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Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 11 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis for the later games.
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.
Below, you will find part one of our Week 11 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
Raiders @ Lions - Sunday 11/22 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Derek Carr, QB, Raiders - Carr has just traversed through three tough defenses and made it out relatively unscathed. He put up over 300 yards in each of those games with 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He is rewarded with a matchup against the Lions who give up the third-most points to QBs. He is a locked-in QB1 this week.
Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders - The Lions are a bad defense all around and they give up the sixth-most points to RBs. They did hold the Packers to very little last week but the Packers are kind of a mess right now. Murray has just one touchdown in his last six games, but the Lions have given up a league-high 11 rushing scores to RBs. This is a great game for Latavius to get back on track.
Clive Walford, TE, Raiders - He’s not in my top ten but he’s a very good stream this week. He doesn’t have more than two catches in a game this season but he does have three touchdowns in the last four games. The Lions have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends, tied for third-most in the league. I don’t see why Clive Walford can’t score again this week.
Eric Ebron, TE, Lions - The Raiders continue to be the best matchup a TE can get. They give up the most points and touchdowns to tight ends. That includes a tight end score in all but one game this season. Ebron is a very good play this week.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Notable Players:
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - This is actually a pretty good matchup but I can’t bring myself to endorse Stafford. The Raiders give up the sixth-most points to QBs, but Stafford has scored more than 15 points just three times this season. He’s certainly not a terrible streaming option this week but I don’t trust him.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - On the bright side, Megatron has 80+ yards in four straight games, which is pretty good. On the downside he still only has three touchdowns and just one game over 100 yards this season. He isn’t the elite receiver he has been in the past, and that is mostly Stafford’s fault. Either way, the Raiders have only given up four WR touchdowns this season so he should have another solid game even if he doesn't score.
Golden Tate, WR, Lions - I think Tate should definitely still be rostered but it’s hard to have confidence in him right now. He has exceeded 60 receiving yards just twice this season. He is still on pace for about 80 receptions and the Raiders actually give up the second-most WR receptions per game at 15.3. In PPR leagues this seems like a good flex week where he should have seven or eight catches.
Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders - The Lions secondary has played better the last couple of games and in particular, CB Darius Slay has really come on strong. Slay is Pro Football Focus’s #2 corner over the last five weeks and he will be on Cooper all day. Cooper has averaged about 80 yards a game and that is where he should land once again.
Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders - Crabtree is really more of the 1B to Cooper’s 1A than the #2. When Cooper faces a top corner, Crabtree is more than capable of stepping up big time and that could happen again this week. I look to the Jets game as a good example where Crabtree went 7-102-1. Expect a pretty good fantasy WR2 day here.
Colts @ Falcons - Sunday 11/22 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons - Freeman cooled off to a troubling 12 rushing yards on 12 carries in Week 9 yet still had his eighth-straight double-digit fantasy day thanks to eight receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown. Even though the rushing total was bad, I still see no reason to be worried yet. The Colts have allowed nine rushing touchdowns to RBs so there is a good chance Freeman scores.
Jacob Tamme, TE, Falcons - I’m not a big fan of Tamme but this is definitely a good matchup. The Colts have given up 75 yards and a score to tight ends in four straight games. Tamme has a career-high 53 yards a game and 4.8 catches per game. He isn’t in my top ten but he is a good stream.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts - This one is definitely for deeper leagues but Bradshaw may be a sneaky-good start. He hasn’t been too involved yet but he did snag a receiving TD in their last game. I do believe the Colts intend to get Bradshaw more involved in the passing game and this is a great game for it--the Falcons allow the most receptions to RBs. In PPR he is a good deep-league flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts - After a good start to the season which saw Moncrief collect six or more catches in four of the first six games (along with four touchdowns), he has cooled off over the last three. He has just a 9-82-1 line total over those three games. Furthermore his lone bad fantasy game in the first six weeks came with Hasselbeck at the helm. Moncrief had just one catch for three yards in that game. Against a team that gives up the fourth-fewest points to WRs, avoid Moncrief this week.
Notable Matchups:
Frank Gore, RB, Colts - The Falcons are an interesting team against the run. While they give up the second-most rushing touchdowns, they also hold runners to the fourth-lowest YPC (3.7 overall, 3.5 to RBs). It certainly seems like these numbers have to balance out and they have - an RB has not scored a rushing touchdown in the last three games. I still think Gore is a solid play but don’t get fooled into thinking he will definitely score.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts - I’m far less worried about T.Y. Hilton than Moncrief. For starters he averaged a respectable six catches for 78 yards in the two Hasselbeck starts. His ceiling is definitely limited but he will still be a respectable WR2 with the targets he gets.
