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Last season, several outfield prospects made their debut and impressed in the big leagues. Joc Pederson had an incredible first half (though his second half performance left much to be desired), Billy Burns flashed blazing speed, Randal Grichuk showed some of the power potential he has displayed in the minors, and Michael Conforto provided a much needed spark for the New York Mets on their way to the NL East Division title and World Series.
This season, there could be many more young outfielders providing production to their Major League teams and fantasy owners willing to add them. Though I don’t think there will be nearly as many providing must-own production as there were last year (when there were 15 outfielders who posted a WAR of 1.0 or higher), there certainly could be some sleeper outfielders out there ready to have a big impact for their fantasy teams. Players like Byron Buxton or Nomar Mazara likely won’t catch anyone by surprise, but sleepers like Tyler Naquin and Scott Schebler could be poised to have breakout seasons and have an impact on fantasy owners savvy enough to add them in the early part of the season and capitalize on their low name recognition.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.
Top 15 Dynasty Prospects: Outfield
Here are the top 15 outfielders for fantasy baseball in 2016:
1. Byron Buxton (MIN, MLB)
Stats: 138 PA, .209/.250/.326, 2 HR, 2 SB, 4.3% BB rate, 31.9% K rate
ETA: Opening Day
It is not a guaranteed thing, but if you ask me, Byron Buxton seems by far the most likely to start in center field this season for the Twins. When Aaron Hicks was traded away, that to me said the Twins think Buxton is ready. Buxton represents a potentially elite option in the outfield for fantasy owners, but struggles in 2015 will make him likely to fall to the lower rounds as many people will not be expecting much out of him. He is worth drafting in the later rounds as he has the potential to hit 20+ home runs and steal 35+ bags for Minnesota. And if you too are nervous about his struggles last season, keep in mind that in Double-A last year, Buxton hit .235/.296/.434 in his first 34 games (152 PA) before turning on the jets in his next 25 games (116 PA) where he hit .347/.422/.564. Give Buxton time to show you what he can do in more plate appearances before you write him off completely.
2. Nomar Mazara (TEX, AAA)
Stats: (from AA) 470 PA, .284/.357/.443, 13 HR, 2 SB, 10.0% BB rate, 19.6% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
The signing of Ian Desmond complicates things as now Nomar Mazara has to compete with Desmond, Josh Hamilton, and Shin-Soo Choo (with the latter two playing on massive contracts making it difficult to want to pull them from the lineup). But if Mazara has shown anything this spring, it’s that his bat is explosive and is ready to compete with anybody for Major League playing time. Mazara has boasted an impressive .375/.394/.500 slash line in 32 at-bats during this Spring Training and it has many believing that he is very close to the majors. If there is an injury to any of the three corner outfielders, expect to see Mazara promoted immediately to help provide some extra thump to the position. Mazara is not worth owning at this point because he has no clear path to playing time, but he becomes a must own player in all leagues if he is promoted.
3. Tyler Goeddel (PHI, AA)
Stats: 533 PA, .279/.350/.433, 12 HR, 28 SB, 9.0% BB rate, 18.4% K rate
ETA: Opening Day
Tyler Goeddel figures to see regular playing time for the Phillies giving their lack of outfield depth (especially after Aaron Altherr’s latest injury) and he could provide some significant value. Goeddel is capable of hitting 10-15 home runs per season while stealing 20+ bags per season as well. To top it all off, many scouts praise his plate discipline and see Goeddel as being capable of hitting above .260, giving him little risk in owning. Though he won’t be an explosive asset for fantasy owners, Goeddel is a medium risk/medium reward outfield option for fantasy owners in 2016. He may not be worth drafting, but fantasy owners in need of some third base or outfield depth could do worse than to turn to the 23-year-old righty.
4. Joey Gallo (TEX, MLB)
Stats: 123 PA, .204/.301/.417, 6 HR, 3 SB, 12.2% BB rate, 46.3% K rate
ETA: Early July
Outside of Giancarlo Stanton, no player in baseball has more power than Joey Gallo. The 22-year-old outfielder/third baseman is capable of blasting 40 home runs in a full season and so therefore has quite a lot of upside. The biggest issues with Gallo is his lack of a clear path to playing time and he has astronomical struggles with plate discipline. Gallo has struck out over 25% at every level in the minors and lately has struck out above 33% of the time at both Double-A and Triple-A. I also expect that Gallo will spend the majority of the season in the minors as the Rangers are loaded in the outfield and Gallo will certainly not be displacing Adrian Beltre at third any time soon. Mike Podhorzer at Fangraphs compared him to Russell Branyan with more strikeouts. As harsh as it sounds, I tend to agree.
