RADIO
Is there any position in fantasy where a sleeper pays off more than at running back? While all your league-mates are scrambling to reach and overpay for their first and second running back, those who employ more value based draft strategies feed off of their leagues impatience and are rewarded with strong players at both wide receiver positions, tight end, and their FLEX. However, even the best laid plans go awry if you're not looking at the right players as you get deep into the draft, and as you get into finally drafting your RBs it's going to be paramount that you take the best ones there with the upside to take the RB1 role every team needs.
All ADPs based off position in a 12 man standard draft.
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Isaiah Crowell - Cleveland Browns - ADP 7.05
My personal favorite back from the 2014 class, Crowell showed early on that he had a nose for the endzone with a two touchdown performance in week one of 2014. When Ben Tate went down, the team turned to a mix of Crowell and Terrance West as their backfield and Crowell would prove to be more efficient than West in addition to being less of a locker-room problem. West would spend the year getting into arguments with coaches that would result in him being left behind in the depth chart this year.
Crowell has already spent the entire offseason with the first team as their lead back but now has to fight off another talented player in Duke Johnson, who will actually be on this list a little further down. Johnson projects to be this years passing down back with the Browns giving Crowell the opportunity to prove his value on early downs. Crowell will be running behind one of the best offensive lines the league has to offer with three starters finishing amongst the top 10 in their position for run blocking (Joe Thomas, John Greco, and Joel Bitonio) and they could have had a fourth if Alex Mack hadn't been lost for the season early in the year.
Running behind a top line is already a huge boost to a players value and Crowell's mix of timing and vision is what makes him a very dangerous player for opposing defenses. With the situation and his own talent aligned, there's a potential RB1 sleeper brewing here.
Shane Vereen - New York Giants - ADP 7.09
With Rashad Jennings suffering an injury every year of his career and Andre Williams' complete lack of passing game ability, the Giants added Shane Vereen in free agency. Running a west coast passing offense, a pass catching running back like Vereen becomes an integral part of the McAdoo offense. With no one challenging him for his role, and even reports stating that the Giants see Vereen as more than just a pass catching back, Vereen becomes a safe high floor pickup for a fantasy team in need of a starter. We all already know the kind of player Vereen is, so the upside is limited for as long as Jennings is healthy, but if injury strikes again (which it's very likely to) then who knows what the Giants plan to do with Vereen. Perhaps seeing 10+ carries a game as well as 5 catches becomes the norm at that point.
Maybe they'll even plan ahead and use Vereen as a means of not depending on Jennings to keep him healthy. Regardless, this is a safe floor for a fantasy need in need.
Duke Johnson - Cleveland Browns - ADP 8.09
As mentioned earlier, Duke Johnson projects to be this years pass catching back for the Browns. That's a role with some questionable value seeing as the Cleveland quarterbacking and passing game situation isn't particularly good. However, Johnson is actually a very capable runner who's only being put into a role because of Crowell's potential. If Crowell does falter, or succumbs to injury, Johnson's now the one running behind that top offensive line while also having the boost of being a strong pass catcher.
Johnson is more of a stash than a dependable week 1 player.
Devonta Freeman - Atlanta Falcons - ADP 9.02
Devonta Freeman came into the league with a lot of hype last year being pegged as the guy expected to take over for Steven Jackson and see significant playing time in his rookie year. I was definitely one of those people saying that. Unfortunately, that never came into fruition and instead Freeman was used more as a pass catching back on a team that had one of the worst offensive lines in football. A year later, a new coaching staff has come onboard and of the most important names there is Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan runs the very famous zone running scheme that has made backs like Alfred Morris and Arian Foster into highly productive RB1 backs. You're probably saying now, "wait the Falcons drafted a RB this year didn't they? Devon something?"
You're thinking of Tevon Coleman but there's reason for why Freeman's here. Freeman's spent all of the offseason running with the first team. Some might say that's just veteran treatment (unlikely, he's only in his second year), the truth is more that Coleman isn't a back that fits into Kyle Shanahan's zone scheme. Impatient and not willing to set up his blockers, he's not suited to play the kind of finesse game that Shanahan asks for. While Coleman is likely to play a role this year, unless he unprecedentedly develops the skills required to play in this scheme within the next month, Freeman is on route to see at least 50% of the carries, and maybe more if he proves to be effective since he is an actual fit for this scheme.
Freeman's ADP is cheap, the ceiling is there because of the scheme and so is the floor since Freeman is now one of only two pass catching running backs on the roster, and the only one of those two who can still run between the tackles. He might not be the safest week 1 fantasy starter, but he can be, and more importantly, he can be that surprise RB2 that your team needs.
Reggie Bush - San Francisco 49ers - ADP 10.12
Here's a player getting undervalued for little reason. Reggie Bush isn't the same flashy name he was at the start of 2013's season when he had just arrived on the Lions and went on to have one of his best seasons ever as a pro, but that doesn't somehow mean he isn't talented enough to keep putting up numbers. Since 2011, Bush has only seen injury twice, once in 2013 when during a pre-game warmup he hurt his calf and another last year that kept him from playing full time with the Lions. Two full years went of Bush being completely healthy before he almost had a third so the whole argument of Bush being a major injury risk isn't entirely true anymore. Bush is obviously not the kind of player who can be expected to take the full load but as a pass catching back behind Carlos Hyde, he can provide some strong value potential.
However, the good news doesn't stop there for Bush, Hyde was injured last month and that gave Reggie Bush tons of work with the first team during OTAs. With the coaches getting a first hand look at the very talented Bush in practice, it's only going to bode well for his chances of eating into Hyde's carries and them becoming more a 1-2 punch than a split role committee. This is an easy value pick that has RB2 upside if the situation becomes right, especially considering all the losses to the 49ers defense over the offseason which might leave them asking for more of the pass-catching RB than the ground one.
Matt Jones - Washington Redskins - ADP Undrafted
Oh yeah, here's where things get a little wonky. Matt Jones is on my short-list of sleepers this year and I'm going to try and convince you to put him on yours. Going at a perfect price of being completely ignored in drafts, Jones will be the immediate 3rd down back for the Redskins. Alfred Morris passing game issues have been well documented in the fact that he currently averages 12 receptions a year. Jones is coming in to immediately take that role and potentially even more, as many reports have him impressing during the non-contact portion of OTAs. That might not seem like it means much, but here's why it does.
Matt Jones is the only running back on the roster that the entire coaching and management staff has connection to. They're not committed to Morris, who is on the last year of his contract, and they're probably looking to get Matt Jones to be their next running back. First year Redskins GM Scot McCloughan compared Jones to Marshawn Lynch during those June OTAs, and he's been well known as one of the best talent evaluators in the NFL. With how bad the Redskins defense is looking entering this season and how weak their offense is likely going to be, there's a lot of opportunity for Matt Jones to see the field as the Redskins fall behind often early on in the season. Those early games might be the precursor to a huge breakout from the rookie.