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons - Ryan is an interesting case this year. Most of his numbers are nearly the same as last year (comp %, Y/A, INT%, sack %) and he actually has a career-high yards per game. Yet he was the QB7 last year and he is just the QB15 this year. Why? He is on pace for the lowest number of touchdowns since his rookie year. Devonta Freeman’s emergence may play a small role but otherwise it still feels like Ryan is a likely bounce-back candidate ROS. The Colts are an average defense, so Ryan remains at the low end of my top ten.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - This will be Julio’s first matchup against Vontae Davis which is pretty intriguing. However, Vontae hasn’t been quite the shutdown corner he was the last couple of years. I’m not worried about Julio. Just for fun, Julio has a 131-1888-9 line over his last 16 games. This should be another elite week.
Jets @ Texans - Sunday 11/22 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Is it crazy if I say none? The Texans lack offensive talent outside of Deandre Hopkins and he faces Darrelle Revis this week. Meanwhile the Texans have not given up a touchdown in their last 10 quarters of football. That was after giving up 41 points in the previous two quarters, but they look different. I’m still starting the obvious guys but not expecting any huge performances.
Matchups We Hate:
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans - Hopkins has a few things going against him this week. He’ll be facing Darrelle Revis, T.J. Yates is at QB and Hopkins missed some practice time with a knee issue. He remains a must-start, but he’ll be in my WR6-10 range instead of top five.
Notable Players:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Jets - Despite the great play by the Texans the last couple of games I think Fitz is still a solid start. I was definitely impressed with the Texans play against Andy Dalton and A.J. Green but I'm not convinced it will keep up.
Chris Ivory, RB, Jets - Ivory bounced back after a couple really bad weeks. Now he faces J.J. Watt and company on the same week that Bilal Powell returns to steal touches. You can still expect him to get around 20 touches and provide a solid day.
Eric Decker & Brandon Marshall, WRs, Jets - The Texans have a decent secondary but no shutdown corners so I am not too worried about these guys. Decker has a touchdown in seven of the eight games he has played in this season. Meanwhile Brandon Marshall does have a touchdown in each of the past two weeks but he also has seven catches on 18 targets for just 67 yards. If he doesn’t score that is two awful weeks. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is a WR2 this week along with Decker.
Nate Washington & Cecil Shorts, WRs, Texans - Shorts came back last week and unfortunately sunk both of their values. Washington had two catches for 32 yards while Shorts had three for 16. They may see a bump with Hopkins on vacation in Revis Island. Unfortunately I’d still avoid either because they will split the targets. Washington remains the better choice if you absolutely need one.
Buccaneers @ Eagles - Sunday 11/22 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Mark Sanchez, QB, Eagles - A mild love, as in I think Sanchez is very streamable here. The Bucs give up the 10th-most points to QBs and that was higher before handling Matt Cassel with ease last week. Sanchez didn’t look so hot out of relief last week, but he played well at times last year so I am happy to give him a shot here.
Mike Evans, WR, Bucs - The Eagles give up the fourth-most points to WRs and Vincent Jackson is expected to miss another week. That means a healthy number of targets for Evans once again. I have him in my top ten this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Doug Martin, RB, Bucs - The Eagles have still given up just one RB rushing TD this season. Martin has slowed down in a big way over the past three games with a 3.2 YPC on 52 carries. I expected a rebound last week and while he did have 100 total yards it wasn’t a great game. I have him as a middling RB2 here.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Bucs - I’m not sure if ASJ is coming back yet but if he does I’d avoid him. The Eagles give up the fewest points to opposing tight ends and have given up just two tight end scores over their last 25 games. No chance I'm playing ASJ this week.
Notable Players:
Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs - Winston saved himself from an awful day last week by finding the end zone with his legs. He now has four rushing touchdowns on the season despite not really running a lot. Although he didn’t play well last week it was nice to see him unleashed a bit. In the Bucs' previous wins they looked to run the ball a lot more. The Bucs were down for almost the entire second half but it was always a one score game and with Martin ineffective they turned to Winston and he got it done. He can certainly put up numbers. I wouldn’t want to rely on him here but he’s definitely not an awful play.
Demarco Murray, RB, Eagles - The Bucs have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 3 and just last week did a really good job containing Darren McFadden. Demarco Murray makes for a really interesting matchup as he has turned around his season nicely after a slow start. Murray has over 100 yards from scrimmage in four of the last five games with three touchdowns. You're not benching Murray but his ceiling is a bit lower this week.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles - Mathews is still going through the concussion protocol and looks highly questionable. He’s been really productive despite playing behind Murray and has touchdowns in four of the last five games. He also has an extremely impressing 7.0 YPC during that span (42 carries). He is very much a flex consideration if he plays.
Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles - I was hoping to see Matthews rekindle the chemistry he had with Mark Sanchez in the second half of last year but they didn’t do too much last week. Without a reason to have more confidence in him I’d probably avoid Matthews this week. I want to see that he and Sanchez can put up numbers before I feel good about him.
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles - Unlike Matthews, Zach Ertz did show signs of life with Sanchez. He even had a touchdown called back by penalty and finished with a respectable seven receptions for 68 yards, both season highs. I’m not ready to jump back on board with Ertz, but he’s a solid stream.
Broncos @ Bears - Sunday 11/22 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos - A cautious love as there is definitely a lot unknown with Brock Osweiler starting. They did seem to have a pretty good connection last week with six of DT’s seven catches coming with Osweiler under center. With a lot of unsafe options for this offense this week, I'm most confident in Thomas to succeed.
Matchups We Hate:
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears - The Broncos have played a little worse defensively the last two weeks but I still have no interest in starting a QB against this team, especially with the fact that Aqib Talib is back after a one-week suspension.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - Jeffery is banged-up and in a brutal matchup. He is a premier talent so he is still startable, but he’ll merely be a WR2 instead of a top-10 option guy. Lower your expectations.
Ronnie Hillman & C.J. Anderson, RBs, Broncos - It looks like for the time being, Hillman is the clear lead back. Last week that did lead to a score but still just 51 yards on 14 touches. I still have very little confidence in this situation and I’d avoid if I can help it. The Bears have only given up one RB rushing score in the last seven games and that was to Todd Gurley.
Notable Players:
Brock Osweiler, QB, Broncos - Osweiler will finally get his first career start and he’ll have some nice weapons. He looked alright in our first glimpse of him last week. This is an alright matchup and I think he is definitely in the streaming conversation. Knowing how inexperienced he is, I’d play it safe and avoid him until we see what he looks like for a full 60 minutes.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos - It looks like he’ll be a full-go this week after being active last week but mostly a decoy. I’m definitely less confident in Sanders than DT but he is still a WR2. We know the talent is there, but it remains to be seen if Osweiler can get him the ball.
Matt Forte & Jeremy Langford, RBs, Bears - At this point it looks like Forte will miss another game, which makes Langford a solid RB2 play. The Broncos keep the yardage low but they have allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games. After playing well against the Rams, I’m not too concerned about Langford here. If Forte were to play, I’d definitely have to sit Langford unfortunately. I expect it would be something like a 75/25 split in favor of Forte.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears - Bennett has been pretty disappointing this season and it’s especially frustrating to see the backup Zach Miller have big days instead. I do believe Bennett is still the top guy and the snap totals reinforce that belief but he’s no longer a sure start. This week I have him outside of my top ten.
Rams @ Ravens - Sunday 11/22 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams - It’s a tough matchup, but Todd Gurley can handle it. In his six starts he has averaged just under 140 yards a game with five touchdowns. Last week he had his lowest total yardage - a mere 89 yards, but he still scored so it was a great fantasy day. At worst I expect something similar to that, and at best he could go back to 150 yards.
Tavon Austin, WR, Rams - The Ravens give up the most points to WRs. Unfortunately the Rams don’t have a very good collection of players at the position and they have Case Keenum throwing the ball. Tavon Austin is the best bet, but he is still just a flex. You hope that he and Keenum can take advantage of the matchup but Austin has just 20 receiving yards over his last two games. If they can’t there is still a chance he does some damage as a runner - he is averaging three attempts and 25 yards per game.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens - The Rams did get crushed by Jay Cutler last week but they still allow the second-fewest points to opposing QBs. With the lack of talent around Flacco I don’t see him doing what Cutler did. Flacco is an easy avoid for me this week.
Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens - Similarly, the Rams give up the second-fewest points to WRs. They held Alshon Jeffery to just 23 yards last week although he was also banged-up. Kamar Aiken is the top WR for this team and while that did lead to 73 yards last week he should fall well short of that this week.
Notable Players:
Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens - Forsett hasn’t done a whole lot this season and it would surprise me if that changed here. He hasn’t exceeded 69 rushing yards or a 4.0 YPC in any of his last four games. On the bright side the Rams have given up a rushing touchdown and over 100 rush yards in each of the last two games, but I just don’t see Forsett continuing that.
Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens - I think Gillmore might be the best bet to score for the Ravens this week. The Rams seem to be a little more vulnerable against TEs than WRs. Zach Miller hit them up for an 87-yard touchdown last week which seems unlikely to happen again. He also had a goal-line touchdown, so I could definitely see Gillmore scoring here.
