Nick Mariano - RotoBaller

Pitching is a beautiful monster. It's such an elegant art that presents us with a nearly endless stream of data points to pick apart. On the one hand, this gives us a lot to explore and discuss, on the other hand it means there’s plenty of digging to do. We’re here today to talk about... Read More

Welcome to this little discussion on batters who are smoking the ball. I wrote a similar column a few weeks ago, and thought it would be fun to make this a regular column throughout the season. When analyzing hitters, we love seeing that they’re making solid contact and really putting a charge into the ball.... Read More

Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about advanced statistics that give us a leg up on the competition, and help us win our fantasy baseball leagues. Our first articles were about a hitter’s BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. We then looked at pitchers and their SIERAs. If you didn't get... Read More

Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about winning strategies and advanced statistics that help us dominate. Previous lessons have been focused on hitters, as we’ve explored BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. Now we turn our attention to pitchers and their SIERA.   Why should I care about SIERA? You’re probably familiar with ERA... Read More

Welcome one, welcome all, to this look in at the leaderboard for hitter’s average exit velocity as of the beginning of April 19. Hopefully you've already read about hard hit rates, if not please click this! This is going to be a quick hitter, and some of these names can be presented with little comment.... Read More

Welcome to this little crash course on hard hit rates. Use this helpful tool in the battle for fantasy baseball supremacy. Hard hit rate relates to several things: the velocity at which a baseball leaves the bat after contact is made, the hang time, the angle at which it is hit, amongst others involved in an algorithm... Read More

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can be disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats,... Read More

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. PITCHf/x is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to help fantasy owners make this determination for mound breakouts and busts alike. The first data point, and the easiest to understand, is... Read More

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have... Read More

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. Some of this is unpredictable, but we can and should predict some of... Read More

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home... Read More

To this point, this column has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful... Read More

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff... Read More

In the first post of this series, I referenced that Chris Davis's BABIP is not explained by that post alone, and that we would consider him again in the future. He was not considered in Part 2. He will be considered here. Davis managed an above average overall BABIP of .319 in 2015, despite the... Read More

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI--and maybe more.... Read More

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