RADIO
Here we go, into the double digit weeks already. Week 10 is here and ready to make dreams come true. We're here because there is plenty of value calling far down on the player lists in DraftKings' player pool. There are a few big games this week with high projected point totals that we'll want to target for cheaper players in order to work in those bigger names. Let's cut to the chase.
Week 10 Quarterback Cheap Plays
Blake Bortles (QB, JAC): $5,600 - @BAL
Some not so breaking news, the Ravens are truly terrible at defending the pass this year (28th according to FootballOutsiders' DVOA stat, whereas they're 14th against the run) and the Jaguars are much better at moving the ball through the air rather than on the ground thus far. DFS players would do well to take note of Allen Hurns' status with his foot injury, but he has been battling through injuries all year long and it doesn't seem like he'll stop now. Bortles has scored over 26 DK points in three of his last four games, and a matchup against Baltimore should see him get over that roughly 5x value bar again.
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Yes, Cousins had quite a letdown against the Patriots last week in a spot that saw him needing to throw the ball often. To be fair though, Pierre Garcon and crew (but mostly Garcon) were mostly responsible for the letdown with drops and batting the ball up in the air for an easy interception (cough Pierre). Marcus Mariota had some luck on his side with the bounces that found Delanie Walker, but at the same time his amazing performance last week was not entirely pinball related. Mariota was missing his #1 receiver, and Cousins just got his back in DeSean Jackson. Washington is at home and in a prime spot against the worst pass defense in the league, sporting a crummy defense themselves against a hot Saints' offense while also not being able to run the ball effectively themselves. Hopefully enough people got burned by Cousins last week where they don't want to run the same risk this week.
Other cheap plays: Joe Flacco, $5,400 vs. JAX, Brian Hoyer, $5,400 @CIN, Ryan Tannehill, $5,300 @PHI.
Week 10 Running Back Cheap Plays
Matt Jones (RB, WAS): $3,300 – @NO
I know, I just said how Washington hasn't run the ball well. This is a discussion about deeper long shot type plays though, and it's not as though Matt Jones has never shown any signs of life...it's just been a while. This game has the second highest projected point total according to Vegas though (after NE-NYG), so there is a lot of potential here. Alfred Morris has really started to take a backseat to Jones here, even in the small sample size that we've seen from the running game, and Jones should get the goal line looks. Chris Thompson may very well end up being the most valuable back for Washington if they fall behind in a shootout type game, but if Jones punches in a touchdown, gets a catch or two, and touches 50 yards you will at least get about 4x value. It's not supremely enticing, but if you need a cheap RB with a chance at more in a game that should see lots of scoring, here you are..
Theo Riddick (RB, DET): $3,300 – vs. GB.
Speaking of running backs that may very well end up being valuable thanks to falling behind in a high scoring game, here is Theo Riddick. The Packers are coming off of back-to-back losses, not to dig into narratives too much but they should want to flex some muscle, and now get to come home against a Lions squad that has struggled in 2015 to say the least. The Lions defense is going to get carved up and their offense is going to need to be moving, especially since they haven't run the ball well this year either. Look for Riddick to get tons of work in the second half, potentially getting seven or eight catches and always threatening for a touchdown with those looks. If Calvin Johnson is double teamed (or his ankle injury forces him into a decoy role as we saw all too often in 2014), the other guys are going to have to step up.
Other cheap plays that should have higher ownership: LeGarrette Blount, $4,900 @NYG, Jonathan Stewart, $4,300 @TEN, Darren McFadden, $4,900 @TB.
Week 10 Wide Receiver Cheap Plays
Rueben Randle (WR, NYG): $3,900 - vs. NE
If this doesn't pan out I will never endorse him here again. That being said, the Patriots are notorious for taking away their opponent's best offensive weapon. No bones about it, that means that Odell Beckham should see some serious focusing. Larry Donnell is out again. This also means that the offensive burden falls more into the hands of the four headed running back committee, Rueben Randle, and Dwayne Harris. Out of those players who is the one you trust the most? I'll take Randle out of that pack. He has the upside in a game where the Giants should need to be throwing often for 100 yards and two touchdowns. For a shade under four grand I will roll the dice on that.
