Turning Two: Who Will Save 50 Games?

Welcome back to our fifth edition of Turning Two. We've now discussed who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, who can put up a 20/20, and who can hit .350. This week's topic revolves around the back-end of games; who will reach 50 saves?

Reaching 50 saves is an impressive, yet not rare, feat. Since 2010, three pitchers have accumulated 50 saves; Craig Kimbrel, Jim Johnson (x2), Mark Melancon. Trust me, I'm just as shocked as you that Johnson is on the list, twice!

Being a dominant closer isn't enough to reach 50 saves. It's an all-around team effort, from having a solid set-up crew to not having a completely destructive offense (sorry, Toronto).  For as dominant as Aroldis Chapman is, he's never eclipsed 38 saves in a season. Craig Kimbrel averaged over 46 saves from 2011-2014, but he wouldn't have had that opportunity if the Braves bullpen wasn't ranked first, second, second, and eleventh in bullpen ERA, respectively. You get the idea, it takes a village to raise a closer, or something like that. Enough talk though, let's get to the picks!

Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!

Max's Three

Trevor Rosenthal (STL)

If we had to name a favorite for this topic, look no further. Rosenthal had 48 saves last year (2nd in MLB) and had 45 in 2014, his first season in the closer role. His 22 saves in the second half were tied with Shawn Tolleson among closers.

The Cardinals have been giving Rosenthal plenty of chances in his tenure as the Cardinals closer. Their 77 save opportunities were 2nd among baseball and they finished with 72 in 2014 (T-1st). In fact, Rosenthal lost out on 12 saves in 2015 that were distributed among the Cardinals bullpen.

Rosenthal remains every bit as nasty, chucking a 99+ MPH fourseamer and a changeup that limited hitters to a .113 average. The team's 2.94 ERA was best in baseball while Jason Heyward was a catalyst for the offense when Matt Holliday went down. There are questions about this years version of St. Louis, replacing Jason Heyward and John Lackey with Randal Grichuk and Mike Leake. I'm more worried about the latter than the former, but the Cardinals should remain a NL contender with the return of Adam Wainwright and provide Rosenthal with a chance to break down the 5-0 door.

JB: Rosenthal just missed out on the big five-oh in 2015. His 48 saves were second best in the league, and he was able to drop his BB/9 from 5.37 in 2014 to 3.28. However, for the second straight season, his K/9 also dropped. He also caught quite a bit of good luck in 2015, with a 85.9 LOB% after posting 76.7 and 77.8 in the two previous seasons, and his HR/FB% was down to 4.8. This is why you see his xFIP just up to 3.19 compared to his 2.10 ERA.

As I mentioned, his command was better this past year, but it is still not good enough for me to predict 50 SV. His WHIP the past two seasons are 1.27 and 1.41, and in 2015 he threw seven wild pitches. Rosenthal digressed as the season went on, posting a 3.08 ERA and 1.41 WHIP after the All-Star break. Another issue is LHP set-up man, Kevin Siegrist. He notched 6 SV in 2015, and with Rosenthal's 17 BB in 19 IP versus LHB, Siegrist should be in line for even more one batter saves against lefties in 2016. 

Thanks to the leagues best team ERA (2.94), the most QS in the league (106), and an offense that struggles to score runs (24th), the majority of their games are kept close. But with Rosenthal's command issues, he was very lucky to only suffer three BS in 2015. The luck will even out, and Siegrist will get his fair share of work. This will result in less than 50 saves for the Cardinals closer. 

Jeurys Familia (NYM)

Let me start by repeating one of my favorite fantasy baseball motto's: Never Pay For Saves. Familia was available at a significant value on draft day and emerged as one of the dominant forces in all of baseball. Don't. Pay. For. Saves.

OK, back to the topic. Familia entered 2015 with six saves to his name and left with 43 more. Those 43 saves were third in baseball and came with a 1.85 ERA (7th) and some nasty stuff. His 98 mph sinker is downright filthy, limiting hitters to a .200 average and produced a 12.80% whiff rate. To continue on the unhittable train, his splitter produced a 28.95% whiff rate and the slider 26.69% whiff rate. His 15.9% SwStr% was tenth in baseball.

The Mets did their part giving Familia save opportunities. The team's 71 save ops and 3.43 ERA were fourth in baseball, respectively, headlined by young guns Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard. I see no reason for things to slow down in 2016, with the Braves and Phillies content with rebuilding and the Marlins floating in mediocrity in the NL East. Look for Familia to eclipse his 43 saves from last year and flirt with 50 in 2016.

