as Brock Osweiler is his quarterback, his value remains unchanged. Hopkins has only topped 60 receiving yards twice all year and hasn't scored since Week 5. He will be shadowed by Casey Hayward on Sunday, who has been a pleasant surprise since coming over from Green Bay with five interceptions.

Travis Benjamin (WR, SD) - Truth be told, Benjamin hasn't been a major part of this offense all season. Other than two big games in the first month of the NFL season, Benjamin hasn't been worth starting in fantasy leagues. Between injuries and dwindling targets, he has only compiled 11 receptions in the last six weeks. This week he faces a tough secondary in Houston that won't do him any favors. Of all San Diego receivers, only Tyrell Williams could have an advantage by using his 6-4 frame against 5-10 Kareem Jackson.

Notable Players

Philip Rivers (QB, SD) - Derek Carr just touched the Texans for three TD and almost 300 passing yards, but some of the calls and circumstances in that game were questionable at best. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer this season and allow the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league. Rivers has shown the ability to put up numbers against pretty much any team, but playing at Houston isn't an easy matchup. This game should come down to the running backs, leaving Rivers as a QB2.

 

Bengals @ Ravens - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN) - The rookie wideout will be depended on heavily by a Bengals team missing two of its top weapons. He responded well last week, catching six balls for 54 yards and his first career TD. The Ravens are stingy against receivers, but Boyd has the most favorable individual matchup of the day. Playing the slot primarily, Boyd will face an inconsistent Jerraud Powers on the other side. He has become a popular pickup this week, but could still be available if your leaguemates have been preoccupied with Thanksgiving plans this week. He should still come at a cheap price in DFS for another week at least.

Dennis Pitta (TE, BAL) - Cincy's defense has been up-and-down this season, but one area of weakness has been allowing points to tight ends. In what could play out as a low-scoring divisional showdown, a player like Pitta could collect several catches. He hasn't reached the end zone yet this season, but Pitta is tied for second among all tight ends with 49 catches. He is definitely due to score and could do so against a team that has given up six to TE. He could be a valuable streamer this week.

Steve Smith (WR, BAL) - He scored for the second straight week and is getting back to his pre-injury target totals. Smith caught eight of his nine targets for 99 yards last week and is stealing some of Mike Wallace's thunder. In Weeks 3-4, he had consecutive games where he caught eight of 11 targets until getting hurt the following week. He appears headed back to that type of production once again, making him a WR2 in most PPR leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - One could theorize that the loss of Gio Bernard and A.J. Green will force Dalton to spread the ball around more and throw more frequently on intermediate routes, resulting in high volume and fair amount of yardage. The truth is that A.J. Green was responsible for over a third of Cincinnati's receiving yards this season and he cannot be replaced. The Ravens are in the top 10 against quarterbacks for fantasy purposes, so it's hard to rationalize starting Dalton this week for any reason.

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - His carries will see a huge uptick, but that may not translate into fantasy success. The Ravens are the second-stingiest team against RB this season. Ezekiel Elliott managed 97 yards last week, but it took him 25 carries, marking his lowest Y/A since Week 1. Hill is a complete non-factor in the passing game and won't be taking anybody by surprise as the only threat in the backfield for Cincy. He is a TD-dependent RB2 this week.

Notable Players

Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) - Eifert is the next most logical player who stands to benefit from the loss of Green and Bernard, but this is a tough draw for him. The Ravens allow the second-fewest fantasy points to TE this year, with only score against them. Defenses should be aware that Eifert will be targeted more frequently, so don't simply assume that he will jump up to top-five TE status automatically.

 

Giants @ Browns - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Gary Barnidge (TE, CLE) - Simply put, when Josh McCown is in at QB, Barnidge has value. Cody Kessler may not suit up again this season after suffering a second concussion and RG3 isn't quite ready to return. McCown should look for his favorite target often, giving Barnidge low-end TE1 value. It's been a disappointing season for Barnidge, but he finally scored his first touchdown last week. Give him a chance in deep leagues if you stream the position.

Odell Beckham (WR, NYG) - He disappointed last week in Chicago while Sterling Shepard scored for the third straight game. Should OBJ owners start getting nervous again? Given the fact that the Browns are going to be on the other side of the field this weekend, Beckham owners should be ecstatic. Aside from owning the worst record in football, the Browns have allowed the second-most fantasy points to WR this season. It should also be noted that Beckham has scored twice as many touchdowns in November/December games than September/October over his career. He projects as a top five receiver this week.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG) - Manning should be getting even more love than his star wideout this week. The Browns have allowed more fantasy points to QB than any other team this season. Eli won't have to battle 40 MPH winds this week either. The Giants are on a roll, winning five in a row, and should have no problem steamrolling the lesser Browns. Manning will surely come at a high price in daily leagues, but much like Tom Brady last week, he should be worth it.

Matchups We Hate

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE) - There hasn't been much to love about Crowell since Week 4. In the last seven games, he hasn't surpassed 80 total yards in a game. The Browns don't even seem to be trying to run the ball any more. Crowell has failed to carry the ball 10 times in the last three games, probably because he is averaging 2.45 yards per carry in those last seven contests. The Giants should have enough of a lead to force the Browns to go pass-heavy once again. Forget his surprising early season success, Crowell is looking downright droppable in standard leagues.

