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The All-Star Break is here and hopefully the first half of the season has been good to you. We've seen some pitchers take the next step in their development (Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Martinez, Taijuan Walker) and some who have regressed from their preseason expectations (Jon Lester, Stephen Strasburg, Yordano Ventura).
So what's in store for the second half? Who's going to keep up their success, who's going to regress, and who's going to bounce back? Let's find out.
Editor's note: These rankings are always up for debate and discussion. Got any questions? Bring them by one our weekly chats!
More rankings: Starting Pitchers (Part 2), First Base (1B), Second Base (2B), Third Base (3B), Shortstop (SS), Outfield (Part 1), Outfield (Part 2), Catcher (C), Relief Pitchers (RP)
Starting Pitcher (SP) Rankings
Tier 1: The Truly Elite
1) Max Scherzer
2) Clayton Kershaw
3) Chris Sale
In a league all of their own. I would've been hard pressed to believe that Clayton Kershaw would lose his top spot back in March, but Mad Max Scherzer has certainly earned it. His 1.82 ERA (2nd) and 0.78 WHIP (1st) should have resulted in more than six wins, as evident by his 4.7 WAR (2nd). I expect Scherzer to accrue at least 10 wins in the second half... Chris Sale joins them in my top three due to his dominance of the AL, at one point accruing ten or more strikeouts in eight straight starts.
Tier 2: Elite
4) Zack Greinke
5) Gerrit Cole
6) David Price
7) Madison Bumgarner
8) Felix Hernandez
9) Chris Archer
10) Corey Kluber
Zack Greinke leads baseball with a 1.39 ERA. If he wasn't in Kershaw's shadow, he'd be much higher regarded. I doubt Greinke owners mind. The only thing holding him back from Tier 1 status is the lower K potential (7.65 K/9)... Gerrit Cole has made the leap this first half, racking up 12 wins (1st) with a 2.28 ERA. I expect more of the same in the second half for a Pirates team that believes they're in contention.
Something about Felix Hernandez has bugged me this season, but I haven't been able to determine the exact problem. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, his fastball speed is down, and has actually produced a negative wFB (-2.9). The last time that happened was 2011 when he accrued a 3.47 ERA, which isn't "Elite" material. Regardless, I'm holding the King in any leagues I own him unless someone pays face value. That changeup is still as nasty as ever.
Chris Archer has been phenomenal for a surprising Rays squad, racking up 141 strikeouts (2nd) with a 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He's also only one of four pitchers (Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw) with a K% over 30%.
Want a great example of how deceiving a pitcher's record is? Corey Kluber is 4-9 but has the 2nd highest WAR (3.8) among starting pitchers. I expect the record to balance out in the second half.
Tier 3: Nearly Elite
11) Jose Fernandez
12) Johnny Cueto
13) Sonny Gray
14) Jacob deGrom
15) Matt Harvey
16) Cole Hamels
17) Jordan Zimmermann
18) Carlos Carrasco
19) Jake Arrieta
20) Dallas Keuchel
I'm a big fan of every pitcher on this list, but they each have one or two things holding them back from reaching elite status. Jose Fernandez has looked strong since returning from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is contingent on the Marlins letting Jose finish out the year. When healthy, he's a top 10 pitcher. If you could promise me Johnny Cueto won't get injured he'd belong in Tier Two as well.
Matt Harvey may get all the publicity and the cool nickname, but Jacob deGrom has been the pitcher anchoring that young Mets rotation. His BB% is down, his F-strike % is up, and hitters are making less hard contact off the righty. I'm buying if anyone is selling... Jordan Zimmermann is another example of a pitcher getting overlooked due to his peers. I don't see Zimmermann replicating his outstanding 2014 campaign (2.66 ERA) as his peripheral numbers (BB rate, K rate, F-strike %) are more in line with his 2013 performance (3.25 ERA). A free agent after this year, he's going to get paid top dollar this offseason.
Carlos Carrasco has been somewhat frustrating to own this season, but the numbers imply that his 4.17 ERA is set to go way down in the second half. His FIP (2.83), xFIP (2.75), and SIERA (2.76) all imply that better times ahead. He's also one of six pitchers (Sale, Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, Carrasco) to record a K/9 above 10.0 with a BB/9 below 2.0. In case you wondering, Dallas Keuchel is legit and I'm buying. What a preseason steal (ADP: 240).