JB: Okay, Max got me here. I love Familia. His 43 saves ranked third in the league, and for two straight seasons he has increased his K% and decreased his BB%. He finished the season flaunting a 1.85 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Thanks to throwing his nasty sinking fastball (12.5 wSI) a career high 64.5% of the time, his GB/FB ratio rose to 2.70. But thanks to the introduction of a 94 mph splitter, he recorded a career high SwStr% (15.9) and career low Contact% (68.5).

Baseball Prospectus ranked Familia's splitter as the fastest secondary pitch (thrown at least 20 times) in the league. That is just filthy and unfair. The best case to be made for Familia is his workload. He logged 78 IP in 2015, and 77.1 in 2014. That is a lot of potential save chances. 

The New York Mets caught fire in the second half of 2015, and are set to return practically the same crew in 2016. They boast one of, if not, the best rotations in baseball behind Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard which ranked second in QS (101). The Mets as a team earned 50 saves in 2015, barring injury, there's no good reason to believe that Familia won't reach that total himself in 2016. 

Hector Rondon (CHC)

Example B of not paying for saves. After a bullpen shuffle to start 2015 Jason Motte relinquished the save duties to Hector Rondon, who took the role and ran with it. Rondon finished the year with 30 saves, although he finished strong with 18 saves in the second half.

Similar to Familia, Rondon features a nasty sinker that averages 97 MPH and a devastating slider. His slider (7.1 wSL) was 11th among relievers and limited hitters to a .161 average while producing a 19.95% whiff rate. He finished with a 1.67 ERA (5th) and had a 1.10 ERA after the All-Star break, which led all closers.

The Cubs had 67 save opportunities (10th among baseball) and only improved this offseason with the additions of Jason Heyward and John Lackey. If there's one flaw to Rondon reaching 50 saves, it's Joe Maddon. Maddon (wisely) limits his closers and isn't afraid to play the matchup game in late innings. Cubs relievers had 18 saves in addition to Rondon's 30, although it's readily apparent Rondon is the best option to close games for Chicago. Should Maddon let the training wheels off, Rondon will see plenty of save opportunities in 2016.

JB: I can see why Max made this pick, as the Cubs are quite the trend right now. Rondon logged 30 SV in 2015, while adding eight holds due to the usual Joe Maddon bullpen shuffle. Like Rosenthal, however, Rondon experienced a new personal high in the luck department. His .268 BABIP was a career low, while his 80.1 LOB% was a career high. It could be sustainable though, as he made obvious changes to his pitching. He threw his slider 35.6% of the time, doubled the amount from the previous two seasons. He was also able to keep the ball on the ground at a higher rate (1.92 GB/FB). The good news here is how well Rondon pitched during the second half of 2015. After the All-Star break he owned a 1.10 ERA, 2.22 GB/FB ratio, and used that slider to increase his soft hit percentage from 15.6 to 23.1. 

Joe Maddon is Rondon's biggest threat at reaching 50 SV this year. He keeps his closers on a very short leash, and has been successful in the past at using more than one guy in the 9th inning. In 2015, Jason Motte had six saves, Pedro Strop had three, and Travis Wood had four. Motte has since moved on to a new team, but names are irrelevant here. Between new acquisition Adam Warren, Strop, Wood, and maybe even a hint of C.J. Edwards, there won't be any Cubs relievers hitting the 50 mark.

JB's Three

Craig Kimbrel (BOS)

We all know Kimbrel is a monster. He owns the second highest K/9 since his rookie season (14.55), and 58 more saves than any other reliever during those five years. In 2015 he saved 39 games out of 43 opportunities in his first season playing for a rather miserable Padres team. He got a little unlucky based on career averages, with his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% all well above 2014 totals. The 13.6 HR/FB% is much too high, as shown by his 2.46 xFIP which was the lowest of any pitcher in this article. During the second half of the season, his luck began to even back out. He posted a 1.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP after the All-Star break.

This selection is all about the new jersey Kimbrel will be wearing this spring. Boston's offense ranked fourth in runs scored in 2015, but the rotation and bullpen were less than stellar (4.31 ERA, 20 Blown Saves). But in 2016 the rotation looks rejuvenated after the acquisition of David Price, and emergence of young stud Eduardo Rodriguez, and the bullpen (Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith, Junichi Tazawa) could be the best in the bigs. With the offensive production expected to remain relatively the same, and the team ERA expected to decrease, the save opportunities will surely increase. But this time, Craig Kimbrel won't allow 20 of those opportunities go to waste.

