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Only Drew Hutchison saved us from the predicted clean sweep of doom for last week’s buys. On the sell side, Mike Bolsinger continued to defy the odds while Nathan Karns and Michael Wacha had rough goes, though Wacha did notch 10 strikeouts. Let’s see if we can’t do a little better this time around.
Editor’s Note: to read about waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.
Starting Pitcher Buys for Week 11
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
Last season, Carrasco came seemingly out of nowhere with a credible Clayton Kershaw impression down the stretch. This was despite a leaky defense behind him. He’s followed that up with similarly gaudy strikeout and walk rates this year. Unfortunately, the Indians continue to be butchers in the field, and Carrasco’s surface stats have suffered as a result. Along with a low strand rate and a moderate increase in homers allowed, Cleveland’s lousy glovework has resulted in a middling 4.38 ERA for the 28-year-old right-hander. Francisco Lindor has been promoted to bolster the defense.
Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
I can tell you from personal experience that owning Ross this year has been incredibly frustrating. (Also on that team’s roster are Stephen Strasburg and Anibal Sanchez, which explains how I’m staring up at the rest of a league in which I’m the two-time defending champ.) Ross is striking out nearly 10 batters per nine, boasts an obscene 62.3% groundball rate, and has allowed only three homers in 13 starts.
So what’s the problem? Well, the major issue is that he plays for the Padres, the worst fielding team in the league by a considerable margin – hence the .367 BABIP. However, he’s also sitting on a 4.4 BB/9 which isn’t doing him any favors. His peripherals don’t really support that mark though. Batters are chasing a little less than they did a year ago, but he’s also pitching more in the zone and inducing more swings that way. It’s possible that the switch from Rene Rivera to Derek Norris is hurting him in terms of pitch framing, but some positive regression is likely regardless.
Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
Some idiot predicted that Walker would be a top 30 SP this year. That hasn’t happened, and many who bought into the rookie’s stellar spring are still licking their wounds from his disastrous start to the season. In his last three turns, though, Walker has flashed the form that made him a top prospect. He’s allowed just four runs over 22 innings with 21 strikeouts against only three walks. Maybe he’s not ready to become the young ace so many of us anticipated, but Walker has enough talent to be fantasy relevant right now. Plus he’s only turning 23 in August, so time is on his side. Those in keeper and dynasty leagues especially might want to kick the tires.
Starting Pitcher Sells for Week 11
Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
Roark was one of the more surprising success stories last season, winning 15 games and posting a 2.85 ERA as the Nats’ fifth starter. Pushed out of the rotation by the arrival of Max Scherzer, he opened this year in the bullpen. He made seven appearances totaling 13 innings before he finally recorded a strikeout. Back in the rotation for the time being, Roark is allowing nearly two homers per nine and owns a middling 2.33 K/BB. Thanks to an abnormally high strand rate, though, his ERA checks in at nearly two runs below his awful 5.51 FIP. With Doug Fister and Strasburg both likely to return from injury later this month, Roark’s on borrowed time. You’ll need to find some sucker who thinks last year was the real deal, and soon.
Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles
Since coming over from Taiwan in 2012, Chen has been a solid if unspectacular pitcher for the Orioles. Last season’s 16 victories and 3.54 ERA earned him some fantasy love. This year, he’s trimmed the ERA even further and bumped up the strikeouts, but there’s no real change in his approach or underlying numbers to support these improvements. Chen is actually serving up more walks and homers than last season, which doesn’t seem like a recipe for continued success.
Alfredo Simon, Detroit Tigers
Simon wasn’t a particularly good reliever, so his successful transition to the rotation last season was fairly surprising. Despite being traded to the American League, he’s actually doing even better this year. His 2.76 ERA isn’t reflective of his true talent. He still doesn’t strike out many hitters, and right now his home run rate is nearly half his career mark. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but a closer look at his batted ball data doesn’t reveal much reason to believe this will continue. Simon has outpitched his peripherals the last few years, so maybe he’s got a certain je nais se quoi. Betting on this level of success going forward, though, feels like a fool’s errand.
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