5. Tyler Naquin (CLE, AAA)
Stats: 218 PA, .263/.353/.430, 6 HR, 6 SB, 11.5% BB rate, 22.5% K rate
ETA: Opening Day
When Abraham Almonte was suspended, it was widely assumed that there would be a tightly contested battle over who would be his replacement in center field. Tyler Naquin has done everything in his power this March to ensure that it is a no-contest decision. In 32 Spring Training at-bats, Naquin has slashed an impressive .438/.486/.688. Naquin is typically a defense first outfielder, but he has shown in the minors the ability to hit for a respectable average and steal his fair share of bases. Fantasy owners should not expect elite fantasy production, but Naquin can be counted on to hit .260 and steal 10-15 bases if given enough playing time. He is worth owning in 12+ team leagues.
6. Rymer Liriano (MIL, AAA)
Stats: 549 PA, .292/.383/.460, 14 HR, 18 SB, 11.7% BB rate, 24.0% K rate
ETA: Mid-May
Rymer Liriano was on track to become the Brewers’ starting left fielder this season until he was recently struck in the face by a pitch. It did not look good and I would not expect to see him in the majors until Mid-May after an injury like that. If he can return to full form after this injury, there is a lot to like in his bat. He has shown in almost every season in the minors that he could hit 10-15 home runs and has the speed to swipe 20 bags in a full year. When he is back to full health, I would expect to see him regain his spot in the Brewers lineup and produce enough to make him worth owning in 10+ team leagues.
7. Max Kepler (MIN, MLB)
Stats: (from AA) 482 PA, .322/.416/.531, 8 HR, 18 SB, 13.9% BB rate, 13.1% K rate
ETA: Late May
Though he likely will not begin the year with the Twins, Max Kepler should be expected to have an impact on fantasy teams in 2016. Kepler does not have excellent power or blazing speed, but he should be able to provide 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases with a .280+ average if given full playing time. Kepler won’t be a superstar, but if he is promoted by the Twins, he would provide enough value to warrant teams adding him off the waiver wire.
8. Lewis Brinson (TEX, AAA)
Stats: (from AA) 120 PA, .291/.328/.545, 6 HR, 2 SB, 5.0% BB rate, 23.3% K rate
ETA: Late July
Lewis Brinson made incredible strides last season that saw him open the year at High-A and finish all the way at Triple-A. Brinson is the kind of potential five category contributor that fantasy owners dream about. Unfortunately, he has a mountain of players to climb past in order to see regular playing time. Brinson will eventually be a center fielder, but at this point his bat and plus arm would allow him to play anywhere in the outfield. But with players like Shin-Soo Choo, Josh Hamilton, and Ian Desmond at the corners and Delino Deshields in center, it looks to be unlikely that he will see playing time especially since Brinson is not yet on the 40-man roster. But an injury or uninspiring play by Deshields could see Brinson make the jump to the majors. If promoted, Brinson is too talented to ride the bench, so a call up for the talented outfielder immediately makes him a must-own player.
9. Bradley Zimmer (CLE, AA)
Stats: 214 PA, .219/.313/.374, 6 HR, 12 SB, 8.4% BB rate, 25.2% K rate
ETA: September
If Tyler Naquin is unable to hold onto the center field job and Bradley Zimmer tears up Triple-A to begin the year, expect Zimmer to be promoted. The Indians are in a position where they have a legitimate chance to win the division and make a serious postseason run, so they would likely do anything in their power to stay in a competitive state. Zimmer has an electrifying power/speed combo that could eventually make him a 20/20 player if given full playing time. Expect more stolen bases than home runs and count on a decent .275+ batting average with Zimmer. There is a lot of fantasy potential to be had with him, so if it looks like Naquin is struggling, expect the Indians to promote their star center field prospect.
10. Jesse Winker (CIN, AA)
Stats: 526 PA, .282/.390/.433, 13 HR, 8 SB, 14.1% BB rate, 15.8% K rate
ETA: September
It is unlikely that Winker sees regular playing time until at least after the All-Star Break, but if he is promoted fantasy owners better expect him to see regular starting playing time. He is the future for the Reds in left field and he offers a lot of fantasy potential. Owners will be able to count on a .285 or better batting average every season with power that should be able to contribute 20 or more home runs in hitter friendly Great American Ballpark. Owners should not expect much in the way of stolen bases from Winker, but his overall production should be more than enough for him to be worth owning. Since there is no guarantee that he will see playing time until September, fantasy owners would be wise to keep him on their watch list. If he opens up this year tearing up Triple-A, he could see time after the All-Star Break and he has the potential to be a major fantasy contributor in all fantasy leagues.
