Second Half Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitching Sleepers

Starting Pitcher Sleepers For The Second Half

For this week's column, I am going to discuss three starting pitchers who are second half sleepers in fantasy baseball. These pitchers are ready for a stronger second half after some struggles to start the year. Not coincidentally, all three have a history of improving beyond the All-Star break.

 

Chris Tillman - SP, BAL

Owned in 44% of Yahoo! Leagues

Last year, Tillman began the season as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, with a 3.95 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 111.2 innings pitched before the break. Then, he went on to strike out 90 batters in 94.2 innings pitched after the All-Star break, posting a 3.42 ERA and only allowing a .216 batting average to opposing hitters over that span.

It's hard to pinpoint the exact cause of that second half resurgence, but Tillman is poised to repeat history in 2014. His 4.11 ERA to date is far from impressive, but considering that number was at 5.20 in early June, he has given fantasy owners a lot to look forward to. For whatever reason, it just seems to take Baltimore's supposed ace some time to get into a groove each season. In 2012, Tillman didn't really pitch before the All-Star break, but was superb afterwards, with a 3.24 ERA in 14 games started.

Though not a tremendous strikeout pitcher, Tillman did post a career-high 7.81 K/9 ratio in 2013, with a 8.56 K/9 ratio during the second half of the season. He should see a rise in that number, which currently sits at 5.63, as this season continues on, as well. If he can continue to work on his mechanics, which will include focusing on hitting spots and using his cutter less often, and get his confidence back up, he should revert back into the All-Star caliber pitcher that he was in late 2013. By the end of the season, Tillman will likely be owned in more than 44% of Yahoo! leagues, as he currently is. For now, he is an AL-Only and very deep mixed league fantasy option, but if history is any indication, Tillman will soon become a viable option in almost all leagues, especially with an offense like Baltimore's.

 

Wade Miley - SP, ARI

Owned in 22% of Yahoo! Leagues

Like Tillman, Miley enjoyed a much better second half than he did first half in 2013. His 4.01 pre-All-Star break ERA was trimmed down to a 3.55 ERA by season's end. His second half numbers included a 2.93 ERA and a .241 opposing batting average.

He has suffered through a similarly strenuous first half in 2014, with a less-than-impressive 4.18 ERA over 127 innings pitched for the Dbacks. His lack of strikeout dominance throughout his career is not concerning, seeing as he has boasted a 47.8% ground ball percentage for his career, though it may be a bit unappealing for fantasy owners. That said, even through the struggles he has endured in 2014, he is putting up a career-high 8.36 K/9 ratio to date. He also isn't walking many batters, as his 2.69 BB/9 ratio is significantly lower than his 2.93 BB/9 ratio in 2013.

If Miley can continue to make opposing hitters whiff without giving them free bases, chances are he will see his ERA drop well under 4.00. However, given his unlikelihood to accumulate many wins with the lowly supporting cast around him, Miley may not be all that attractive in shallow mixed leagues, as there are probably better alternatives available on the waiver wire. The 27-year-old former All-Star should be saved for deeper mixed leagues, but his K-rate can make him viable in most leagues with just another start or two.

 

Marco Estrada - SP, MIL

Owned in 35% of Yahoo! Leagues

Estrada hit his stride as a starting pitcher in 2012 after spending parts of four different years in the bullpen for the Nationals and Brewers. He found immediate success, with a 3.64 ERA in 2012, and followed that up with a 3.87 ERA in 2013. Fitting the theme of this column, Estrada has stumbled upon some adversity in the opening half of his 2014 campaign. Through 109 innings pitched, the 31-year-old righty has managed just a 4.95 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

Once again, however, Estrada is no stranger to the slow start. A year ago, he crawled into the All-Star break with a horrid 5.32 ERA, but settled down the rest of the way, posting a 2.15 ERA and allowing a .165 opposing batting average for the second half. His K/9 and BB/9 ratios improved dramatically, as he found himself more comfortable locating the ball. Despite his struggles thus far in 2014, his numbers are actually equal to, or in some cases better than, his first half stats last year. He is allowing less hits, but is walking more batters (3.0 BB/9, up from 2.3) and striking out less (7.68 K/9, down from 8.05). Estrada is throwing his fastball 56.5% of the time, down from 58.9% last year, and is relying more heavily on his changeup, 28.4% of the time as opposed to 24.5% in 2013.

As he continues into the second half of the season, he must work on throwing his fastball more often and hitting his spots as he did in past years. For now, he is just an NL-Only and deep mixed league fantasy option, but if he begins to hit his spots and get into a rhythm as he did in 2013, he may become a viable option in most mixed leagues as one of the better starting pitching sleepers in all of baseball for the second half.

None of these three sleepers are guaranteed to be legitimate fantasy options going forward, but there is reason to believe that each of them will pitch themselves onto more fantasy rosters as the season goes on, as they all have in the past.