Tier 4: Staff Aces
21) Michael Wacha
22) Francisco Liriano
23) Michael Pineda
24) Tyson Ross
25) Jon Lester
26) A.J. Burnett
27) Carlos Martinez
28) Shelby Miller
I would rather have the pitchers listed above as an SP2 for fantasy purposes, but they'd all serve just fine as an SP1 in deeper leagues.
I have a hard time buying the Michael Wacha regression. Sure Wacha doesn't blow hitters away (7.21 K/9) but he just knows how to pitch. His BB/9 rate is down, his GB% is up, and his LD rate is down. If anyone is selling due to injury concerns, then buy. Tyson Ross has somehow maintained a 3.56 ERA while owning a MLB worst 4.60 BB/9 rate. His slider sure had something to do with it; the pitch graded out as third best on the PITCHf/x scale among qualified starters . His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all indicate Ross has better days ahead of him.
It was not fun placing A.J. Burnett this far back on my list. His 1.99 ERA is 2nd in baseball, and he's shown noticeable improvements in his control as his walk rate is down and his first-pitch strike rate is up. The numbers tend to agree that Burnett can sustain this so the only risk is health. The Braves have to be extremely pleased with Shelby Miller's first half. He's shown his run to end 2014 was no fluke, and his increased usage of the cutter has played a huge part of it. His cutter has limited batters to a .170 SLG.
Tier 5: Strong Plays
29) Jason Hammel
30) James Shields
31) Clay Buchholz (DL)
32) Stephen Strasburg (DL)
33) Masahiro Tanaka
34) Lance Lynn
35) Jeff Samardzija
36) Garrett Richards
37) Scott Kazmir
38) John Lackey
39) Jose Quintana
Another group of good pitchers to have on any rotation. James Shields can thank the gopher ball for finding himself in this tier. His 1.37 HR/9 is the highest for Shields since 2010, when recorded a 5.18 ERA. His 10.91 K/9 rate is a career high but so is his 2.91 BB/9 rate. I'm still buying if anyone is selling. Clay Buchholz has performed like a top 20 hurler recently, and the numbers seem to back up his ascension. I still don't think Red Sox fans trust him, but maybe you should.
Lance Lynn has been a stabilizing force for the Cardinals rotation. His 2.53 ERA is good enough for 11th in baseball, and he's showing no signs of letting up. Jeff Samardzija has made great strides in the past month, seeing his ERA drop from 4.92 to 4.02. His .313 BABIP seems high considering there hasn't been an increase in hard contact since last year, so I'm buying a rebound in the second half. Jose Quintana has been a workhouse for the Sox in recent years and looks to eclipse 200 IP for the third straight year. I expect his ERA to remain around 3.69 and the wins (4) to start piling up.
Tier 6: Young Guns and Trust Issues
40) Taijuan Walker
41) Noah Syndergaard
42) Danny Salazar
43) Trevor Bauer
44) Alex Wood
45) Julio Teheran
46) Anibal Sanchez
47) Gio Gonzalez
48) Jake Odorizzi
49) Ubaldo Jimenez
50) Steven Matz (DL)
Taijuan Walker really struggled out of the gate but has come on strong to finish the break. His 10.0% swinging strike percentage is pretty impressive considering he throws his fastball 69% of the time. I'm buying his recent success. Noah Syndergaard has earned his Thor nickname to this point. He's striking out hitters at a high clip (9.05 K/9) while limiting the free passes (1.84 BB/9).
I may be one of the few left on the Julio Teheran train, but I'm not jumping off just yet. Since June 21st Teheran owns a 3.00 ERA. Ubaldo Jimenez is such a roller coaster to own, with dominant starts sprinkled in with five inning outings with a high WHIP. The advanced numbers support Jimenez's early success, but I'd be gauging the trade market during the break to see if you can sell high. Rough news for Steven Matz. The injury moves him to the end of our part one, but depending on how he recovers this ranking could drop.
Part 2 Coming Soon...
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