Max: Love me some Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel averaged just over 46 saves in a four year stretch with Atlanta and remained every bit as dominant for San Diego. As JB mentions his HR/FB% was unusual for a player of Kimbrel's makeup and unlikely to remain a problem. His 97+ fastball and curveball combo is still fooling hitters, as evident by his 1.73 ERA after the All-Star break. Hitters managed a .185 BAA against Kimbrel (12th among RP) while his 27.2 K-BB% (6th) and 13.20 K/9 (5th) remained among the elite closers in baseball.

The Red Sox managed 60 save ops in 2015 (15th), but they revamped the rotation and bullpen with the additions of David Price and Carson Smith. The offense, in spite of the disappointments from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, finished fourth in runs scored and will give Kimbrel plenty of opportunities with the lead.

My only concern is the Red Sox being "too good", building strong leads from the offense and the bullpen refusing to let teams back in the game. Pure speculation, but with a talent of Kimbrel's level it'll take extraneous circumstances to prevent him from a solid crack at 50 saves.

Wade Davis (KC)

Davis has emerged as one of the elite relievers in baseball after failing mightily as a starter earlier in his career. In 2015, his 0.94 ERA was a league-low and he sported an impressive 0.79 WHIP. He only racked up 17 Saves in 2015, due to Greg Holland beginning the season as the Royal's closer, but tacked on 18 Holds in the mean time and finished the season with a 8-1 record. The guy wasn't even officially named the closer until September 18 for goodness sake.

The defending World Champs were top ten in both runs scored and team ERA in 2015, and owned the third best ERA after the 7th inning (3.06). This led to the third most save opportunities in the league, which converted to 56 Saves. Now that Davis is entrenched as the teams full-time closer, the large majority of the 76 save opportunities will go to him this season. Considering he only has four blown saves in the past two seasons, there is no doubt that this will translate to at least 50 Saves in 2016.

Max: Hard to argue against arguably the best reliever in baseball. Davis led baseball with a 0.94 ERA while his 0.79 WHIP was second among relievers. His fastball did the damage, grading out at 12.7 wFB (3rd among RP) and limited hitters to a .143 BAA, best in baseball.

The Royals, to no surprise from our readers, are really freaking good. Their 76 save opportunites were third in baseball while their 56 saves ranked second. In fact, if you combine Davis' total (17) with former incumbent Greg Holland's (32), you're one shy of 50. 

  The two-time AL Pennant champions enter 2016 as strong as ever. The loss of Johnny Cueto hurts, but he wasn't that effective in the regular season (4.76 ERA) and Ian Kennedy is a solid bounceback candidate. Davis showed no signs of slowing down and is a great choice for 50 saves. Bravo, JB.

Ken Giles (HOU)

During his first full season in the Major Leagues, Giles struggled with his command early on while serving as set-up man to Jonathan Papelbon (10.3 BB% 1st Half). But after Papelbon was shipped to the Nationals in July, Giles stepped in and thrived as the 9th inning man for the Phillies. He finished the season with 15 saves with a 1.80 ERA and an 11.19 K/9. This included nine saves and a 0.69 ERA in August alone. The best news is a high BABIP (.311) and a low LOB% (75.4) show that there is plenty of room for an increase in luck.

Fast forward to 2016, and Giles is now a member of the Houston Astros, who ranked sixth in runs scored and team ERA (3.57) in 2015. Now expecting full seasons from Carlos Gomez, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, the run potential for this lineup is limitless. I am putting all of my eggs in the Astro basket for 2016, including evidently, its closer. Count me in for Giles reaching 50 saves this season, and for many seasons to come.

Max: Been a big fan of Giles and spent more time than I'd care to admit praying for Papelbon to get shipped out of Philadelphia. Turns out neither remains and Giles situation couldn't be better. He joins an upstart Astros team that got tired of rebuilding and won the AL Wild Card over New York in 2015. 

Giles was excellent in 2015, accruing 15 saves with a 1.80 ERA, sixth among relievers. His 11.19 K/9 was fifteenth among relievers while his 3.3 HR/FB% was fifth. His 15 saves all came after the break, impressive when you factor in it's the Phillies. The Astros should give him plenty of chances; as JB mentions, they finished sixth in ERA and Runs last year and lost no major pieces aside from Scott Kazmir. 

I'm going to side with "No" for Giles to reach 50 saves. The Astros only had 39 saves in 2015 (20th in MLB) while their 20 blown saves were tied with Boston and Kansas City. Unlike Boston, the Astros didn't make any major bullpen upgrades. Giles will have a great season for Houston, but he'll fall short of the nifty fifty.

 

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