RADIO
If you've been keeping up with Warning Signals, you'll recall that the past few weeks have sort of alternated between discussions about upper tier studs and border line starters. Given all of the fantasy playoff implications involved, it seemed like the proper formula to follow going into the later weeks of the season. Heading into Week 15, now would be a good time to start going back to mixing and matching those two groups of running backs.
The three names you'll see listed this week fall into three separate categories; one is a legit RB1, the second could easily be a RB2, and the other is a high-end flex play. All have the potential to win (or lose) you a fantasy matchup during the playoffs, yet they're each dealing with an poorly-timed hiccup in their production.
Before we dive into the names, now would be a good time to insert a friendly reminder about last-minute pickups. With most leagues ending in Week 16, that only gives you two weeks remaining to finalize your roster for championship week. There's a pretty good chance most of your lineup is set barring injury, so it might be difficult to find a guy you'd be willing to start but that doesn't mean you can't play defense. If you're sitting on a guy like Alfred Blue, a running back who almost certainly won't find a way into your lineup, why not scoop up Tim Hightower or Brandon Bolden just so your opponent can't have him? Sure, it's a sneaky strategy but you're not breaking any rules and you still have to drop someone to acquire him. I know that's a bit off topic, just felt like sharing some random roster advice before getting into the meat of this week's piece.
Running Backs Sending Out Warning Signals
Matt Forte – RB, CHI
I feel as if fantasy owners are split down the middle when it comes to Matt Forte. Most people have their minds solidly made up about the guy as they either believe in his talent even at 30 years old or don't trust him as a legit fantasy commodity. This year, the emergence of Jeremy Langford raised some additional questions about Forte's workload. Even with that extra question mark, he's still producing at a high enough level to continue to be a solid RB1 down the stretch.
If you're a Forte owner like myself who is still a believer, you might be wondering why I decided to add him to this week's list given the fact that he's scored a touchdown in two straight games. The worry that Langford would eat too much into the workload for Forte to be effective was a bit premature. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that Langford's touches are somewhat irrelevant of late. Over the last two games, Langford has 28 touches compared to Forte's 37. More importantly than that, however, is that Forte does indeed have the only two touchdowns among the two backs over that span. It's safe to say that the Bears still trust in Forte even at his older age.
Basically, if you're worried about trusting in Matt Forte because of Jeremy Langford, don't be. He's getting enough usage in order to justify his ranking as a top-10 fantasy running back even with Langford stealing away touches. Besides, last I checked touchdowns count more than yardage so as long as that stays in Forte's favor he'll be just fine. At 30 years of age it's probably in his best interest that they're limiting his workload anyway.
Charcandrick West – RB, KC
Here's a running back who has literally been at every level of the position this season. Charcandrick West started out as third-string behind Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, was promoted to the backup over Davis, then became the starter after Charles went down, got injured himself, and ultimately became part of a timeshare with out-of-nowhere back Spencer Ware. Now, with Spencer Ware nursing a rib injury of his own, it's sort of unclear what exactly West's role is in the offense.
West is in a weird spot since his path to fantasy stardom now rests on the health of someone else. If Ware were to miss any time, especially this week against a tough Ravens run defense, West has the potential to end up a high-end RB2. Both backs have shown they have the potential to be a legit starter in the NFL so the second either player takes full possession of the starting gig, we're looking at a must-start asset.
Ware didn't finish Sunday's game against the Chargers and his recent x-rays on his ribs came back negative. The "warning signals" aspect of West's game is the simple fact that he's stuck in a timeshare whenever Ware is healthy. The two had been pretty much splitting the workload 50/50 against San Diego so we're in a holding pattern until more information becomes available in regard to Ware's injury. Personally, I would start West even if Ware were active. Like I said, for all of Baltimore's faults this season they're actually defending the run fairly well. With the Chiefs eyeing a playoff spot, they might decide to limit Ware's touches anyway knowing that they have a viable back in West.
Javorius Allen – RB, BAL
When Justin Forestt was ruled out for the remainder of the season, fantasy owners were chomping at the bit to scoop of Javorious Allen. For the man they call Buck, there was a huge opportunity to become the lead back in a shaky offense that needed a spark. Unfortunately, things haven't exactly panned out the way anyone would have hoped in regard to fantasy.
Since becoming the starter back in week 12 against the Browns, Allen hasn't really done a whole lot on the ground. In fact, aside from one big game that was padded by receiving yards against the Dolphins, Allen has been pretty disappointing. Here are his rushing totals over those last three games: 12 for 55, 17 for 63, and 8 for 14. Suffice it to say, he's been fairly mediocre. Throw in the unnecessary breakout game from Terrance West and Allen is looking at flex play status at best.
Chances are you weren't really relying on Buck Allen in some major capacity outside of a flex spot anyway, especially in a playoff matchup. This is a situation I'd prefer to avoid if I can as there's plenty of other usable pieces that are out there worth relying on over Allen. On top of it all, the Ravens just aren't a very good offense to begin with and that's even more true now that Jimmy Clausen is under center. With a fantasy championship hanging in the balance, you should look elsewhere for a flex play.
Updates From Last Week
Todd Gurley –RB, STL
Todd Gurley ran for 140 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions in week 14. All is right in the world. Deploy him as you normally would.
Devonta Freeman – RB, ATL
As expected, Devonta Freeman's big bounce-back game didn't come against the Carolina Panthers, as the Falcons were absolutely smacked on Sunday. Freeman had just 40 yards on 12 carries but could have had more if Atlanta was able to sustain any sort of rhythm on offense. Freeman will get another shot at it against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, but with yet another matching against the Panthers on deck in Week 16, it'll be hard to be all-in on him. Unfortunately you're probably stuck starting him at this point unless you have some serious depth at the position.
Alfred Blue – RB, HOU
Either the Houston Texans are lying about the severity of Alfred Blue's back injury or he's simply not trustworthy in their eyes. Whichever the case may be, Blue is droppable after not seeing a single carry in Sunday night's loss against the New England Patriots. Unless head coach Bill O'Brien comes out and gives a clear indication as to what Blue's role will be going forward, there's just no way to justify owning him anymore let alone starting him.