Notable Players

Josh McCown (QB, CLE) - Looking for a player to rack up garbage time points at QB? McCown may play the Blake Bortles role this week, assuming the Giants have a decent lead in the second half, which is safe to say. McCown won't have to worry about getting pulled for Kessler as he remains out with a concussion and could be shut down for the remainder of the season. He is too risky to start in H2H leagues, but could play out as a good value in daily leagues.

 

Rams @ Saints - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Todd Gurley (RB, LA) - Gurley's fantasy stock is returning at the best possible time for frustrated owners. His early 24-yard TD scamper last week was a welcome sight, although he didn't do a whole lot after that. The Saints could provide more running room, however, as they have to opposing runners all year. Only Cleveland and San Francisco have allowed more rushing TD than the 12 New Orelans has surrendered. His ceiling will still be limited until opponents have to respect the passing game, but Gurley could at least be worth starting once again.

Drew Brees (QB, NO) - In case you weren't sure, Brees is worth starting at home this week; his insane stats at the Superdome have been well-documented. The Rams pose a threat, as they have surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards in the league. That's still not enough to make Brees any lower than the QB6 on this week's overall rankings. This game likely won't be a shootout, so game flow could restrict Brees' overall numbers. He is still a must-start in season-long leagues, even if he isn't the most desirable in DFS this week.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) - Which Saints receiver will breakout this game? The rookie seems most likely, given his matchup with E.J. Gaines, who has graded out at a miserable 38.2 according to ProFootballFocus. Thomas has been mediocre the last couple of weeks, not taking advantage of a choice matchup last week in Carolina. His targets haven't subsided, however, so it would be a mistake to overlook him in Week 12.

Matchups We Hate

Tavon Austin (WR, LA) - Consistency has never been Austin's calling card, but to start him this week would truly be a dart throw. Jared Goff only targeted him twice last week, marking the second time in three weeks he's gotten that amount. Since his 10 catch outburt in Week 7, Austin has a total of four catches in the last three games. The Saints are thought to be a horrible defensive team, but they have improved their red zone defense. In the last three games, they are actually third-best at preventing touchdowns in the red zone. Austin has the speed to break a big play at any time, but if he isn't getting targeted, it can't happen.

Willie Snead (WR, NO) - Snead draws Lamarcus Joyner in the slot and could be in for a long day. The last five weeks his targets have continued to drop (11, 8, 7, 7, 5). He simply isn't producing if he isn't scoring, making him a TD-dependent WR3 even at home. Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas are both above Snead in the pecking order.

Notable Players

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - Ingram appears scheduled to play after passing the league's concussion protocol. How many carries he receives is a big mystery, however. Tim Hightower has been sharing snaps with him for four weeks now and it doesn't appear that will change. Fantasy owners are better off avoiding Ingram, who has done nothing to inspire confidence other than one big game against San Francisco, which isn't saying much.

Kenny Britt (WR, LA) - It's best not to start any Rams receivers just yet, even in a matchup against the Saints. If there is one that may be worth rolling the dice on, it would be Britt. He caught five passes from Goff last week, more than any other Ram. He has the size/speed combo to make plays after the catch and faces an undersized Sterling Moore this week. There's no guarantee of value here, but if you need help at the WR3/flex slot, Britt could be worth a shot.

 

49ers @ Dolphins - Sunday 11/27 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - This should be the game that puts Ajayi back into the RB1 conversation. He had been trending downward in both carries and yards the last two weeks as the Dolphins look to keep him fresh. He may not need 20 carries to break 100 yards against the Niners, however. San Fran has allowed at least 150 rushing yards in seven games this season. Ajayi is a top-five RB play in Week 12.

DeVante Parker (WR, MIA) - It's all starting to click for Parker, who went for 79 yards and a game-winning TD last week after bringing in 103 yards the week before. Those games both came against West Coast teams with better pedigrees than the 49ers, so there is reason to think Parker could surpass 100 yards again. He is getting snatched up in standard leagues, but if he's still available in your league then grab him and start him this week.

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - Kap hasn't led his team to a victory this season, but he has helped quite a few DFS players the last few weeks. Since taking over the starting QB job in Week 6, he leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 260. The Dolphins are playing with a makeshift defense, especially at linebacker. Those deficiencies were masked against rookie Jared Goff and the inept Rams offense last week, but Kaepernick should be able to expose them for a few scrambles. He still doesn't rank as a starter in season-long leagues, but he should be a good value once again in daily leagues.

Matchups We Hate

DuJuan Harris (RB, SF) - While Harris is bound to see some time on third downs, Shaun Draughn is back and sharing time. While Harris has seen his snap count drop three straight weeks, Draughn nearly matched him with nine snaps compared to Harris' 13 in Week 11. Furthermore, Chip Kelly proclaimed that Carlos Hyde is the centerpiece of the offense he wants to run. Harris doesn't belong in starting lineups anywhere unless Hyde is re-injured.

Notable Players

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - A favorable matchup against San Francisco's terrible defense make Landry flex-worthy this week, but expectations should still be tempered. DeVante Parker is eating into his targets as he gets more comfortable in the offense, negating the need to depend on Landry exclusively. Landry did score his second TD of the year last week, but was given a major assist by his teammates on the play. He finished with just 28 yards against the Rams, so don't think that he is back to being fantasy relevant because of the TD alone.