11. Aaron Judge (NYY, AAA)
Stats: 260 PA, .224/.308/.373, 8 HR, 6 SB, 11.2% BB rate, 28.5% K rate
ETA: September
There are few prospects in the minors with as much power potential as Aaron Judge. Though he only hit 20 home runs last season between Double-A and Triple-A, Judge has the raw power to be able to hit 30 in a full season of action. Because of his 6’5”, 275 lb build, the power-hitting rightfielder draws many comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton (though don’t expect nearly as much power production). So with the potential to hit .265+ with 25+ home runs, why is Judge not ranked higher? Because at this point, there is no clear path to playing time for him. Carlos Beltran is in the last year of his contract and will take up some time in right field, while Aaron Hicks and Chris Denorfia will also eat up some of the time in right. If Judge sees time in the majors, he immediately becomes fantasy relevant and becomes a must own player because of his power potential, but with his playing time entirely dependent on an injury, don’t expect him to see much time before September.
12. Brett Phillips (MIL, AA)
Stats: 98 PA, .250/.361/.413, 0 HR, 2 SB, 14.3% BB rate, 30.6% K rate
ETA: September
Though Rymer Liriano will now miss about a month of action and the Brewers are lacking in outfield depth, don’t expect to see Brett Phillips promoted to take over Liriano’s role. Phillips has immense talent and could potentially be a 15 home run / 20 stolen base guy in the majors, but the Brewers are likely to leave him in the minors to allow him to continue his development and retain some more years of control over the 21-year-old outfielder. If the Brewers decide later this season that he is Major League ready, Phillips would immediately become worth owning in all fantasy leagues because of his five category upside. But at this point, any promotion before September would be surprising.
13. Scott Schebler (CIN, MLB)
Stats: (from AAA) .241/.322/.410, 13 HR, 15 SB, 8.2% BB rate, 19.2% K rate
ETA: Opening Day
To this point in Spring Training, Scott Schebler has not dazzled as some may have expected, but he still appears to the left-handed bat to the Reds’ platooning left field. Schebler has tremendous power and could hit 20+ home runs given a full season. He won’t offer much in the way of hitting for a solid average, but with a potential 20 HR / 15 SB season, there is still a lot to like with the fantasy potential of Schebler. Since neither he nor Duvall will receive regular playing time, owners in leagues with 10 teams or fewer could probably pass on Schebler even with his potential, but fantasy owners in leagues deeper than 10 could consider owning both Duvall and Schebler and count on getting major home run production between the two of them in 2016.
14. Darnell Sweeney (PHI, MLB)
Stats: 98 PA, .176/.286/.353, 3 HR, 0 SB, 13.3% BB rate, 27.6% K rate
ETA: Opening Day
With Aaron Altherr now hurt and the Phillies already lacking in outfield depth, there is a legitimate chance for Darnell Sweeney to get some playing time in 2016. Though he qualifies as both a second baseman and an outfielder, owners should expect the bulk of his time to be spent in the outfield. Sweeney has an intriguing power/speed combo that could be enough to provide 10 home runs and 20+ stolen bases if given a full season of work, right now the only real obstacle to being an MLB regular is his plate discipline which could use some improvement. Though he will likely open the year in Philadelphia, Sweeney is probably only worth owning in 14+ team leagues, but he does have the upside to warrant teams in shallower leagues taking a flier on him.
15. Hunter Renfroe (SD, AAA)
Stats: 95 PA, .333/.358/.633, 6 HR, 1 SB, 4.2% BB rate, 21.1% K rate
ETA: Early August
The San Diego Padres aren’t necessarily lacking in outfield options, but what they do lack is depth beyond their starters. With Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Melvin Upton all likely to start the year in San Diego’s outfield, there doesn’t appear to be a clear path for playing time for Hunter Renfroe, but an injury or a trade would likely be just enough to push him into a starting role or at least fourth outfielder role. Renfroe is a bat with a lot of promise who could potentially hit 20 home runs in a full season, even at Petco Park. If a Padres outfielder is dealt or hurt, fantasy owners should be ready to add Renfroe off the waiver wire as he could be a major contributor in 12+ team leagues.
