RADIO
Often a bold prediction is simply buying into the hype of a certain player, and chasing that down with a shot of wishful thinking. A can-do attitude is a key part of why the best Major Leaguers do what they do. They know they can, therefore they do. So maybe, just maybe, with the help of science and math and junk, if I believe in them, it will somehow transfer through to them and help them succeed. Maybe over Wi-Fi?
This here pessimist is usually the first to spit in the face of emphasised optimism, asking about loose ends and swept under problems, but for the sake of positivity, I am ignoring my vitamin D deficiency (thank you, Seattle's endless clouds) and putting my best predictions forward.
Welcome to my (mostly) positive list of bold predictions for 2016.
Editor's note: Be sure to check out our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.
Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Robinson Cano Has His Best Statistical Season as a Mariner
As both a Mariners fan and fantasy owner of Robinson Cano, 2015 was far more trying than his final stat line of a .285 average, 21 home runs and 79 RBI leads on. He needed to hit .331 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI during the second half just to make up for the putrid mess his first half left behind. At 33 years old, Cano is running low on top-shelf fantasy performances, but with an off-season to nurse nagging injuries and an improved lineup around him, that year will not be 2016. In fact, Cano will have his best season in Seattle, hitting something along the lines of .310 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI. Best part of all of this is he stays consistent all year, completely skipping out on that dance of two halves he has been doing since coming to the Emerald City.
2. Nelson Cruz Crushes Another 40 Dingers
Sticking with my hometown Mariners, I put my name on Nelson Cruz's spectacular 2015 this time last year, and I am staying on the bandwagon for another year. In a signing that was seen as one of the worst of the 2014 off-season by many an expert (especially Fangraphs' Dave Cameron, a fellow Mariners fan), Cruz ignored the naysayers and put up his second season in a row of at least 40 home runs. The uptick in strikeouts Cruz experienced last season when he struck out a career high 164 times and this year's poor spring are all very telling signs that the inevitable decline is coming sooner rather than later. Despite the signs saying otherwise, I feel his close friendship with Robinson Cano will keep him sufficiently hungry and motivated to match his friend's effort.
3. David Price Falls Out of Top 20 Starting Pitchers
There is no denying David Price's greatness. The Red Sox didn't give him $217 million because he was just okay. They gave it to him because he was a beast last year, going 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.076 WHIP and 225 strikeouts. But as fantasy owners know, last year's stats mean nothing in the present day, we're paying for the future, and a return to the AL East full-time makes it very unlikely last year's David Price is the one being drafted. With a career 3.17 ERA against a division he has pitched in nearly every season of his career, there's no surprises here that he's likely to be great, fantastic even, but not elite.
4. Ian Kennedy Returns to Ace Form in Royal Blue
Once a heralded prospect that lived up to that hype with a behemoth 2011 (21-4, 2.88 ERA with 198 strikeouts in 222 innings), injuries and struggles since then have left Ian Kennedy either an inconsistent frustration or an albatross. 2015 started out no different as a terrible first two months caused fantasy owners to throw him overboard in a hurry. From June through August, however, Kennedy returned to that 2011 form, rewarding those who stuck by him with a 2.64 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 95.2 innings. I'm predicting this year he avoids the prolonged slumps of the past, delivering 200 innings that match the best ones from 2015, easily putting Kennedy within the top 30 starting pitchers.
5. Another Rough Year Ahead For Jacoby Ellsbury
There were high fantasy hopes for Jacoby Ellsbury coming into 2015, his second in a Yankees uniform. After starting out red hot, a knee injury derailed his season and he was ice cold upon return from the DL, hitting .224 in 74 games. Not that I wish the man harm when I say this, but I predict that injuries once again derail Ellsbury's season. He took a pitch off his right wrist this weekend, and while the initial tests revealed no break, it is a sign of things to come as injuries seem to seek him out. There's no denying Ellsbury has the talent to be a top outfielder, but without his health, he'll be without an opportunity.
6. Welington Castillo Establishes Himself as a Top Catcher
You may have not noticed it last year, but the man nicknamed "Beef" put up big numbers in just over a few months time last year in Arizona after a couple of mid-season trades brought him there unexpectedly. Castillo had long said all he needed was consistent at-bats to show he was worthy of a starting gig, and as the Diamondbacks' starting catcher, he did just that, hitting .255 with 17 home runs and 50 RBI in 80 games. With the distraction caused by his lack of a defined role completely gone, Castillo will easily enjoy his finest season yet, providing fantasy owners with plenty of home runs and RBI with a batting average that won't kill your team.
7. Brandon Moss Holds Onto the First Base Job All Year
The Cardinals decision to bring back Brandon Moss after a down season has been met with open questioning. The most common of these questions is why not give the younger, cheaper and arguably equally as talented Matt Adams a chance to win his position back? But the Cardinals aren't perennial playoff contenders by being boneheads. Not only does their gamble on a Moss rebound pay off, he completely rights the ship and rewards his everyone with stats in the neighborhood of .250 average, 25 home runs and 80 RBI, more in line with his best years in Oakland.
8. Byung Ho Park has Jose Abreu-like Rookie Season
Jose Abreu's rookie season in 2014 was a magical treat to all the owners who took a leap of faith on the young Cuban slugger as he delivered in a big way. Like a .317 batting average, 36 home run, 107 RBI way. The Twins will reap a similar rookie year from new first baseman Byung Ho Park. The Korean masher will have no problem adjusting to the Majors, hitting over 30 home runs, driving in a 100, all while maintaining a batting average just below .300. With a .323 average, three home runs and nine RBI already this spring, the gears are already in motion for Park to quickly became a fantasy darling.
9. Jose Berrios is the AL's Top Rookie
Sticking with the Twins, fifth starter nominee Jose Berrios, arguably one of baseball's best pitching prospects, has been fantastic in limited work as he makes a bid for the job. After going 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 175 strikeouts in 166.1 innings last season in the minors, it isn't surprising to find Berrios enjoying success during his first Spring Training. Unlike another can't miss pitching prospect, the Rays' Blake Snell, Berrios plays for a team with a weak rotation that needs a player with his strikeout and run-prevention potential to step in if this team is going to make a serious playoff push this season. I predict he does that in a huge way when the team recalls him in May, as he goes on to win around 12 games, strikeout at least 100 batters and keep his ERA under 3.25 on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year award.
10. Yoenis Cespedes Gets Caught Up in the Spotlight, Production Suffers
One of Spring Training's biggest stories has been Yoenis Cespedes and his vehicular decadence. Sports news outlets were reporting on what new fancy car the Mets' star outfielder would drive to Spring Training each day at one point. While I believe in the difficulties dealing with the media in a huge market like New York, to find Cespedes is not only embracing that media but being attracted to it is worrisome, like in a Yasiel Puig boneheaded way. I predict Cespedes gets lost in the self-gravitating circus of constantly needing to be "The Man" and he performs near his pre-2015 levels of 20 or so home runs, 80 or so RBI and a .260 batting average.
