X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Plate Discipline Metrics to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League

Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about advanced statistics that give us a leg up on the competition, and help us win our fantasy baseball leagues.

Our first articles were about a hitter’s BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. We then looked at pitchers and their SIERAs. If you didn't get a chance to read those yet, well, you should.

Now we turn back to hitters, and we’ll be checking in on some plate discipline metrics that go well beyond walks and strikeouts. Let's get to it.

 

The Importance of Looking Beyond Strikeouts and Walks

It used to be perfectly acceptable to say that Player X strikes out or walks “a lot” in conversation, but we can do better than that. Let’s look at a big power bat from last season, Nolan Arenado, to illustrate our points. Last season Arenado had a 16.5 percent strikeout rate with a 5.1 percent walk rate.

Arenado is currently mashing, but those stats overshadow what looks to be insane growth at the plate. As of this writing on May 4, Arenado is both walking and striking out 9.7 percent of the time. Now for the million dollar question, is this growth sustainable or just noise?

Here is where the fun can really begin. Instead of just looking at how often a player’s at-bat ends in a strikeout or walk, we can see how frequently they swing and miss, as well as how often they swing at pitches thrown outside of the zone. Why limit ourselves to evaluating the player solely by the end result when there are many data points from within the at-bats?

 

Advanced Plate Discipline Metrics

There are seven items on the agenda. That may sound overwhelming, but I promise that it all comes together neatly. Statistics such as these can speak to two things: how the batter is performing and how pitchers are attacking them. We’re focusing on the hitter here, pitchers come next. You can find Arenado’s dashboard for these stats here (and do the same for each respective player on Fangraphs).

 
Swinging Strike Rate
It’s what it sounds like, how often a player swings at a pitch and misses. Let’s stick with Nolan Arenado as his 2016 has shown growth. We covered how in 2015 he struck out 16.5 percent of the time, and this came with a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate. So far in 2016, Arenado has cut down his strikeout rate to 9.7 percent! How much should we believe? Well for starters, his swinging strike rate has dropped to 6.8 percent thus far. Very interesting, and that certainly leads one to believe there might truly be something here.

 
Swing, O-Swing and Z-Swing Rates
Apologies for throwing three things at you at once, but this works well if you can picture the batter and pitcher locked into battle. These rates for looking at how often a player swings at pitches, both outside and inside the zone.

Let’s go one-by-one here:

Swing rate is simply the number of swings divided by the number of pitches seen. This can speak to overall patience.

O-Swing rate is the number of swings at pitches out of the zone over total pitches out of the zone. Colloquially this can be referred to as “chase rate”, or how often a batter “chases” a pitch outside of the zone.

Z-Swing rate is how often a player makes contact with pitches in the zone over total pitches in the zone. This can shine light on how selective a batter is.

On their own, these stats can’t really provide too much insight. Once a player has a baseline though, then you can really identify changes – for better or worse.

Here are Arenado’s respective Swing rate, O-Swing rate, and Z-Swing rate from 2015 and this season:

Year Swing Rate O-Swing Rate Z-Swing Rate
2015 54.2 percent 38.5 percent 74.2 percent
2016 47.3 percent (-6.9 percent) 30.7 percent (-7.8 percent) 66.0 percent (-8.2 percent)

 

So what those numbers say is that Arenado is:

  1. Swinging less in general.
  2. Chasing less pitches out of the zone.
  3. Swinging at less pitches in the zone.

 
Still with me? Good, because it looks like we’re really onto something here. Arenado appears to have unleashed a new approach in the early going, but just because he is laying off more pitches doesn’t mean he is more successful when he swings. These next stats can help fill that gap.

 
Contact, O-Contact, and Z-Contact
These rates speak to how often hitters make contact with said pitches. You’ll see the same trend from the first set apply here:

Contact rate is the number of times contact was made with a pitch over total number of swings. Making contact is important.

O-Contact rate is how often contact was made on pitches out of the zone over total swings out of zone. There are several hitters who are notorious for still succeeding even on pitches thrown out of the zone. Vladimir Guerrero comes to mind.

Z-Contact rate is how often contact was made on pitches in the zone over total swings in the zone. Those pitches in the strike zone are ideally more hittable.

Here we go again with Mr. Arenado:

Year Contact Rate O-Contact Rate Z-Contact Rate
2015 80.3 percent 64.2 percent 90.9 percent
2016 85.6 percent (+5.3 percent) 72.5 percent (+8.3 percent) 92.4 percent (+1.5 percent)

 
Hey now, positive indicators in every single category. He really does seem to be growing in his fourth big league season.

 

The Big Picture

Now instead of simply looking at whether a guy has struck out or walked, you now have context to analyze how valid the results are to the batter’s process.

It is also imperative that you pay close attention to each respective player’s traits. Do not compare a speedy contact hitter to a big power bat. Comparing a player’s career rates to his current season can be useful, but the most ideal comparison is usually going to be their most recent season.

Sometimes the numbers are not so clean-cut. How about a player whose strikeout rate has gone from 21.2 percent to 21 percent despite big changes in swinging strike rate (13.9 to 17.2 percent) and O-Swing rate (33.7 to 41.4 percent). This player’s plate discipline points to more strikeouts, not less. It’s Yasiel Puig, by the way.

As with every other statistic, no one number or set can tell the whole story. Perhaps a batter is being attacked with more off-speed or breaking pitches. Seeing more inside pitches rather than outside, high versus low, etc. Maybe they’re seeing the same pitches, but struggling with sliders this season. We’re here to examine the bigger picture.

Now you have a much better idea of how well a hitter is swinging the bat. These are more tools with which you can inspect a hot or cold start, identify over and under-performances, and most importantly, further understand the beautiful game of baseball. Did I say that? I meant to crush your competition with, obviously.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel5 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray5 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele5 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons7 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler8 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson8 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele8 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle8 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans8 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic8 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney8 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga8 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith8 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen8 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara8 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele9 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes9 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson9 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic9 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar9 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton9 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert9 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones9 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji9 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee9 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards9 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani9 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson9 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo9 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley9 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque9 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez10 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler10 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel11 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley11 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal11 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes12 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis12 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer13 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw14 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler14 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager14 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz14 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds16 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano17 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad18 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov19 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto19 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin19 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard19 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins19 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist19 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear19 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More