RADIO
Draft preparation can be broken down into three stages. Stage one occurs during baseball's offseason. From November through mid-February when pitchers and catchers report to camp, fantasy owners should be letting all of the offseason information wash over them. Even the most casual fantasy player can handle stage one.
Stage two occurs from the time that camp starts until early-mid March. This is the time of year where you should be focused on ranking the players the way that you see fit. This requires a lot of research on projections which means finding a website that you trust to help you along the way (obviously, those reading this have chosen the right site). This type of preparation is certainly key and is covered by any fantasy player that has real hopes of contending in their league.
Unfortunately, this is where most of us stop. Only the best fantasy players move on to stage three of draft preparation, that being exploiting ranking deficiencies. In my opinion, this is the most important stage. It is the culmination of all the information that you read before camp and all of the projection work that you've done for the past month. Stage three is all about taking that work and optimizing your draft plan by studying public opinion, comparing it to your own ranks, and coming up with the most efficient draft possible.
This season, RotoBaller's lead writers have done a spectacular job putting together comprehensive ranks via the rankings assistant tool. This tool not only provides great rankings, it goes beyond pure ranks and helps us with stage three by showing how our RotoBaller ranks stack up against other major fantasy websites. Using that rankings tool and some projections of my own, I have identified three shortstops that I see as being overvalued.
Shortstops We Dislike
It's important to note, I'm not saying that these are bad players or that you shouldn't draft them at all. These players are simply being drafted and valued by the public at a level that I am not comfortable with. I'm not avoiding them, but I'm certainly not taking them in the areas of the draft where they are currently being chosen.
ADP (overall): 64th | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 84th
Last year was the year of the super-prospect. It seemed as if almost every top prospect was not only called up to the show, but was also successful in making the transition. Seager was called up later than most of the other top prospects, but his first cup of coffee in the Majors was successful. Seager hit .337 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. Seager is certainly a sexy pick in the 60-65 overall range, but I rather continue to load up on sure things like Adrian Beltre at that stage in the draft.
Shortstops generally take a little bit longer to find their way in the big leagues, although that trend was certainly disproven last season by Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor. Still, if I'm in a redraft league I would rather see Seager prove himself this year before I started using a 6th round pick on him.
ADP (overall): 139th | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 164th
Russell got more than just a cup of coffee last season in the Majors, receiving 475 at-bats while playing shortstop for the young and revitalized Chicago Cubs. While Russell proved to be an upgrade over former Cubs' former prospect darling Starlin Castro, he did not have a stellar year by any measure at the plate. While he did manage 13 HR, Russell struggled to a .242 AVG while only stealing four bases.
While I believe Russell can certainly improve on those numbers for last season, especially the average, the real catch for me is that it seems as if he is destined to bat 9th. I know, I know, you're screaming, "but he's in the NL!" Well, Joe Maddon is a proponent of having the pitcher hit in the 8-hole which resulted in Russell hitting 9th in 116 of his 137 starts. Russell is likely destined to be a top-of-the-order hitter at some point in his career, but with the addition of Jason Heyward this offseason I can't see that move happening quite yet. Hitting 9th, behind a pitcher most of the time, is going to suppress some of Russell's RBI and R output while limiting his total number of AB. I believe Russell will have a solid year, but his situation gives him a lower ceiling than some other shortstop options in the same range of the draft.
ADP (overall): 154th | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 244th
Listen, I never feel good about calling an Elvis overrated, but I stand by this one. RotoBaller's ranks have Elvis being 90 spots worse than his average draft position and even that may be generous. Much of Andrus' value in the past came on the legs of his ability to steal bases, pun intended. Those steals often put him in scoring position too, making him a dangerous player at the top of the Texas Rangers order. However, Andrus turns 28 this season and is starting to show some signs of declining speed. He stole only 25 bases in 2015, the second lowest total of his career. Additionally, he scored just 69 runs, the lowest total of his career. Andrus traditionally has hit 1st or 2nd in the Rangers lineup in about 84% of his career games started prior to 2014. That changed last season when Andrus spent the majority of his time in the 6/7 hole (112 out of 159 games). Moving Andrus down in the order this year means that the SB and R numbers that used to carry his fantasy value continue to be depressed, leaving you with a no-power, sub .270 hitting shortstop. You can do better!
