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Reviewing Jeff Kahntroff's Bold Predictions for 2016

What Appears In This Article? hide

Back in March, RotoBaller staff writers (including yours truly) published a series of bold predictions for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Now that the year is in the books, it's time to look back at how we all did.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Grading the Predictions

(1) Jonathan Schoop will lead all second basemen in home runs.

Fail!  Schoop did knock 25 balls out of the park this year despite previously never hitting more than 16 homers in a season as a minor or major leaguer. But the prediction was not that he would set a career high; instead, I went bold and must pay the consequences. Schoop's 25 homers were merely 7th among second basemen behind Dozier (42), Cano (39), Odor (33), Gyorko (30), Miller (30), and Kinsler (28). If you drafted Schoop for power, you likely were not disappointed, but that does not make my bold prediction correct. (But please keep reading as I get hot in the second half of my predictions). Grade: C

(2) Justin Verlander will win 20 games.

Two predictions in and we reach our second player who did well but failed to make the prediction a success. Verlander finished 10th in MLB with 16 wins. He was the 24th ranked fantasy player after posting a 3.04 ERA, 1.00 whip, and 254 strikeouts.  While the prediction was wrong, you would still be very happy to have drafted Verlander who was coming off a year in which he went 5-8 in only 20 starts; the year before he had a 4.54 era. When you play with fire (predicting unpredictable stats), you get burned, and I'm searching for some aloe as I type. Grade: B-

(3) Victor Martinez will be a top 100 player.

Ouch - a close miss!  V-Mart finished the year as the 106th ranked player. He did bounce back from a poor 2015 (.245 with 11 homers in 120 games) to hit .289 with 27 homers and 86 RBIs. The issue was that he only scored 65 runs despite a .351 OBP. Even though this prediction was technically wrong, V-Mart did finish the year poorly, hitting .235 in Sept/Oct. Because many fantasy seasons ended before then, however, he was likely in the top 100 when your fantasy season ended. As a result, I will consider this a push. Grade: B

(4) Chris Davis will eclipse his career high of 53 homers.

Davis did set a career high this year, but unfortunately it was in strikeouts instead of homers. Davis missed a few games due to an illness which reportedly lingered and zapped some of his power. He also played most of the year with a sore hand that also may have affected his swing. Despite these ailments, he did produce 38 homers. But for someone who hit 47 and 53 long balls two of the prior three seasons, 2016 was a major disappointment. If you drafted Davis for his power, you likely were not happy. A bounceback next year is possible, but this prediction was a clear failure. Grade: D

(5) AJ Ramos outperforms Trevor Rosenthal.

At the time of this prediction, Ramos was the 16th closer taken while Rosenthal was the 4th. Well, this is the first home run among predictions.  Rosenthal imploded as predicted, pitching to a 4.46 era, 1.91 whip, and amassing only 14 saves before losing the closer gig. Ramos, despite some struggles, finished with a very respectable 40 saves, 2.81 era, 1.36 whip and 73ks.  Ramos finished as the 169th ranked player while Rosenthal was 651st. Grade: A

(6) Chris Bassitt will be a top 70 starter.

Unfortunately, there's not much to say here. Bassitt made only five starts before requiring Tommy John surgery.  The good news for fantasy purposes is that you were able to cut bait early. Nonetheless, the injury bug ate this prediction alive. Grade: F

(7) Dustin Pedroia will outperform Matt Carpenter.

At the time of this prediction, Pedroia was going as the 16th second baseman, while Carpenter was going as the 4th. Nonetheless, Pedroia finished as the 48th ranked fantasy player while Carpenter finished as the 148th. Pedroia bounced way back to post a line of .318/105/74/7, while Carpenter regressed in every category to .271/21/81/68/0. Consider this another major win. Grade: A

(8) Mark Trumbo will hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs.

This may have seemed like the boldest prediction of all heading into the year, and like Trumbo, I smashed one out of the park. You could find Trumbo in my first base and outfield sleepers and in my bold prediction column; I was all in. He did not disappoint one bit as he posted an MLB-leading 47 homers to go with a career high 108 RBIs. He also came in with 94 runs and an average of .256, which was above his career mark. Finishing as the 36th ranked player overall, he was one of the biggest fantasy successes this year. Grade: A+

(9) Carlos Beltran will slash .285/30/85/85.

Beltran had hit .233 and .276 with 15 and 19 homers in his two years in New York, with highs of 57 runs and 67 RBIs. Nonetheless, he finished 2016 with a line of .295/29/93/73. That looks pretty darn close to .285/30/85/85 if you ask me! The 10 points extra in average and the eight extra RBIs make up for the one homer and the 12 runs. As a result, my run of successful predictions continues. Grade: A-

(10) Chris Carter will set a new career high in homers (37+)

Carter entered 2016 coming off a year with 24 homers. In three years prior, he hit 37, 29 and 16. That did not stop me from going out on a limb and predicting a new career high. Carter was up to the task, leading the NL (along with Nolan Arenado) with 41 homers . As a player who went undrafted in many leagues, that was quite a treat, and I hope you took advantage. Grade: A+




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