RADIO
A shortstop that is underperforming expectations, a pitcher that had no expectations, and a second sacker blowing his projections completely out of the water are on tap this week. Which shall we trust more: What we thought we knew heading into the season, or the data that the early season has given us? Without further ado . . .
Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX
A strong speed option at a weak position heading into the year, Andrus has infuriated his owners thus far with a .228 AVG and 3 SB (in four tries). His BABIP seems low for a speedster at .253, and he is actually walking slightly more (6.7% to 7.1%) and striking out less (14% to 12.5%) compared to his 2014 rates. So, regression to the mean will improve his overall line and make owners happy, right?
Maybe not, as there are issues underlying the above numbers. First, Andrus' O-Swing % does not support a higher walk rate or a lower K rate, as he is swinging at 26.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to just 20.7% last year. He is actually hitting them too, posting an O-Contact % of 76.8%, up from 68% a year ago. He might be making contact, but these pitches are out of the zone for a reason - just because you can make contact with them does not mean you should. It is possible that the contact made is not of the quality necessary to produce hits at the MLB level, resulting in disappointing BABIP numbers that are driving down Andrus' entire season. At any rate, the uptick in plate discipline is surely a mirage.
Andrus' batted ball profile also suggests justification for a weak BABIP. After maintaining a career ground ball average of around 58%, Andrus is hitting only 51.7% of his balls onto the ground this year. This would be a positive development for many players, but Andrus has almost no power and many of his new flies (up 6.7%) are of the popup variety - his IFFB% has nearly doubled (8.3%) from a year ago (4.6%). Popups have similar offensive value to strikeouts, and Andrus' legs cannot help him with them.
According to career averages, Andrus' legs do not really help him on grounders either. Despite plus speed, Andrus has only a .242 career BABIP on groundballs, begging the question whether his current mark of .289 may actually be boosted by luck despite seeming plausible for a speedster. His .000 BABIP on flies is as bad as it can be, but his career .128 mark argues that correction will not be major. His .500 BABIP on line drives is poor compared to his career .664 mark, but the possibility that Andrus is making bad contact on pitches he should not be swinging at argues against a full rebound.
For whatever reason, Andrus is killing lefties this season, slashing .325/.372/.475 against them. This might make him a situational play based on matchups, but it sadly appears that Andrus' weak performance so far is the . . .
Verdict: Real Deal
Aaron Harang, SP, PHI
Remember him? Harang has posted a solid 3-2 record with a sparkling ERA of 2.35, a number supported by a FIP of 2.57. His K rate has been mediocre (6.81 K/9), but the walks are low as well (1.88 BB/9). Has he found the fountain of youth at age 37?
Not according to xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching), which stands at a high 3.94. The primary difference between FIP and xFIP is that the former assumes that there are three things a pitcher can control (K, BB, HR) while the latter plugs in a league average 10% HR/FB, normalizing one of the variables. Sometimes, such normalization is wrong: There are players that allow more or less HR than they should on a consistent basis. Harang is not one of them, and his current 2% HR/FB is ridiculously low for a flyball pitcher (45.4% of hits against him are in the air) pitching his home games in Philidelphia. Regression seems extremely likely. His current BABIP against of .255 also does not sync well with a 24.1% liner rate, while his current walk rate would be a career best at age 37. Altogether, Harang likely has a few disastrous outings in his near future.
Stuff wise, Harang is wanting. Using 2014 data to avoid small sample issues, Harang has only two barely above average offerings in his slider and curve, and is using both less frequently than he did in 2014. Unless you believe that Harang has more physical ability at age 37 than he did when he was younger, it is best to label him an . . .
Verdict: Impostor
Dee Gordon, 2B, MIA
Wow! Gordon is currently doing his best Ted Williams impersonation, batting .422 with 12 SB and 6 CS. His walks are up slightly (4.8% to 5.9%), but his strikeouts are way down (16.5% to 11.8%). Unfortunately, that is where the support for the second coming of Honus Wagner ends. Despite the better plate discipline numbers, Gordon is actually swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone: his O-Swing % has risen from 32.9% last year to 39.7% this. His contact rate on such pitches is steady at 79%, and while it obviously has not hurt him the way it has Andrus it still calls into question the improved K and BB rates. His contact rate is up in the zone (92% to 95.1%), but the number was already so high that it should not explain why a questionable hitter entering the year has transformed into a Hall of Famer.
Gordon's insane performance is better explained by a BABIP of .474, a number unsustainable no matter how much speed the player has. Gordon's speed has allowed him to post a career .292 BABIP on worm killers, a figure nearly 60 points higher than league average. That number pales in comparison to his current .407 mark, however, meaning regression will sting despite the still strong destination. His current .200 BABIP on flies also figures to regress to his career .129 figure, while his current .783 BABIP on line drives easily dwarfs his .641 career mark. The liners may carry additional regression risk, as his liner rate is currently a sky high 25% against a career rate of 21.7%. Gordon has no history of such an elite line drive rate, so many of those liners should turn back into essentially useless flyballs. All of these factors will conspire to drag Gordon's BABIP back to mortal levels.
According to a new Fangraphs metric, Gordon rarely hits the ball particularly hard (18.4%) or softly (20.4%), earning a "medium" classification 61.2% of the time. This could well be the worst case scenario for Gordon, as hard hit balls are obviously beneficial while a slow roller is a sure hit with his speed. This stat is new and its predictive qualities are very much in question, but it does seem to add to the notion that Gordon is not anywhere near this good.
Finally, why does Gordon have only 12 SB? His success rate has been a poor 66% - requiring a 10% uptick merely to help his team - but even still he should have far more attempts based on how often he has been able to reach first. Speed was the one thing fantasy owners expected out of Gordon, and he has apparently not been as interested in running as he has been in the past. So far, the inflated average has made up for this deficiency, but a regressed BABIP will drive down his average and cut down his SB opportunities when his owners will need them most. All things considered, Gordon looks like fool's gold, or put another way . . .
Verdict: Impostor
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