Chris Givens (WR, BAL): $3,200 – vs. JAC
Kamar Aiken is the de facto #1 receiver for the Ravens, but it isn't really by any merit. Meanwhile, Chris Givens has played his way ahead of Marlon Brown to climb into the starting spot opposite Aiken for the Ravens. Givens is more of a boom or bust guy who relies on long plays, but the Ravens may very well need plenty of points as their own defense surrenders a ton of territory to the Jaguars' passing attack. Givens posted 57 yards on three receptions in his little "notice me" campaign for the Ravens in Week 9, and that 19 yard average is about right for representing what Givens is. Hope for the long bomb.
Cecil Shorts III (WR, HOU): $3,000 - @CIN
If you need an absolutely minimum salary play, Shorts is your guy. Irrationally, he provide a little Monday night glimmer of hope. Rationally, when healthy (and he has practiced in full this week) he averages around nine targets. Nate Washington should also be active, so it won't be entirely the Shorts show opposite of DeAndre Hopkins, but Shorts has looked to be the choice over Washington when both have been healthy before. Washington has the most recent performance in everyone's minds, and Shorts may very well fall by the wayside when players are considering their options are wide receiver. The Bengals should dominate the Texans' defense and it isn't as though the Texans running game is going to help their cause. Hopkins will get many looks, but Shorts will have a good chance at a 5-75-1 line.
Other cheap plays that should have higher ownership: Kamar Aiken, $4,500 vs. JAC, Davante Adams, $4,200 vs. DET, Brandon LaFell, $4,100 @NYG.
Week 10 Tight End Cheap Plays
Eric Ebron (TE, DET): $3,300 - @GB
We checked in before on the Detroit Lions and their prospects against Green Bay. The Lions are going to need all of their receiving weapons. Ebron is fairly touchdown dependent, but this game should see plenty of chances for the endzone to be found. Ebron isn't used as most tight ends are, usually being split out wide in the slot. According to FootballOutsiders, Green Bay ranks as 8th best against tight ends, but dead last against "other WRs" which mostly pertains to the slot man. I'd figure for Ebron to fall somewhere in the middle with this, but if the Lions find themselves in the red zone and just heaving it up to Calvin Johnson isn't working (or he's seeing massively tilted coverage, or again, that ankle is really limiting him), look for Ebron to get the next targets down there. The Packers are the best in the league against #2 wide receivers, which doesn't bode well for Golden Tate. Pivoting to Ebron here is certainly not a white flag move at tight end.
Richard Rodgers (TE, GB): $3,000 - vs. DET
Let's stay in the same game and look at Green Bay's side of things. Richard Rodgers is also very touchdown dependent, but one of the perks of being in an Aaron Rodgers' led Packer offense is that those red zone opportunities come by quite often. Couple this with a running game that hasn't really found itself yet, and Rodgers has a chance at replicating that two touchdown performance, even if the yardage isn't going to approach 100. If you have a bunch of great plays and only have $3,000 left for tight end, this is a solid back end guy who could end up with 12-15 points and return that 4x-5x value while you shoot for the moon with your other slots.
Other cheap plays that should have higher ownership: Julius Thomas, $3,700 @BAL, Benjamin Watson, $4,300 @NO, Jordan Reed, $4,600 @NO.
Week 10 Defense Cheap Plays
Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST: $2,700 – vs. MIA
They'll keep on appearing here if their price doesn't change. They put up 12 points last week against the Cowboys, and now they're at home against the Dolphins. I know, the Dolphins are a different team now under Dan Campbell, but this Eagles' defense is still seriously underrated and if they can corral Lamar Miller and the running game, that means that Ryan Tannehill has to be the one to lead the team. He has been known to make mistakes and not be the most accurate passer. For under $3,000 I'll take a chance with the Eagles again, not to mention Sproles is always a serious return threat.
Dallas Cowboys, D/ST: $2,500 - @TB
Jameis Winston hasn't turned the ball over since Week 4, and last week they did not give up a sack to the Giants. That said, the Cowboys have a far superior pass rush and the Buccaneers will be without standout rookie lineman Ali Marpet. The Buccaneers will also be without Vincent Jackson for another week and Austin Seferian-Jenkins doesn't seem reliable to come back ever at this point. The Bucs will probably look to run through Doug Martin against the Cowboys, but if they can limit him and jump out to a lead against Tampa's poor defense with their strong running game, look for Tampa to need to take some chances.
